December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Looks like I am watching football and not chaining up the snow plow now. February should be a good month. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks Whet

 

A bit better than last nights 0Z run.  Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified.  Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels.  I get buried in a pattern like this.  But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

A bit better than last nights 0Z run.  Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified.  Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels.  I get buried in a pattern like this.  But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone.

Much lower heights compared to the 06z. Still not enough blocking though.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks Whet

 

Hopefully stormy too. ⛈ batten down the Christmas decorations

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

A bit better than last nights 0Z run.  Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified.  Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels.  I get buried in a pattern like this.  But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone.

It's definitely not the worst pattern in the world. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Trend over the last 3 runs.

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Trend over the last 3 runs.

 

Now that is a lovely trend! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Trend over the last 3 runs.

 

It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF ensembles have a similar trend.   Maybe Ventrice's IBM model will be wrong, and there was something off with last nights runs.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Similar trend with the Canadian.

 

[MossMan]

Jesse’s favorite Cliff Mass blog post of all time? 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

[FroYoBro]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Jesse’s favorite Cliff Mass blog post of all time? 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

I’m starting to think that Tim is just Cliff’s alter ego. 

[Deweydog]

Seven years ago today it SNOWED!

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seven years ago today it SNOWED!

My old Suburban had frost on it!! Does that count? 

[snow_wizard]

Right now it appears the challenge will be to join the mid latitude offshore ridging with the high latitude block being depicted for week 2.  If they join things could get very interesting.  At any rate a very cold theme is emerging for Alaska.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seven years ago today it SNOWED!

And of course I was in Texas missing the coldest temps here since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still haven’t experienced a temp below 12F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also I sadly think Ventrice will be right. Gonna have to wait a while longer.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And of course I was in Texas missing the coldest temps here since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still haven’t experienced a temp below 12F.

It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter.

It's unlikely I will experience anything colder for the rest of my life.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is far from terrible at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's unlikely I will experience anything colder for the rest of my life.

No it's not.

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My old Suburban had frost on it!! Does that count? 

Is that from this morning?

 

EDIT:  I just noticed the 2013 part of the time stamp.   I am just surprised he would save a pic of frost.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Is that from this morning?

7 years ago... its date stamped.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Merry Christmas  

 

 

Doesn't really line up with the model runs we've been seeing.  We shall see.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Doesn't really line up with the model runs we've been seeing.  We shall see.

Thinking it lined up with last  night's runs.  Riding  was  flat in the long term.  But today's  trends  are better, so maybe the IBM model  will be wrong.

[Gradient Keeper]

FWIW, I've seen Ventrice be wrong many a time, or rather the IBM model. It's going to be wrong again.

 

12z EURO! WHATTTTT!

18z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Yep, probably the same thing. They’re notorious for just quitting while driving. They checked it out a couple years and said it wasn’t affected but I’m skeptical.

My buddy has a 2013.  He said he found the recall, entered his VIN online and it said he was eligible.  He then called the dealer, told them what happened, then played dumb "I heard there may be a recall..."  He said he had to pay for his towing to the dealer.  They had the work approved the same day and the new engine in within a week

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the 12z CFS likes the idea of swinging the AK cold down here in late December.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter.

On the other hand the chances are probably above average given the robust Nina and all.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Jim, are you able to see the EPS at WB?  It is really slow on weathermodels.com, as are the other parts of the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

That weak system/front did not mix out the Columbia Basin cold pool, in fact, it has strengthened. Nice.

925mb temps

[Omegaraptor]

 

[MossMan]

I now have windy drizzle. 
still 46 degrees. 
.02” on the day so far!

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This run is more like the 18z than the 00z so far. Though some key differences: GOA trough is further south, heights over the Bering Strait and extreme eastern Russia are much higher, western Canada is troughier, and AK is a complete reversal. Monitoring for the sake of having nothing better to do... #weenietime

The bolded, by itself, is not a great thing for WAFz/blocking, FWIW. A persistent (and/or anomalously strong) low over Okhotsk Sea/NE Asia is what I look for as a precursor to high latitude blocking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mild day, up to 48. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

That would be fortunate timing. After mid/late Dec, tropics/GWO become favorable for -PNA once again during the 2nd/3rd week of January; under evolving wave train climo. Lots of potential going forward, and it doesn’t look like a thread the needle situation either. There’s room for error.  

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Jim, are you able to see the EPS at WB?  It is really slow on weathermodels.com, as are the other parts of the ECMWF.

Here is the 12Z EPS... note the last frame has not loaded and its been stuck for about 10 minutes.  

 

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Didn't like his next tweet though. 

There’s an MJO/CCKW excursion east of the dateline during the first part of January, so regardless of what happens upstairs, that’s a (relatively) +PNA window.

But it’s mostly passed by the ~ 10th (+/- a few days). Can’t expect models to fully grasp that progression a month in advance. Assuming I’m seeing it correctly, which isn’t necessarily the case.

[Fircrest]

13 hours ago, jakerepp said:

It was a 2011 Sonata, rated the least reliable car since 2010 by car complaints.com. 

My son's friend had the same thing happen to him while driving.  It was a Sonata, don't remember the year, but it was somewhere in that time frame. Eventually the dealer replaced the engine at no cost.  It just took them a long time to actually do it.  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Merry Christmas  

 

 

Christmas will be a huge torch East of the Rockies. Take that to the bank. Everything in the system favors such an outcome.

Whether it’s correspondingly cold in the west, or a steambath 1999 type pattern with AK vortex, is less certain. The former seems more likely to me, but the IO is a bit more active than I’d like at the moment. Don’t want too much convection there.

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

My son's friend had the same thing happen to him while driving.  It was a Sonata, don't remember the year, but it was somewhere in that time frame. Eventually the dealer replaced the engine at no cost.  It just took them a long time to actually do it.  

Heck I’d probably take that. Just buy something ahead of time and wait for the engine to be replaced and eventually sell it.