Snowshoe Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Image from the Western UP Visitors Bureau. Unreal!!! "Honey, where'd did you park the car?" Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Areas near Buffalo are supposed to get 5-6 FEET of snow from the lake effect event. Here's text from the warning:ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.would love to experience an event like that someday... special weather statement issued: ...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERNHALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...* AT 1030 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THESHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHBUFFALO TO DEPEW AND EASTWARD TOWARDS DARIEN AND ALEXANDER. THESOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS HUGGING THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINETHEN EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...THEBOSTON HILLS...AND WYOMING COUNTY.TRAVEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND FROM SOUTHBUFFALO INTO THE NEARBY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS IS IMPOSSIBLE.LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT ALL ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE AND CLOGGED WITHSNOW AND STUCK VEHICLES. DO NOT VENTURE OUT WITHIN THIS AREA. IF YOULIVE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE BAND OF SNOW DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE INTOTHE AFFECTED AREAS...YOU WILL BECOME TRAPPED. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe. This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm. Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe. This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm. Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11Lancaster, NY already with 48"! Insane amounts of snow in less then 24 hours. I can only imagine what the scenes out there look like. I'd love to be there right now to experience what they do with LES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe. This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm. Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11Like I don't even understand what's going on in that picture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Like I don't even understand what's going on in that picture... That the edge of the LES band that is pounding away at the southern Buffalo metro right now. Looks like a fog bank or a dust storm! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Looks like a tsunami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 We are heading towards a stormy pattern during Thanksgiving week and looks like a colder one as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month.When is this forecasted Tom? I know it's a ways out and could change but just curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Thanksgiving ish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 The way we saw the cold hit in early/mid November and now how the Euro is showing the last week to finish, it is looking very similar to what the JAMSTEC model was predicting back on its Sept/Oct runs.The heart of the cold shots sliding down the east side of the Rockies with storm systems riding along the boundary from the Plains to the Lakes. With the Pacific train of storms merging with the cold air, this has a snow lovers dream written all over it. Edit: JAMSTEC's updated November run will be later this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 The way we saw the cold hit in early/mid November and now how the Euro is showing the last week to finish, it is looking very similar to what the JAMSTEC model was predicting back on its Sept/Oct runs.The heart of the cold shots sliding down the east side of the Rockies with storm systems riding along the boundary from the Plains to the Lakes. With the Pacific train of storms merging with the cold air, this has a snow lovers dream written all over it. Edit: JAMSTEC's updated November run will be later this week.you're the best tom and i am learning a lot by this fourm than some of our mets and the way the jamestac is showing that these storm systems will ride this boundry so that means we are looking at more of these storm systems for months to come. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Let's ride the storm train and break all time records along the way! Could it be like the winter of 76? I bet worse! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Let's ride the storm train and break all time records along the way! Could it be like the winter of 76? I bet worse!A very similar SST pattern has been setting up compared to the infamous '76/'77 & '77/'78 U.S. Winters. Notice the cold patch of water stretching from East Asia towards the cold pool north of Hawaii. BTW, I'll post the Oct 24th SST to the current SST and you can see the waters warming near the NW NAMER coastline and pushing the cold pool a little farther west where we want it to be. This is most likely happening due to the seasonal feedback of the jet stream and if you get that cold pool centered where it is now, that pumps the ridge and ushers down the cold. You also create the split flow allowing for storm systems coming off the Pacific to hit the west coastline (which is an El-Nino trait as well). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tomorrow mornings commute could be a dicy one in N IL/N IN...then S MI gets in on a couple inches of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I just can't get excited about this inch or so after looking at the Buffalo LES.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tomorrow mornings commute could be a dicy one in N IL/N IN...then S MI gets in on a couple inches of snow. Nice to add more snow on the books for November. (^Agree with you Tony!) Can you imagine if a LES snow situation like Western NY is getting was possible in NE IL!? From what I've been reading the band is supposed to go right back into the heart of Buffalo later on. The pictures I've been seeing look like they're from another world! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 ^Geos, I can't even imagine if that happened here in Chicago. I have been in some heavy LES before but hours and hours on end is just unbelievable. Imagine the snow drifts they will have to deal with and where will they put all that snow that are on the streets to begin with!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 ^Geos, I can't even imagine if that happened here in Chicago. I have been in some heavy LES before but hours and hours on end is just unbelievable. Imagine the snow drifts they will have to deal with and where will they put all that snow that are on the streets to begin with!! There's no doubt that the City of Chicago would have to dump snow into the lake and Chicago River to get rid of it! I think they did that after the Ground Hog's Day Blizzard if I'm not mistaken. One thing that wouldn't be good is, that most houses are not built to withstand such a snow load, unlike that area of NY. Another view of the snow band from the air. WBEN Buffalo Failed to reach 20° today. Lol, that's one thing Buffalo will never beat us at - the cold! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Does it look like we will be getting another arctic blast around Thanksgiving? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 There's no doubt that the City of Chicago would have to dump snow into the lake and Chicago River to get rid of it! I think they did that after the Ground Hog's Day Blizzard if I'm not mistaken. One thing that wouldn't be good is, that most houses are not built to withstand such a snow load, unlike that area of NY. Another view of the snow band from the air. WBEN Buffalo Failed to reach 20° today. Lol, that's one thing Buffalo will never beat us at - the cold!These pics dont even look like snow! crazy stuff! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month.The parallel gfs is showing the same storm on the 18z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Already getting some flurry action here. 8th day in a row with a trace or accumulating snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 SWS for tomorrow morning's snowfall.Any other time of winter it wouldn't be needed, but as we all know some people forget how to drive in snow! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL909 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-020-022-023-INZ001-002-010-011-190900-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER909 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014...PERIOD OF SNOW TO IMPACT WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSSNORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...LIKELY IMPACTING THEMORNING COMMUTE. OCCASIONAL BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW AREPOSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES WITHINTHE HEAVIER SNOW. TIMING OF THE SNOW WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 9 AM CSTTIME FRAME...WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A HARVARD TO ROMEOVILLETO GIFFORD INDIANA LINE LIKELY OBSERVING THE OCCASIONALLY MOREINTENSE SNOWFALL...WHILE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY TAPERSFURTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH ONLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOWIS POSSIBLE...THE RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRIEFLY HIGHERSNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON AREAROADWAYS. ALL MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS SLICK CONDITIONS ANDREDUCED VISIBILITY COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Already getting some flurry action here. 8th day in a row with a trace or accumulating snow.So did I earlier today, tomorrow will be Day 9 with the light snow coming in the morning. Pretty awesome for November, certainly one I will remember for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 I wonder what the average snow cover for the U.S. for this time of year is.Just found out the 12 year average is 14.2% for today's date... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Just dug up the latest snowfall totals from W NY. Totally epic! NEW YORK...ERIE COUNTY... 1 SE LANCASTER 60.0 600 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 S CHEEKTOWAGA 51.0 330 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SW ALDEN 48.0 1252 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ORCHARD PARK 48.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E LANCASTER 47.0 519 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA 3 WSW ELMA 46.0 1215 PM 11/18 COCORAHS DEPEW 42.0 1200 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER LANCASTER 42.0 900 AM 11/18 NWS EMPLOYEE 1 N HAMBURG 37.0 330 PM 11/18 NWS EMPLOYEE EAST AURORA 36.0 707 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ALDEN 34.0 106 PM 11/18 NWS EMPLOYEE WEST FALLS 29.0 318 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA 3 SW BLASDELL 27.0 335 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER SLOAN 16.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER DERBY 14.0 100 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER CLARENCE 6.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER KENMORE 3.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 N CHEEKTOWAGA 2.0 125 PM 11/18 PUBLIC Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 I like how 3 N of Cheektowaga had only 2" but 2 S of Cheektowaga has had 51". That's only 5 miles difference but 49" of snow difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 00z GFS Par with a Turkey Day snow potential along an arctic boundary.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 I like how 3 N of Cheektowaga had only 2" but 2 S of Cheektowaga has had 51". That's only 5 miles difference but 49" of snow difference That's the kind of gradient you'd see going up a mountain! Some of those pictures hardly look real that I've seen today. Another epic one. Taken tonight. Almost look like there is lightning going on in the clouds, but I think it is the city lights from underneath the clouds. Anyways, starting to see the radar returns getting closer to the northwest now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Something to watch for around Thanksgiving...Euro has been hinting at it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 The 00z GGEM is seeing it also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 That's the kind of gradient you'd see going up a mountain! Some of those pictures hardly look real that I've seen today. Another epic one. Taken tonight. Almost look like there is lightning going on in the clouds, but I think it is the city lights from underneath the clouds. Anyways, starting to see the radar returns getting closer to the northwest now.That picture is epic. Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 The 00z GGEM is seeing it also... Would love to see a Thanksgiving night/Black Friday snowstorm! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Would love to see a Thanksgiving night/Black Friday snowstorm! It would be festive to see it snowing outside while sipping on a cocktail next to a fireplace with family and friends! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 GGEM showing the same type of thing just farther south: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_32.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_35.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 That's it, I'm moving to Buffalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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