December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Given the lack of anything else on the horizon it's absolutely worth discussing, even if the end result is inevitably mundane. It's not every week that we have a 970mb cyclone right off the coast.

Yeah without a doubt, there is nothing else worth discussing right now and I doubt will be until January. BUT, sometimes wind storms do lead to a dramatic shift or buckling in the large scale pattern with cold air following in roughly a week. Who knowssss whooooooo knowwwwwwwwws.

[bainbridgekid]

The Euro shows peak gusts of 55-60 mph for Seattle and 60-65 mph for PDX.

 

The Euro's track and WRF's strength is what it would take to get really serious. I'd expect if the low develops stronger than forecast it would also curve further West rather than hugging right up the Coast though which would mitigate this concern some.

 

[Brennan]

It’s 60*F here at 11:30PM... That doesn’t happen very often, in any time of the year. 

[Snow]

The Euro shows peak gusts of 55-60 mph for Seattle and 60-65 mph for PDX.

 

The Euro's track and WRF's strength is what it would take to get really serious. I'd expect if the low develops stronger than forecast it would also curve further West rather than hugging right up the Coast though which would mitigate this concern some.

 

 

Thanks for posting this. Yeah the combination of the two would really crank up the winds. I'm assuming if the Sou'wester forms closer to the coastline some of our concerns will be mitigated that it would curve further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Do you wanna know what I think?.... I believe 12z models tomorrow morning will lock in on a final solution. I would go with a forecast of widespread gusts 50-60mph(Potential for even higher) for the Willamette Valley over a 2-4 hour duration. Overall looking for major run to run differences on the suite of models that time may have passed now and we may only see minor adjustments taking place of the finer/mesoscale details primarily position of gradient couplet and how tight it is. By tomorrow guys, gals(and furry woodland creatures too) we'll be to the point where this will all come down to Satellite analysis, IR/WV loop viewing, 3hr Pressure Falls chart, and some limited Ship/Buoy data(Not much of those left that are operational unfortunately) That's my favorite thing right now. As I said in my earlier analysis we can watch everything in real time now. We don't have to solely rely on models for initialization, track, trajectory or placement with landfall. The only wild cards that remains are how soon inside 130 W does this low undergo its explosive Cyclogenesis stage, how deep does it ultimately bottom out, and finally where does peak maturity stage occur in relation/proximity from Newport to Astoria. Those are the questions to me that need to be answered over the next 24-36 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis
This was about as ideal as you could want. Thursday's low is set to develop deepening to 983mb right near the sweet spot for classic Pacific Northwest windstorms at 40 N, 130 W.

6z GFS
The most glaringly obvious thing on this run is the increasing left exit jet support which is extremely strong now upwards of 140-160kts punching into southwest Oregon all the way up to northern Washington now with no splitting evident. This will keep the low strong, healthy, and maintain very quick forward motion. There is no way this low weakens as modeled if this verifies. No chance. If anything it could stay near the same depth all the way to landfall(Washington Coast or Vancouver Island), maybe even deepen throughout its northward track.

Past history of wind storms tells us this. Also, there is all the support in the world now for this low to be 968-972mb, so I would ignore any models suggesting it would be in the 980's with the stretching/rapid weakening shown. You would see that if you had little jet support, the low would literally stall losing all momentum and fill, but not with 140-160kts. Models may really be missing the boat(or yacht) in handling the depth with this storm.

We're going to see a major, damaging wind storm if this low doesn't wind up further offshore. I am going out on that limb.

[Gradient Keeper]

Check out what the Medford NWS has to say about Thursday's low

CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AND INCREASING CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY RANK IN THE TOP 10 PERCENT OF THE STORMS TO AFFECT OUR REGION. ALL MARITIME AND COASTAL INTERESTS SHOULD TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS NECESSARY TO PRESERVE LIFE AND PROPERTY...AS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO UNSECURED AND EXPOSED EQUIPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE.

[Tyler Mode]

62 at 3 AM on December 10th? Wow

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

SEA NWS:

 

 

ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A LESS SERIOUS
RAIN PRODUCER...BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MANY MODEL RUNS SHOW A 982 MB
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR. HOWEVER OTHER RUNS --
INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT GFS -- KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO WEST OF
PUGET SOUND OR EVEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THAT TRACK WOULD NOT
RESULT IN HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED ON TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT.

[TT-SEA]

This just does not look that threatening...  where are the tight millibars?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_042_precip_p03.gif

[TT-SEA]

TT"nothing to see here now move along"SEA

 

 

Per the latest GFS... there are no tight millibars on Thursday afternoon.      I am trying to find this huge windstorm on the GFS and ECMWF and can't find it.    Seems like sort of an important thing... no?   

 

Here is the brand new NAM for tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_precip_p03.gif

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z NAM trended much weaker than its 00Z run.   Showing a non-event for tomorrow.   But its the NAM!

 

Then again... the 06Z GFS also shows basically a non-event.    But its the GFS!

 

Then again... the 00Z ECMWF showed a pretty standard wind event on Thursday evening.   

[Prairiedog]

I would like to add that since we are in an El Nino winter the waters just off the Pacific coastline are warmer than normal. We need to think of this Sou'wester in terms of an actual Hurricane. Hurricanes need warm waters to rapidly intensify and I believe that is what the models are keying on. The path that this Sou'wester takes is absolutely perfect to produce hurricane force winds/gust in the western lowlands.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/ENSO-states-viz_0.jpg

Waters off the Gulf and Atlantic are in the 70's.  Waters here even in an El Nino are in the 40's and 50's.  I can't imagine those temps would feed a "hurricane" much.  Cold air is what is feeding the cyclogenesis of these storms along with a powerful jet.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  Yes, there is a lot more in the dynamics of the formation of our winter storms but in a nutshell, I don't think the "warm" waters off our coast do much in formation.  Split flow perhaps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW... the 12Z NAM trended much weaker than its 00Z run.   Showing a non-event for tomorrow.   But its the NAM!

 

Then again... the 06Z GFS also shows basically a non-event.    But its the GFS!

 

Then again... the 00Z ECMWF showed a pretty standard wind event on Thursday evening.   

 

Kind of like hoping for a major snow event because a run of the WRF showed it even though we know 850s will be above freezing...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If nothing else, the GFS was way ahead predicting a cyclogenesis event.  When was the last time that happened?

 

Aye, credit where credit is due. Virtual fist bump to the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

If nothing else, the GFS was way ahead predicting a cyclogenesis event.  When was the last time that happened?

 

Lets see what actually happens... even the GFS is pretty tame now.   

[TT-SEA]

It might have something to do with buying a house with large trees nearby.

 

 

Bingo.   Property damage is not fun.

[TT-SEA]

12Z MM5 NAM wind gusts for 4 p.m. tomorrow...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.36.0000.gif

 

 

Pretty standard stuff for a wind event in December.    

 

The 'problem' could be that there is general low pressure all over so a 981mb low does not have the same effect... weaker gradients overall

[luvssnow_spokane]

Am at a toasty 66 degree's here at 7:30 am.

[TT-SEA]

Am at a toasty 66 degree's here at 7:30 am.

Doubt that... you mean 56?

[TT-SEA]

Am at a toasty 66 degree's here at 7:30 am.

Actually see a station near you at 65.8 which is amazing

[Tyler Mode]

Bham 63 again...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

[luvssnow_spokane]

Actually see a station near you at 65.8 which is amazing

Thank you for verifying. I have no reason to exaggerate the stats I absolutely despise warm weather in winter time.

 

I have some strong east winds which I think from the compression caused us to be warmer. This is a common thing that occurs in this location. Sometimes this is what causes us not to get snow when others do.

[MossMan]

It might have something to do with buying a house with large trees nearby.

That is one of the first things buyers should consider before buying, look up and take a look around! Are there any trees that could possibly be large enough and close enough to the house that it could do major damage or possibly injure someone inside. And if you really want the house with towering trees all around it, do something about it after purchase. But I am one of those people that look at all the "what ifs" before doing anything. Think it drives my wife crazy sometimes!

[antipex]

That is one of the first things buyers should consider before buying, look up and take a look around! Are there any trees that could possibly be large enough and close enough to the house that it could do major damage or possibly injure someone inside. And if you really want the house with towering trees all around it, do something about it after purchase. But I am one of those people that look at all the "what ifs" before doing anything. Think it drives my wife crazy sometimes!

 

This. Especially if you're a weather geek, if you buy a house with large trees around it and don't do anything to mitigate the risks from windstorms, that's entirely your fault.

[TT-SEA]

Thank you for verifying. I have no reason to exaggerate the stats I absolutely despise warm weather in winter time.

 

I have some strong east winds which I think from the compression caused us to be warmer. This is a common thing that occurs in this location. Sometimes this is what causes us not to get snow when others do.

 

 

Yeah... just thought it was a typo.   But nope!

[MossMan]

This. Especially if you're a weather geek, if you buy a house with large trees around it and don't do anything to mitigate the risks from windstorms, that's entirely your fault.

Yeah its amazing just how many people turn a blind eye, or don't even think about weather and how it really does effect life in general...until a tree cuts their house in half.  

[Snowman5678]

That is one of the first things buyers should consider before buying, look up and take a look around! Are there any trees that could possibly be large enough and close enough to the house that it could do major damage or possibly injure someone inside. And if you really want the house with towering trees all around it, do something about it after purchase. But I am one of those people that look at all the "what ifs" before doing anything. Think it drives my wife crazy sometimes!

 

Yeah! Moving from the east coast we didn't really know how quickly those evergreens fall. After 2006 we took out the few trees in our yard that survived and now we get our trees wind sailed (I think thats the term, im not 100% sure though) to prevent them from falling. 

[Tyler Mode]

Last night's 0z vs the 12z today.

 

The low actually looks better on today's 12z, but the stronger, more organized low is also further offshore.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah its amazing just how many people turn a blind eye, or don't even think about weather and how it really does effect life in general...until a tree cuts their house in half.  

We moved into our house in January.  This summer we had three trees removed from our backyard that would be within striking distance.  Good decision, as it turned out 2 of them had termites. 

 

Obviously there are situations that you cant control, however, depending on the size of your property.  You cant always go cutting down every tree in the neighborhood.

[ShawniganLake]

One heck of a rainstorm unfolding on central Vancouver Island.  Looks to be unprecedented flooding in a few areas.

 

From the BC river forecast centre:

 

 

River levels on Vancouver Island and the Central Coast have risen substantially overnight and this morning. The Tsolum River near Courtenay (WSC 08HB011) is currently running at 278 m3/s (water level = 4.387 m), which is greater than the 100 year flow and has exceeded the maximum historical recorded flow (258 m3/s). The Oyster River below Woodhus Creek (08HD001) is currently running at 353 m3/s (water level = 2.982 m), which is greater than the 100 year flood and has exceeded the maximum historical recorded flow (260 m3/s). Environment Canada forecasts additional rainfall in the range from 30 mm to 50 mm for the region. Flows and water levels are expected to continue to rise tonight through tomorrow (December 10, 2014) at noon.

[Bham_Guy]

64 at BLI now...crazy

[bainbridgekid]

64 at BLI now...crazy

All time December high right? And before 9 AM!

 

3 straight highs in the 60's is crazy for them this time of year.

[Tyler Mode]

And to think, highs will be in the teens later in the month!

All time December high right? And before 9 AM!

3 straight highs in the 60's is crazy for them this time of year.

[antipex]

64 at BLI now...crazy

Isn't that a new all-time December high?

 

Edit: bainbridgekid beat me to it!

[MossMan]

We moved into our house in January.  This summer we had three trees removed from our backyard that would be within striking distance.  Good decision, as it turned out 2 of them had termites. 

 

Obviously there are situations that you cant control, however, depending on the size of your property.  You cant always go cutting down every tree in the neighborhood.

True! People just need to be smart about it, have the trees checked out to make sure they are healthy, ect. Keep the healthy ones, eliminate the ones that might be a danger. I kind of take things to the extreme, though. Even down to my vehicles. I always make sure they are all in 100% ready for weather...even down to waxing them again if it looks like cold and snow is coming since it is a little added protection against the road chemical & sand that they will be getting blasted with.

 

Anyway, it has been one of those dry, breezy, and warm mornings up here!

[antipex]

True! People just need to be smart about it, have the trees checked out to make sure they are healthy, ect. Keep the healthy ones, eliminate the ones that might be a danger. I kind of take things to the extreme, though. Even down to my vehicles. I always make sure they are all in 100% ready for weather...even down to waxing them again if it looks like cold and snow is coming since it is a little added protection against the road chemical & sand that they will be getting blasted with.

Heh the wax is smart... Reminds me of the time I ended up inadvertently following a deicer truck on the way to work several years ago. That stuff is a sticky mess! It also didn't help at all when the sleet, snow, and freezing rain hit a few hours later.

[Bham_Guy]

All time December high right? And before 9 AM!

 

3 straight highs in the 60's is crazy for them this time of year.

 

SEA is up to 63. I think its December record is 64.

[TT-SEA]

All time December high right? And before 9 AM!

 

3 straight highs in the 60's is crazy for them this time of year.

 

 

Time of day does not really matter in this scenario... record highs can happen in the middle of the night.