Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 ICON is on board! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 7 Not seeing it this run just a return to La Nina, which is fine. (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 A step back in terms of 850mb temps Gorge, Columbia Basin. Onshore flow is roughly as cold as previous runs, but not enough for snow levels lower than 2000-1000'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I've noticed for a few weeks that whatever positive changes we see with 00z and 6z runs, the 12z run following them reverts away from that. This has been quite common recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 8 522 dam heights Bellingham 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I've noticed for a few weeks that whatever positive changes we see with 00z and 6z runs, the 12z run following them reverts away from that. This has been quite common recently. I wouldn't say this run is a significant change of course at all. Pretty similar to the 06z, actually. 18z and 06z often trend colder as they tend to live on the edge a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Seems like another fairly chilly run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 9'er You can't get much closer to an arctic blast than these past several runs. If we had anymore amplification or if the ridge bridge held longer this would be an AMAZING pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals. A chilly run for sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z GEM Day 4 tracks the initial shortwave right down the BC Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 For some reason the GEM thinks next Sunday will feature an overrunning snow event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Onshore BLAST! 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Onshore BLAST! Eh, I get shadowed pretty good. But nice trends and chilly runs for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks Jan 1971 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: For some reason the GEM thinks next Sunday will feature an overrunning snow event. For some reason the ICON and the EURO (yes, the EURO) agree! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks like a lot of cold rain on the 12z GFS. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like a lot of cold rain on the 12z GFS. Time to hit up friends in Oakridge. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Time to hit up friends in Oakridge. I stayed in a hotel there one night. It was like there was a fully-functioning small town with no one around at about 9PM. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I stayed in a hotel there one night. It was like there was a fully-functioning small town with no one around at about 9PM. I bet the meth lab was open. This run goes bananas with snow here at the end of next week. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z GEM Day 6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I know it's redundant, but with a few tweaks of the pattern here and there we would be looking at a snow-fest, snow-a-palooza, snow paradise! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: That didn’t last long. I can explain myself! I didn’t realize the 6z was about to run as I posted that? So might as well? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Good run, be many chances for snow in the low lands even with onshore flow and those 522 heights. 3 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Well... I think it goes without saying how I feel about this run! 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z GEFS Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well... I think it goes without saying how I feel about this run! Any place above 500ft will do well. Probable sea level snow at night. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z GEFS Day 9 (Past 4 runs) Nah...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 There is a great read on SSW and the tropospheric polar vortex on cliffmass.blogspot.com it explains well what just happened in the upper atmosphere and how the jet reacts to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Not seeing any improvements on ensembles with 850s. I think we just may have to settle on 1000' snow levels perhaps lower at times, and a chance of slushy accumulations to sea level at night with any precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Hmmmm Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hmmmm I don't dislike that. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Not seeing any improvements on ensembles with 850s. I think we just may have to settle on 1000' snow levels perhaps lower at times, and a chance of slushy accumulations to sea level at night with any precip. I think you are spot on. Really no chance of arctic air through the end of the month. It's going to be chilly, but it is going to be onshore flow for the most part. Places below 1000' could score if gradients go flat with moisture. Honestly these trends are a lot more encouraging than previous runs a couple days ago showing the trough offshore pumping in mild SW flow. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Living in the Willamette Valley can feel like being the ancient mariner with albatross on neck, the curse of low elevation and smothering layer of oceanic air 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think you are spot on. Really no chance of arctic air through the end of the month. It's going to be chilly, but it is going to be onshore flow for the most part. Places below 1000' could score if gradients go flat with moisture. Honestly these trends are a lot more encouraging than previous runs a couple days ago showing the trough offshore pumping in mild SW flow. Yeah far more encouraging than a couple of days ago. Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, to Winthrop, Twisp, Omak, Spokane could see modified arctic air at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Living in the Willamette Valley can feel like being the ancient mariner with albatross on neck, the curse of low elevation and smothering layer of oceanic air It is really interesting driving down from 1600' in cold onshore flow situations. The clouds hang very low, and its like once you break through the bottom layer of the clouds around 1000-1200' everything changes and you go from white to wet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 The cold onshore flow setup shown next week through the end of the run is like something straight out of the 2008-2012 period. I doubt it verifies. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks good! 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Any place above 500ft will do well. Probable sea level snow at night. 550’ right here! Woo Hoo!!! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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