December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFanOMA said:

I'm going with this will be a bust for nebraska.  

I think you are going to be correct. The problem was that models showed such unbelievably high amounts, that now everything else is a disappointment. I was expecting those, but we’ve gone completely in the opposite direction. 

[Minny_Weather]

Oh my God, lock in NAM.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I thought the NAM was crap at this range? It’s another model to look at but I’m not looking at the NAM models too closely yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

NAM has nothing but sleet and freezing rain lifting northeast through the CR/IC area.

I saw that. Not good for anyone. 

[bud2380]

It’s the NAM. It’s not to be taken seriously at this hour. 

[Clinton]

48 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I hope we have better clarity in the Dec 28 00z and 12z runs with the energy coming on shore tomorrow evening looks like. Maybe just more model chaos until then.

@Tom or @Clinton may be able to speak to this better, but looking back at the LRC it seemed there was support for the initial northern wave but nothing really for a strong southern wave (roughly Nov 13-15). I dunno...just looking for clues to pass the time...lol

On Nov 14th a strong wave riding up the cold front produced severe weather near my place.

it did end up producing strong thunderstorms in our area.

I don't have much on the Northern piece, we had a strong +AO and the northern energy was up near Canada,  Maybe Tom has some surrface maps from the Nov 14th time frame,

[clintbeed1993]

You guys are making my head hurt. Until the EURO backs off there's no need to panic. King has been steady for 4 days. GFS and Canadian should not be taken seriously as they've been all over the place and GFS is terrible at thermals which is very important in this storm. NAM is not in range. RELAX

[Hawkeye]

The ICON digs the southern energy so far south the surface low forms in the gulf.

[Clinton]

0z ICON brings a low off the Gulf along the front like the Euro Control does.  ICON is a little further east.

[bud2380]

RDPS

[centralweather44]

Has the icon been close on any of the systems all year? Only asking as I don’t follow it much. 

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

You guys are making my head hurt. Until the EURO backs off there's no need to panic. King has been steady for 4 days. GFS and Canadian should not be taken seriously as they've been all over the place and GFS is terrible at thermals which is very important in this storm. NAM is not in range. RELAX

No it hasn't.  Euro drastically backed off on amounts in the main swath compared to what it had a few days ago.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z RGEM  

 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z RGEM  

 

I like what the RGEM is doing over Texas at hr 84.

[Money]

Gfs coming in south 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I like what the RGEM is doing over Texas at hr 84.

Would be that low that ended up retrograding on the 12z Canadian?

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Would be that low that ended up retrograding on the 12z Canadian?

Now that would be awesome but more likely what the Euro Control had earlier today.  Some snow is better than no snow.

[Money]

This is the farthest south gfs has had this low in awhile 

[OKwx2k4]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON brings a low off the Gulf along the front like the Euro Control does.  ICON is a little further east.

Nice. Still reeling me in to this isn't it?

[OKwx2k4]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No it hasn't.  Euro drastically backed off on amounts in the main swath compared to what it had a few days ago.

Yeah, those are very much more than subtle changes.

[snowstorm83]

GFS is colder, but still a big fat rainer with some ice for most. Step in the right direction at least. Now watch Euro jump way north.

[Hawkeye]

GFS continues to hold back the southern energy more each run.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Nice. Still reeling me in to this isn't it?

Has a low coming out of the Gulf but moves it NE instead of north.

[Clinton]

GFS has snow in Galveston wtf

[Hawkeye]

ICON and GFS are digging the southern energy way too far south to be any good for Iowa.

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS is about to crush Chicago. Low moving due north at hr 132

Nope.  Once it gets to the Ohio river, it meets the westerlies and weakens and gets turned eastward.

[Clinton]

The GFS was weird.  What I take away is that it was slower and further west with Gulf low.

[NH4NU]

A broad swath of 1.3"-1.75" QPF through 84hr on GFS. Just needing that cool air! 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2020122700&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

[whatitdo]

From meteorologist Mark Torregrosa for fellow Michiganders:

”Right now your time period of Thursday morning looks warm enough for rain from either of the two models we trust out that far.  Definitely keep an eye on it with me and ask again Tuesday-ish.  The time period in question would be Friday when it could get cold enough for some snow if the storm is still around.  But Thursday morning is center in the warm flow.  Looks like it could be 10-20 degrees warmer than normal Thursday morning.  That would be hard to have any wintry precip.  Hope this helps!”

[Hawkeye]

00z parallel GFS

[bud2380]

Canadian way south. 
 

parallel GFS has front end snow, followed by a ton of rain, then massive snowstorm on the secondary wave. Crazy run. 

[Clinton]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

00z parallel GFS

It would be great if the New GFS got this right and had it before any other model.  Plus it crushes me.

[Stormy]

I don’t pay any attention to Kuchera ratios since large systems usually don’t have high ratios except on the northern and back sides. 
 

I’m not sure why my NWS point forecast still has no wording for a mix or rain, but instead it’s all snow. Maybe they see something I don’t.

[NH4NU]

Canadian almost identical to it's 12z afternoon run also a bit stronger. Overall great hit for about everyone Lincoln on west in Nebraska. 

[bud2380]

Canadian. More brewing with the second wave after this. This storm is crazy. Still no idea what to expect. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, bud2380 said:

Canadian. More brewing with the second wave after this. This storm is crazy. Still no idea what to expect. 

I’d take this in a heartbeat. 

[Hawkeye]

Major change from the Canadian with the second storm.  It digs much farther south and looks very similar to the GFS.  It cuts off and cuts north, but then meets the westerlies and shears eastward.

[Clinton]

CMC crush me Chicago and Mich.  @OKwx2k4 you are in it.

[Clinton]

0z GFS V16

[Clinton]

CMC also slower most of the snow with the southern wave comes Friday.