December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[Clinton]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

 

The west shift needs to stop.

No doubt, Need that HP in the Atlantic to back off a bit.

[CentralNebWeather]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control dropping a lot of ice and snow.  Has a significant west shift.

What the heck?  That really goes west. I’m more confused about this storm than any I’ve tracked. 

[Clinton]

Me too, if the west shift doesn't stop you'll get this part also lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No doubt, Need that HP in the Atlantic to back off a bit.

So if I’m understanding this, the HP won’t really effect the initial part of the storm?  When does it become more apparent?  This is fascinating. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

So if I’m understanding this, the HP won’t really effect the initial part of the storm?  When does it become more apparent?  This is fascinating. 

It's there for the first storm but that energy isn't cut off from the Jet stream.  The second low is cut off, so it will move around the ridge much like a hurricane would.  Thats what I think there are some smarter people than me on here that may explain better.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Clinton said:

It's there for the first storm but that energy isn't cut off from the Jet stream.  The second low is cut off, so it will move around the ridge much like a hurricane would.  Thats what I think there are some smarter people than me on here that may explain better.

Thanks, that makes sense. I was wondering why there was such a spread. Cut off lows have a mind of their own. 

[Clinton]

Big shift west on the 6z Euro Mean for second storm.

[Stormhunter87]

So OAX is not really agreeing with CMC or Euro. More the NAM and GFS. They are staying north with this.

[Stormhunter87]

WPC is also going north with this now. And their maps are a blend of all the models.

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah definitely going NAM and GFS, favoring winter mix all afternoon and night.

[centralweather44]

13 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Yeah definitely going NAM and GFS, favoring winter mix all afternoon and night.

I wouldn’t be shocked with this outcome. Seems like this has become the norm for us in southeast Nebraska. The larger storms always seem to be a bit to warm. Good thing is we are getting moisture at least. Being 8+ inches down on the year I’ll take whatever we can get 

[bud2380]

NAM still way northwest. Doesn’t even barely snow in northeast Iowa. 

[bud2380]

Canadian RDPS continues to be further south and colder. 

[bud2380]

RDPS with 10” for Iowa city. 

[Clinton]

12z RDPS

[bud2380]

Well the Canadian models have been consistent. I hope it’s on to something with the depth and extent of the cold air. 

[bud2380]

GFs with a big shift south. Brings heavy snow all the way to I80 in Iowa. Looks more like the Canadian. It does change over to freezing rain though whereas the Canadian keeps it snow or sleet. Big improvement though. 

[bud2380]

Considering the thermal issues the GFS has, this is very encouraging. It’s possible it’s still overdoing the warm air. ARX mentioned in their AFD with the more progressive nature of the system, the warm air draw is less of a concern. 

[Money]

Let’s see what wave 2 does 

[Grizzcoat]

Was just going to say the same thing on thermals. Good sign.

[bud2380]

2nd wave is really getting its act together by hour 105. Looks like it’s poised to be further west this run. 

[Money]

Yup. Definitely going to be further NW than 6z we’ll see if it runs into a wall like previous runs showed 

[bud2380]

At hour 126, Low is near St Louis. NE MO and SE IA look to get hit hard. 

[bud2380]

The 850 line briefly gets as far NW as Waterloo where surface temps are in the teens. 

[Clinton]

Looks great for areas east of KC.

[Clinton]

This may be the first time a winter storm has aproached mby from the SE.

[bud2380]

Weakens quickly when it gets further north. 

[Money]

How often do you see a storm move N-NNW out of the gulf? 

[Hawkeye]

parallel GFS also a bit south with wave #1

[BMT]

Glad we saw a nudge south there.

[Hawkeye]

Parallel GFS for the second wave.  This system is coming out of the deep south and really pulls in the warm air aloft.

[Hawkeye]

Parallel GFS again.  When it reaches Iowa there is a bunch of mixed crap.  As it leaves it's occluding and all heavy snow.  It'd be a gut punch to get mix from this.

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[Money]

Someone is gonna get a lot of ice from this especially if there’s snow cover in Iowa/Illinois from the first wave 

[Clinton]

12z GFS parallel

[bud2380]

Hard to put much stock in wave 2 at this point. So much will depend on how wave 1 ends up. I’m glad there’s more to track though. It would be rare in these parts to get two major storms two days apart. I can’t think of the last time that happened. 

[bud2380]

GDPS looks like it continues to focus on southern Iowa with heavy snow. It’s been that way for several runs in a row. 

[Money]

FYI gem is way southeast with wave 2 and doesn’t get any precip into Iowa or Wisconsin 

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

I’ve been trying to lightly follow this system, and I am so confused looking at some of these maps