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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


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Models have been consistent in showing a very strong storm for Tuesday/Wednesday next week for several days now.  Models have been fairly consistent, but have of course wobbled.  The biggest questions/concerns at this point are of course storm track and the extent of warm air lifting into the storm.  There appears to be cold air at the surface to work with at the beginning of the storm, but with warm air moving in, all p-types are on the table with this one.  Here is the GFS model for reference.

 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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2" hour rates at DSM!! KDSM 291854Z 10009KT 1/8SM R31/1400V1600FT SN FZFG VV004 M05/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP217 SNINCR 2/3 P0019 T10501067

Doesn’t get much more spread the wealth in the Midwest. 

7" here

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Is a 200 mile shift North too much to ask for??

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario.  Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario.

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario.  Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario.

It's interesting, It would be ok if it was stronger and colder.  I may end up rooting for a north shift lol.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

It's interesting, It would be ok if it was stronger and colder.  I may end up rooting for a north shift lol.

TBH, at this range, the ensemble mean is the way to go...I'm not to thrilled with this storm at all....just gotta feeling its going to track right over me...

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario.  Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario.

I think this solution does line up well with the LRC and wouldn't surprise me a bit if it verified. We'll see...

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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It's getting more likely for me to see strong/severe T-storms rather than any significant snowfall. Pretty crazy...

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Looking at the snow cover map you'd think it was still November, so a November low track can't really surprise us.  Maybe next month for most of us.  ☹️

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This just reeks of a Dakotas/MN special. Maybe some front end snow/ice for us then rain. 
 

On an anecdotal note, can you really expect a strong-ish surface low with a ton of moisture to not track through Iowa in some capacity?

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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From FGF:

Confidence is growing in a potential Colorado low-type system to
move into the Midwest around mid week. The majority of ensemble
guidance from CMCE, ENS, and GEFS deepens a southern stream upper
trough out of the southwestern CONUS into the central CONUS. Exact
track and strength of this system is still unknown as spread is
large (greater than 60%) with its evolution within ensembles. There
is a notably large QPF footprint both in spatially and magnitude
already being depicted, which can be analogous to impact
footprint. While two thirds of all ensemble members keep the bulk
of precip south and east of the area, there is around a third of
total members that bring the northern precip shield into the area
around Wed/Thu timeframe. Each ensemble system contributes an
equal share to this third of total solutions, so there isn`t one
particular model that is competing against the others.

With this analysis in mind, this midweek system cannot be completely
discounted in possibly affecting the eastern North Dakota and
northwest/west-central Minnesota area. So while the probability of
impacts from this potential mid week system is low, it should
continue to be monitored; especially considering the potential for
this system to bring notable impacts under its track.
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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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We don't even get the front-end thump anymore because the flow is straight out of the south and the surge of moisture goes up through the plains.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In the end- calling my shot now, Brookings,SD to DLH special. North shore of MN gets 1-2' with 6-12"  50-75 miles either side of a line from near Brookings to Duluth.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm guessing the northern solutions will hold until the energy moves on shore Sunday evening or so...but even that may not change anything.

If this misses I'll being moving into the new year still looking for my first full inch of snow (0.6" so far).

Is it too early to start talking about the winter of 11-12??? (only 3.1" here that winter) 😬😒

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Definitely biased but wonder if this another head-fake that models do around this forecast timeframe, where they get a solution ~10 days out, lose it 5-8 days out and get it back to some extent when it happens. At the same time the pattern seems to favor a sharp cutter like what today's models are showing ... only real certainty is that there'll be a lot of model-watching in the next few days!

 

Merry Christmas Eve to those who celebrate, also!

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9 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Thank you @gabel23. I can't complain with that run but man, that north bleed needs to stop for central and eastern Iowa members. 

No kidding! I wish we could get a west East slider so everyone can get into the action! I’m sitting pretty good but lots of time for this to change. 

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

A potentially more impactful storm system then arrives for Tuesday. Deterministic model runs have been fairly consistent in showing a closed upper low with attendant surface low passing through Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Being 5-6 days out, there is inherently still quite a bit of uncertainty, but ensemble guidance indicates a relatively high likelihood of impactful snow Tuesday/Wednesday over the entire forecast area. In fact, the European ensemble average actually shows 6-8 inches of snow stretching across a large portions of the area. There are lots of details left to work out (storm track, precip types, etc), but this is definitely an impressive signal, and those with holiday travel plans should monitor upcoming forecasts very closely. Conditions should start to improve on Wednesday, although this could change if the aforementioned system slows down at all. Therefore, we will keep a slight chance for snow through Wednesday night.

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