Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_38.png Would be at least 1.1+ QPF for the Chicago area with temps well below freezing. Probably looking at 20+ inches of snow through the euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 this looks good people that chicago is going to get a blizzard out of this and we need to monitor this until the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS has the storm as well except it's a tad weaker and a bit to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nearly 2.0" qpf over the next 10 days for ORD...incredible! Snow ratios for the bigger system Feb 4-5th would be around 12:1, 850's near -7C and temps in mid 20's. Ideal conditions for a big snowstorm. Hoping this trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I believe that New Years OV cutter was showing up as well 10 days ahead of time on EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yup, I also like our chances with this one because the LRC had this storm in a very similar track through S IL. Dominick, do you still think ORD is done with 6"+ storms this year??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Time to see if February brings the first 8+" storm to my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yup, I also like our chances with this one because the LRC had this storm in a very similar track through S IL. Dominick, do you still think ORD is done with 6"+ storms this year??? No. I say 2 more 6+ to go! There that cut-off showing up nicely across the Baja area this weekend. Whenever you see something that could mean some big trouble coming next week. Plenty of cold air sticking around to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS still showing the big dog at the HR 204 period. Farther NW than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ya, 12z GFS is showing the monster Feb 4th developing over the 4 corners region and spreading widespread snows in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GFS Snowfall...pretty snowy Plains on east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GGEM: 992 just N. of Detroit at HR 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 CFS for February.......DARN COLD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GGEM also showing the monster Feb 4th developing over the Plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GGEM a little farther SE this run but still showing a big storm potential... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 thanks tom and it sounds by the models that this is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 euro for the big storm HR 180 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_31.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 186 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_32.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 192 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_33.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 198 lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 198 lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_34.pngWHOA.....this is going to be HUGE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 204 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Another .8+ QPF event for Chicago on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 198 lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_34.pngWow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 210. Ran into the block and shifted South. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012712/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_36.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z Euro Precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the blocking woulda been farther north, this one would have amplified a lot more than it did. This could be a huge, huge storm if everything comes together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 A spread the wealth system for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 It will all depend how far south that PV is up near Hudson Bay. Like you said Money, if its farther north it will have more room to amplify and potentially bomb out. Good sign that both GGEM/Euro are showing ample moisture with this system. Still days away to digest many more model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 BTW, the LehS potential with this storm is really nice with a strong NNE wind down the lake and very cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I like where we sit at his moment especially if its able to amplify a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO close call for Chicago with the mixing layer nosing into NW IN. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 It will all depend how far south that PV is up near Hudson Bay. Like you said Money, if its farther north it will have more room to amplify and potentially bomb out. Good sign that both GGEM/Euro are showing ample moisture with this system. Still days away to digest many more model runs. Yup. Not gonna get that far north with that High up in Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Gotta believe in the LRC, it had a track with this system through S IL back in December so I like where we stand now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not trying to wishcast this or anything (given it's 180+ hrs out) but I can see this being a classic NW trender if models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard??? http://kellnerknights.org/files/2013/12/180056_1766915168778_1358568_a.jpg WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol that's fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoToSeattle Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 does anyone know the estimates for how deep and far the snow cover will be at this time? That can be a good indicator for tracking how far north the low will track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 After this weekends potential system, snow cover should reach all the way down towards C IL and the depth around 6" or so near Springfield, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 COME NORTH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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