December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

I see a lot of belly aching over the 12z for no real reason. Yes, it is not as stellar as the past run but still gets us cold/coolish. Honestly, most of us just want snow and if we can get that who cares if it is cold or epic cold, the end result is white stuff on the ground and there is still hope for that. I honestly was "dreaming of white Christmas" but since there is only a 7% chance of that I was not holding my breath. I am hopeful and do not see this as being that awful, as all the good ingredients are still in play...  It is not like in the past where we had a fricken blocking ridge sitting on top of us for three weeks. NOW that sucked!!!

 

Truthfully, I am not surprised by this run based on the law of averages for weather around here, as it is a "more" believable outcome but not set in stone either. Thankfully we have time for something to happen (great)... I am bummed no white christmas but "meh", I knew it would probably not going to happen anyway.  Keep chins up folks lots can change

 

Now the rain this weekend looks awfully impressive!! WoW!

[Gradient Keeper]

Or it could come in even more insane..there's potential for this to turn into something historic, for someone..

Bring it on.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles 500mb HR 240

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f240.gif

[MikeInEverett]

Not disappointed with the 12z GFS. The 12z has gotten better and better by the day the last few days, maybe it'll get even better tomorrow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not disappointed with the 12z GFS. The 12z has gotten better and better by the day the last few days, maybe it'll get even better tomorrow.

Now that's the spirit!

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z GFS Ensembles 500mb HR 240

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f240.gif

Well, more good than bad there... Some of those are radically different though, clearly struggling with it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, more good than bad there... Some of those are radically different though, clearly struggling with it.

Yep

[Gradient Keeper]

12z  ECMWF isn't looking so hot

 

HR 168 Very poor

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[MikeInEverett]

12z  ECMWF isn't looking so hot

 

HR 168 Very poor

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

Remember what hr 192 showed last night, then it all came right back at hr 216.

[MikeInEverett]

12z  ECMWF isn't looking so hot

 

HR 168 Very poor

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

It still doesn't show it over us at hr 192, but it shows a lot building to our east and to the north.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192 ridge trying to build/amplify

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Gradient Keeper]

We would probably be wise to turn off the computer until 12z Monday, but right lol like that will ever happen

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 216

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[TT-SEA]

Concerning the AR event over the weekend... the ECMWF has consistently showed the worst of it being Saturday for most of WA.

 

The 12Z ECMWF coming out now shows just c-zone north of Seattle on Sunday with the heavy rain mostly down in Oregon.   It does not look like a flooding event up here at all.

[Guest Winterdog]

Looking pretty good at the 850 level.

[WS Snow]

In other words, the torch continues...

 

Crap!

[Gradient Keeper]

Concerning the AR event over the weekend... the ECMWF has consistently showed the worst of it being Saturday for most of WA.

 

The 12Z ECMWF coming out now shows just c-zone north of Seattle on Sunday with the heavy rain mostly down in Oregon.   It does not look like a flooding event up here at all.

Yeah, it sags south over SW Washington/NW Oregon.... WRF is insane with rain

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014121812/images_d3/or_pcp72.84.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking pretty good at the 850 level.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

It's that THAT bad, and close to being very cold, prolonged....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[HighlandExperience]

At least in the short term future things are looking decent for the Washington Cascades. The ski resorts in Oregon will not be in as good of shape though.

 

Every inch of base counts at this point, even if some of it gets washed away.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.72.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

If these are the flip-flop runs, I'll take it... Onto 00z tonight

[Guest Winterdog]

Looks pretty good to me.  A bit of a SE ridge and it looks like we could get a lot colder if things progress the way they are going.

 

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro has too much Aleutian low, no Kona low, everything is pushed a little too far east. Slight retrogression would be great, but at this point any potential Arctic air for the PNW is being delayed.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro has too much Aleutian low, no Kona low, everything is pushed a little too far east. Slight retrogression would be great, but at this point any potential Arctic air for the PNW is being delayed.

Yeah, block doesn't take hold and amplify until HR 180-192.... Still tons of potential

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro has too much Aleutian low, no Kona low, everything is pushed a little too far east. Slight retrogression would be great, but at this point any potential Arctic air for the PNW is being delayed.

Yeah, block doesn't take hold and amplify until HR 180-192.... Still tons of potential

[Deweydog]

So what do we do now???

[antipex]

So what do we do now???

 

Get your boat and sandbags ready.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So what do we do now???

Seek Counseling

[liquidsnow]

So what do we do now???

Invest in a snow-making machine if you want a White Christmas.

[Jesse]

So what do we do now???

Rear our newborn twins.

[Jesse]

Looking like another crazy torch Sunday-Tuesday. A 60+ high and 50+ low at some point is looking good at PDX.

 

At least we have THAT to look forward to!!

[Deweydog]

Rear our newborn twins.

The models are doing all the rearing right now! LOL!

[Snow]

I just looked at the new 12z model runs and everything still looks good. The GFS is going to be flip flopping for the next 2 to 3 days, this is normal. The new 12z EURO still looks very good, both the operational and ensemble mean.

[ShawniganLake]

So what do we do now???

Keep calm and chive on.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The models are doing all the rearing right now! LOL!

My butt hurts...

[Deweydog]

Keep calm and chive on.

Dr. Marvin! Dr. Leo Marvin! Doctor! Leo! Marvin!

[BLI snowman]

So what do we do now???

 

Attend the Christmas morning premiere of that new James Franco movie.

[Gradient Keeper]

Dr. Marvin! Dr. Leo Marvin! Doctor! Leo! Marvin!

What about Dewey, I meant Bob*

[Front Ranger]

Attend the Christmas morning premiere of that new James Franco movie.

I hope North Korea doesn't get a white Christmas.

[Guest Winterdog]

Looks like we have our Kona Low back!