December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[bud2380]

Euro looks very similar to Uk and GFS v16 and to a lesser extent the Canadian. But nothing like the GFS. 

[bud2380]

Euro looks like it’s thinking about developing a second wave. 

[Hawkeye]

The trend of a faster northern wave and slower southern wave continues.  Plus, the Euro is more robust with the northern energy than any other model... still showing a bowling ball dropping out of Canada.

[bud2380]

Definitely some differences this run. A little flatter west to east than previous runs. But still brings too much warm air for my area. Turns to all heavy rain. Which is sad considering the low stays so far south. 

[Hawkeye]

This is very far from being locked into any scenario.  The Euro needs to back off the strength of the northern energy so the southern energy can rev up and cut north like others are showing.

[bud2380]

Significant reduction in snow for Nebraska. Also increases in northeast Iowa. I may have to go visit my parents. 

[Money]

Euro is about to go with a bomb on the southern wave at hr 126

[james1976]

Man I really hope the Euro stays similar. Would be amazing for my area.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Significant reduction in snow for Nebraska. Also increases in northeast Iowa. I may have to go visit my parents. 

How does it look further east?

[Hawkeye]

Even with the constant evolving of the system, models are pretty steady showing northern Iowa getting heavy snow from the initial surge of moisture.

[Money]

Euro eventually merges the waves together and gets it down to 989 in MI. Not far off from a bomb more west 

[Money]

Western and central MI do really well. Chicago even gets 6+ from the secondary wave 

[centralweather44]

Definite bump north. At least for LNK and significantly lower totals as well vs the 00z. Not liking the trends for here but someone is going to score big. 

[snowstorm83]

Just now, centralweather44 said:

Definite bump north. At least for LNK and significantly lower totals as well vs the 00z. Not liking the trends for here but someone is going to score big. 

12z euro looks nice by itself but not so much when the trend has been 26" to 21" to 7". 

[centralweather44]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

12z euro looks nice by itself but not so much when the trend has been 26" to 21" to 7". 

Agreed. By Monday we’re going to be down to a forecasted dusting. It has been fun to track over the long weekend at least.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro continues to be a crap nickel & dimer for me. The only plus side is that the grass would finally be covered.

[The Snowman]

So at this point I believe Omaha is in a 0-20" range still, maybe if we're lucky we can cut that down to a 3-17" range the day before this thing starts!

[CentralNebWeather]

My local weather apps keep lowering snow amounts. At this rate, I may get a dusting on Tuesday. The models today haven’t been good for my area. 

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

So at this point I believe Omaha is in a 0-20" range still, maybe if we're lucky we can cut that down to a 3-17" range the day before this thing starts!

Really makes it tough for forecasting to have such spread in different models and huge changes from one run to the next. 

[The Snowman]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Really makes it tough for forecasting to have such spread in different models and huge changes from one run to the next. 

Only solution I think we're missing from the plethora that models have spit out is the Day After Tomorrow outcome

[snowstorm83]

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Really makes it tough for forecasting to have such spread in different models and huge changes from one run to the next. 

Really just a joke. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

[Clinton]

@mlgamer I think the control looks about right for our area lol.

[james1976]

I like where I'm sitting. 3 days out....what could go wrong? Lol

[Tom]

12z Euro...for those of us hoping the second wave develops...

[Hawkeye]

My area gets less snow this Euro run as it ticked north with the initial wave.

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamer I think the control looks about right for our area lol.

I guess you just have to laugh. I’ve seen those maps in my area more times than I can count. I’m at the point now that I won’t believe any model with this storm until I see flakes falling from the sky. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I guess you just have to laugh. I’ve seen those maps in my area more times than I can count. I’m at the point now that I won’t believe any model with this storm until I see flakes falling from the sky. 

That's exactly where I'm at.

[CentralNebWeather]

I want all the models to jump on the retrograding low and just end 2020 with the oddest storm ever. 

[bud2380]

I feel more confused than ever on what is going to happen. I feel like northern Iowa is in a great spot. Outside of that, I’m not sure. 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I feel more confused than ever on what is going to happen. I feel like northern Iowa is in a great spot. Outside of that, I’m not sure. 

I’m with you. 

[mlgamer]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamer I think the control looks about right for our area lol.

Yeah, it's always exciting - in a sick kinda way - to see what new ways the models come up with to miss us...lol

[indianajohn]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...for those of us hoping the second wave develops...

yes please!!!

 

[Minny_Weather]

Hell I'd take 6" out of this with how abysmal this season has been for NoDak lol

[The Snowman]

FWIW, while our main energy is still offshore, the second piece to this puzzle - the energy that will eventually dive south from Canada - is being ingested to a degree via Alaska's RAOB network. Whether that will actually make a difference in the end is, of course, the big question.

[bud2380]

A little off topic but the 18z NAM is showing about an inch of snow tomorrow for portions of eastern Iowa including Iowa city and Cedar Rapids 

[snowstorm83]

LNK 12z GEFS: 5" mean with a 0.2" to 13" range. That's downright terrible as we're approaching the short range time frame. EPS 6" mean and 1.5" to 15" range. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...for those of us hoping the second wave develops...

That'd break the matrix..

[Money]

18z NAM at ht 84 and 12z gfs at 90 have the low in nearly identical spot. GFS is 7 mb stronger though 

[snowstorm83]

Euro would give Memphis a white New Years with that second wave haha. Would be the 20 year anniversary of the 2000 white NYE/D.