December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

 

Meh .... HR 192  ... Onto 00z ...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122112/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

There does not appear to be any really cold air anywhere in the US.

 

First and in front here: .. as far as the more general picture goes (more main focus, PNW.), … Certainly an "odd duck", type year, e.g. the "warm" / general pattern wise.

 

This with then where looking at the projection depicted here above, your comment, and the peculiarity of things to this point where looking both at and for what people here in the PNW do mainly during the winter, …

 

.. I've got main and more primary cold air .. set to continue to regress north where looked at more generally, more broadly, thru the 3rd of January. — This with broader cold's at the same time from this point more current, forward though until Jan. 1st or so, being set to slow its main movement and pace more eastward, steadily, daily more, .. before beginning to step that pace up again at all. @

 

.. And so with these ideas looked at all together—along with also, at where cold is situated, i.e. both depicted here above, along with more actually at this point, …

 

— And more in particularly, relative to your comment, with cold's general regress at this point, its increasingly better "consolidation", north—thru Jan. 3rd.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur  .. 14122100z nhem 850 - more Static.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur  .. 14122100z nhem 500

 

.. The best view I'd say where considering potential, either whether where looking at stronger cold, and/ or with it, what it might help to generate otherwise, is at that for some amount of general retrograde. — To be more clear here perhaps, more primary cold's drift more westward of course, with the "slowing" of over-all cold east. This with the idea that even with cold's more over-all recession otherwise at the same time, an increasingly more meridional leaning main pattern wise, working to allow main cold more direct south access.

 

(Or, not.)

[jaya]

No way at this time of year... it just does not matter if the water offshore is 47 or 49.    You realize that if the water was way below normal it would still be about the same temperature relatively speaking.   Those red colors do not mean 'warm' water.    Its still frigid water either way.

 

The upper levels are so much more dominant than some small effect like that.

The water temperatures extend offshore. The warm water is not only adding specific humidity but is warming the entire atmosphere locally.

 

Now, did you look at the water temperatures?  55 deg buoy 29 (off the mouth of the Columbia, 54.5 off Grays Harbor.  The water is not in the 40s.  It is very warm.  The atmosphere and ocean are nonlinearly feeding back on one another.  We will need a large scale change over a rather long time period of time (on the scale of months) to change things.  It has started to cool offshore, but a slow process.  Mixing will do the job over a period of time (and has been) but the effect at this time is regional over the E Pacific. 

 

The warm water has also had some effect on the sea level along the west coast. Even without particularly low pressures, our tidal anomalies are pretty large. Here is Astoria http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=orastrand here is Seattle http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=waseat.

 

Warm water = warm average temperatures.  In a La Nina year with lots of upwelling on average, we would see the colder water (and a colder rain instead of a milder rain!)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is just silly outside of maybe a very stable summer-time pattern.

 

There is absolutely no effect this time of year.   How in the hell did Olympia get down close to the single digits a couple weeks back??    They should have been in the 50s according to your theory!

 

Cliff Mass is wrong about this one.  There has not been a lot of news... just one man trying to get people to read his blog with gross over-simplification.

 

So a 30 year vet in meteorology is wrong and your correct? Jees tim.

[chopper 918]

Wrong... if we are tied with the Cowboys for the number one seed then we lose out (both at 12-4) The Cowboys beat us. Remember??

 

If we win out... Dallas wins next week... and Green Bay loses... then Dallas is the number one seed.

 

Ironically... if there is a 3-way tie between Seattle, Green Bay, and Dallas then we take it. This is the most likely scenario but we have to cheer for Green Bay next week.

 

But if we are tied with only Dallas then they get it.

Wrong. If Seattle wins out, they are the number 1 seed period. If Dallas wins out they will be in a three way tie with Seattle due to the fact that GB plays Detroit. GB or Detroit will be 12-4. Seattle owns all tie breakers in a three way tie.

[Snow]

OOOOOkay. Of course, this only works with onshore flow -- something we see a lot of around here. With offshore flow - arctic air - clear skies - etc. it still gets cold. But, take a look at the averages on the light onshore flow days and compare it to similar conditions in other years. Big difference ON AVERAGE.

By the way, Cliff is very good (even though we disagree about a couple things on occasion). He isn't the only voice on this by the way...

I like Cliff Mass. Him and Mark Nelsen are my 2 favorite mets. He always provides great weather analysis and I've learned so much from him.

[TT-SEA]

The water temperatures extend offshore. The warm water is not only adding specific humidity but is warming the entire atmosphere locally.

 

Now, did you look at the water temperatures?  55 deg buoy 29 (off the mouth of the Columbia, 54.5 off Grays Harbor.  The water is not in the 40s.  It is very warm.  The atmosphere and ocean are nonlinearly feeding back on one another.  We will need a large scale change over a rather long time period of time (on the scale of months) to change things.  It has started to cool offshore, but a slow process.  Mixing will do the job over a period of time (and has been) but the effect at this time is regional over the E Pacific. 

 

The warm water has also had some effect on the sea level along the west coast. Even without particularly low pressures, our tidal anomalies are pretty large. Here is Astoria http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=orastrand here is Seattle http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=waseat.

 

Warm water = warm average temperatures.  In a La Nina year with lots of upwelling on average, we would see the colder water (and a colder rain instead of a milder rain!)

 

 

Astoria is at 46.8

 

Neah Bay and Port Townsend also in the 40s.

 

Even though I find it hard to believe... in the summer its almost a given to have warm lows when the water offshore is warmer than normal.   Its pretty close 100% of the time that summer ends up warmer than normal in that situation.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong. If Seattle wins out, they are the number 1 seed period. If Dallas wins out they will be in a three way tie with Seattle due to the fact that GB plays Detroit. GB or Detroit will be 12-4. Seattle owns all tie breakers in a three way tie.

 

 

Ahhh... so the Lions win today was key.   Did not factor that in.   What if GB and Detroit end with a tie game and Seattle and Dallas win out?   Then Dallas would be the number one seed at 12-4.

[TT-SEA]

So a 30 year vet in meteorology is wrong and your correct? Jees tim.

 

 

Ask Dewey.

 

He will rip you a new one on this topic and vehemently disagrees with Cliff Mass.

[Front Ranger]

Ahhh... so the Lions win today was key.   Did not factor that in.   What if GB and Detroit end with a tie game and Seattle and Dallas win out?   Then Dallas would be the number one seed at 12-4.

 

About the same odds for SEA hitting 0 this winter.

[Front Ranger]

Ask Dewey.

 

He will rip you a new one on this topic and vehemently disagrees with Cliff Mass.

 

Strong feelings on water temps!

[jaya]

Astoria is at 46.8

 

Neah Bay and Port Townsend also in the 40s.

 

Even though I find it hard to believe... in the summer its almost a given to have warm lows when the water offshore is warmer than normal.   Its pretty close 100% of the time that summer ends up warmer than normal in that situation.

 

Water temperatures (not air).  Look at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46029and http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46211 and look for WTMP.  Air temperatures are more temporal in nature.  Water temperatures make a huge difference (why we can grow palms here and they can't in Fargo!)

[Front Ranger]

Water temperatures (not air).  Look at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46029and http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46211 and look for WTMP.  Air temperatures are more temporal in nature.  Water temperatures make a huge difference (why we can grow palms here and they can't in Fargo!)

 

Because the models always make the cold air go east.

[Deweydog]

The water temperatures extend offshore. The warm water is not only adding specific humidity but is warming the entire atmosphere locally.

 

Now, did you look at the water temperatures?  55 deg buoy 29 (off the mouth of the Columbia, 54.5 off Grays Harbor.  The water is not in the 40s.  It is very warm.  The atmosphere and ocean are nonlinearly feeding back on one another.  We will need a large scale change over a rather long time period of time (on the scale of months) to change things.  It has started to cool offshore, but a slow process.  Mixing will do the job over a period of time (and has been) but the effect at this time is regional over the E Pacific. 

 

The warm water has also had some effect on the sea level along the west coast. Even without particularly low pressures, our tidal anomalies are pretty large. Here is Astoria http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=orastrand here is Seattle http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=wc&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=waseat.

 

Warm water = warm average temperatures.  In a La Nina year with lots of upwelling on average, we would see the colder water (and a colder rain instead of a milder rain!)

 

I'm sorry, but I think this stuff has really been just an easy scapegoat for what has just been one of those things... a fairly consistent and protracted period of anomalous warmth.  Obviously there are feedback effects to some degree, but blaming a static anomaly in sea surface temperatures for or listing them as a catalyst for the varying systems producing warm temperature anomalies is just silly rabbit stuff.  Case in point, the biggest culprit over the last few weeks for warmth, most pronounced last week leading up to the windstorm down here, was the dry advection of warm air under strong SE'erly flow in the low/mid levels.  How on earth does that get directly tied to the SSTA's?  It's purely circulatory.  This time of year, the only way I can see a direct connection would be during a long fetch westerly/northwesterly flow during a cold advection event.  Maybe Astoria hangs at 39 or 40 rather than 38 or 39 during a cold unstable air pattern with WNW winds blowing 15-25 mph?  I don't know...  What I do know is it seems like it's just flavor of the month kind of stuff.  I can at least kind of see the point in debating it during the warm season, even though I think even then the affects are way overestimated, but this cold season stuff makes absolutely no sense to me.  There's just too much going on above our heads right now from a forcing standpoint.  

[TT-SEA]

Water temperatures (not air).  Look at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46029and http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46211 and look for WTMP.  Air temperatures are more temporal in nature.  Water temperatures make a huge difference (why we can grow palms here and they can't in Fargo!)

 

 

Those were water temps from buoys at those locations today... not air temps.

 

Water temp in Astoria, Neah Bay, and Port Townsend in the 40s.

[TT-SEA]

I'm sorry, but I think this stuff has really been just an easy scapegoat for what has just been one of those things... a fairly consistent and protracted period of anomalous warmth.  Obviously there are feedback effects to some degree, but blaming a static anomaly in sea surface temperatures for or listing them as a catalyst for the varying systems producing warm temperature anomalies is just silly rabbit stuff.  Case in point, the biggest culprit over the last few weeks for warmth, most pronounced last week leading up to the windstorm down here, was the dry advection of warm air under strong SE'erly flow in the low/mid levels.  How on earth does that get directly tied to the SSTA's.  This time of year, the only way I can see a direct connection would be during a long fetch westerly/northwesterly flow during a cold advection event.  Maybe Astoria hangs at 39 or 40 rather than 38 or 39 during a cold unstable air pattern with WNW winds blowing 15-25 mph?  I don't know...  What I do know is it seems like it's just flavor of the month kind of stuff.  I can at least kind of see the point in debating it during the warm season, even though I think even then the affects are way overestimated, but this cold season stuff makes absolutely no sense to me.  There's just too much going on above our heads right now from a forcing standpoint.  

 

Well stated.

[jaya]

Those were water temps from buoys at those locations today... not air temps.

See the links.  Those are current buoy reports!

[Front Ranger]

I'm sorry, but I think this stuff has really been just an easy scapegoat for what has just been one of those things... a fairly consistent and protracted period of anomalous warmth.  Obviously there are feedback effects to some degree, but blaming a static anomaly in sea surface temperatures for or listing them as a catalyst for the varying systems producing warm temperature anomalies is just silly rabbit stuff.  Case in point, the biggest culprit over the last few weeks for warmth, most pronounced last week leading up to the windstorm down here, was the dry advection of warm air under strong SE'erly flow in the low/mid levels.  How on earth does that get directly tied to the SSTA's?  It's purely circulatory.  This time of year, the only way I can see a direct connection would be during a long fetch westerly/northwesterly flow during a cold advection event.  Maybe Astoria hangs at 39 or 40 rather than 38 or 39 during a cold unstable air pattern with WNW winds blowing 15-25 mph?  I don't know...  What I do know is it seems like it's just flavor of the month kind of stuff.  I can at least kind of see the point in debating it during the warm season, even though I think even then the affects are way overestimated, but this cold season stuff makes absolutely no sense to me.  There's just too much going on above our heads right now from a forcing standpoint.  

 

On the other hand, it's kind of crazy how much atmospheric circulations are apparently tied to SSTA in a relatively small area of the tropical Pacific. Just saying.

 

The climate holds many secrets.

[Snow]

[jaya]

I'm sorry, but I think this stuff has really been just an easy scapegoat for what has just been one of those things... a fairly consistent and protracted period of anomalous warmth.  Obviously there are feedback effects to some degree, but blaming a static anomaly in sea surface temperatures for or listing them as a catalyst for the varying systems producing warm temperature anomalies is just silly rabbit stuff.  Case in point, the biggest culprit over the last few weeks for warmth, most pronounced last week leading up to the windstorm down here, was the dry advection of warm air under strong SE'erly flow in the low/mid levels.  How on earth does that get directly tied to the SSTA's?  It's purely circulatory.  This time of year, the only way I can see a direct connection would be during a long fetch westerly/northwesterly flow during a cold advection event.  Maybe Astoria hangs at 39 or 40 rather than 38 or 39 during a cold unstable air pattern with WNW winds blowing 15-25 mph?  I don't know...  What I do know is it seems like it's just flavor of the month kind of stuff.  I can at least kind of see the point in debating it during the warm season, even though I think even then the affects are way overestimated, but this cold season stuff makes absolutely no sense to me.  There's just too much going on above our heads right now from a forcing standpoint.  

Again, are we talking averages. They are all tied together.  Kelvin wave sloshes warm water up the W coast, water in the NE Pacific is warm, upper pattern is affected, feedback, rinse and repeat.  Warm nighttime temperatures on average that occur on the non weather days have really added a lot to the average temperatures along the W coast for the past several months. I'm not referring to the offshore flow record warmth or the AR events (the big anomalies), but the warm anomalies that have dominated the end of this yearr.  No scapegoats here.    The key word is average - how I believe the discussion started.  Guess we'll have to disagree.  

[Front Ranger]

it's legal now in the PNW.

 

That could be the real reason for all the low level warmth. 

[Deweydog]

On the other hand, it's kind of crazy how much atmospheric circulations are apparently tied to SSTA in a relatively small area of the tropical Pacific. Just saying.

 

The climate holds many secrets.

 

That seems pretty apple and orange-ish to me.  We don't see mammoth convective explosions over our coastal waters when they run a little toasty.  If we did, then things around here would be a lot different.  

[chopper 918]

Ahhh... so the Lions win today was key.   Did not factor that in.   What if GB and Detroit end with a tie game and Seattle and Dallas win out?   Then Dallas would be the number one seed at 12-4.

Correct. No ties please.

[TT-SEA]

See the links.  Those are current buoy reports!

 

 

Yes... two of them.   I just listed another 3 that are in the 40s based on current buoy reports!   

 

 

Here is Astoria...

 

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/physocean.html?id=9439040

[Front Ranger]

That seems pretty apple and orange-ish to me.  We don't see mammoth convective explosions over our coastal waters when they run a little toasty.  If we did, then things around here would be a lot different.  

 

It was just an example of how seemingly small things in our climate can have surprisingly large effects. 

 

Personally, I can't vehemently condemn or praise Cliff Mass or other pro mets in his camp, because I honestly don't know.

[Deweydog]

Again, are we talking averages. They are all tied together.  Kelvin wave sloshes warm water up the W coast, water in the NE Pacific is warm, upper pattern is affected, feedback, rinse and repeat.  Warm nighttime temperatures on average that occur on the non weather days have really added a lot to the average temperatures along the W coast for the past several months. I'm not referring to the offshore flow record warmth or the AR events (the big anomalies), but the warm anomalies that have dominated the end of this yearr.  No scapegoats here.    The key word is average - how I believe the discussion started.  Guess we'll have to disagree.  

 

Obviously the tropical Pacific drives the bus a great deal of the time when it comes to our circulatory patterns.  It's no coincidence we've had a very nino-ish broad scale pattern look for some time and the PDO is raging positive.  

[jaya]

That seems pretty apple and orange-ish to me.  We don't see mammoth convective explosions over our coastal waters when they run a little toasty.  If we did, then things around here would be a lot different.  

Actually, we have seen more TSTM activity the tail end of this year than we typically do (especially offshore).  The cold lows combined with the bit warmer SSTs have added just a bit more instability.  More rotating tstm activity, some funnel clouds...  I know of an unpublished local study that correlated severe convection in the NW with these warm sst events.  By the way, NOAA oceanographers see what they call the "warm blob" affecting fish migration this year in the Pac NW.  There have been a couple of newspaper reports on this and scientists like Bond and Mantua have discussed it (Dr. Nick Bond is the WA State Climatologist and an excellent forecaster). 

 

Now, not massive convection like the tropical Pacific - but just a bit more than usual.  Look at climate as an average and short term climate as a change in the averages on a seasonal to annual scale. 

[jaya]

Yes... two of them.   I just listed another 3 that are in the 40s based on current buoy reports!   

 

 

Here is Astoria...

 

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/physocean.html?id=9439040

This is in the Columbia River.  Look at offshore buoys!

[Deweydog]

It was just an example of how seemingly small things in our climate can have surprisingly large effects. 

 

Personally, I can't vehemently condemn or praise Cliff Mass or other pro mets in his camp, because I honestly don't know.

 

Absolutely.  But those effects are generally proportional from a spatial perspective.  For instance, all summer long it was the knee-jerk maneuver to discuss at length the warm coastal SST's while ignoring the circulatory aspects.  Mark Nelsen, all due respect to his abilities, even went as far as to sum up the summer's dominant 500mb pattern completely backward while just throwing out the SSTA's as the reason for our ridiculously warm nights, which mind you were the result of a lack of onshore flow and an abundance of Monsoonal influence; cutting off the Pacific's influence.  

[jaya]

Old article http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2014/09/15/the-gulf-of-alaska-is-unusually-warm-and-weird-fish-are-showing-up. Blob is cooling but still a bit there.

[Front Ranger]

Actually, we have seen more TSTM activity the tail end of this year than we typically do (especially offshore).  The cold lows combined with the bit warmer SSTs have added just a bit more instability.  More rotating tstm activity, some funnel clouds...  I know of an unpublished local study that correlated severe convection in the NW with these warm sst events.  By the way, NOAA oceanographers see what they call the "warm blob" affecting fish migration this year in the Pac NW.  There have been a couple of newspaper reports on this and scientists like Bond and Mantua have discussed it (Dr. Nick Bond is the WA State Climatologist and an excellent forecaster). 

 

Now, not massive convection like the tropical Pacific - but just a bit more than usual.  Look at climate as an average and short term climate as a change in the averages on a seasonal to annual scale. 

 

I remember seeing a study quite awhile ago about how El Nino-fueled warmth creates higher dew points and more convection in CA. Seems like the warmer coastal waters would have a similar, but smaller effect in the PNW.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just looked at 12z GFS Ensembles 500mb heights HR 168-240.. by far the worst yet, just no hope, no nothing. There was not a single cold member period. Not ONE.

 

Were the ECMWF Ensembles as bad as the GFS? Anyone know?

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely.  But those effects are generally proportional from a spatial perspective.  For instance, all summer long it was the knee-jerk maneuver to discuss at length the warm coastal SST's while ignoring the circulatory aspects.  Mark Nelsen, all due respect to his abilities, even went as far as to sum up the summer's dominant 500mb pattern completely backward while just throwing out the SSTA's as the reason for our ridiculously warm nights, which mind you were the result of a lack of onshore flow and an abundance of Monsoonal influence; cutting off the Pacific's influence.  

 

I'm so sad I missed this.

 

But yeah, no doubt the pattern is definitely the larger driver, whether you're talking summer or winter low temps. Nelsen should certainly know better.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

No doubt that Pacific SST have a profound impact on PNW weather.  Warms everything up before it gets here--that's why it's very rare we see cold air come down from the GOA--usually, all we get is cool westerly flow.

 

That's my obvious .02 worth. 

[Deweydog]

Actually, we have seen more TSTM activity the tail end of this year than we typically do (especially offshore).  The cold lows combined with the bit warmer SSTs have added just a bit more instability.  More rotating tstm activity, some funnel clouds...  I know of an unpublished local study that correlated severe convection in the NW with these warm sst events.  By the way, NOAA oceanographers see what they call the "warm blob" affecting fish migration this year in the Pac NW.  There have been a couple of newspaper reports on this and scientists like Bond and Mantua have discussed it (Dr. Nick Bond is the WA State Climatologist and an excellent forecaster). 

 

Now, not massive convection like the tropical Pacific - but just a bit more than usual.  Look at climate as an average and short term climate as a change in the averages on a seasonal to annual scale. 

 

That doesn't make much sense to me.  Those situations, namely the Sunday before Thanksgiving at the coast, were entirely cold core.  The shear was the result of the cold low which had some solid southerly gradients associated with it.  It was really unusual, I was there to see it, but I have a hard time understanding how slightly warmer SST's could have had any direct connection to the dynamics needed for those storms to occur.  

[Deweydog]

No doubt that Pacific SST have a profound impact on PNW weather.  Warms everything up before it gets here--that's why it's very rare we see cold air come down from the GOA--usually, all we get is cool westerly flow.

 

That's my obvious .02 worth. 

 

Ugh.  I am a failure.  

[MossMan]

So a 30 year vet in meteorology is wrong and your correct? Jees tim.

Yeah sorry Tim, your great but I'm taking a long time NWS met over your opinion.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Ugh.  I am a failure.  

Not a failure.  Just a believer of another camp.  Nothing wrong with that--what you're saying is interesting.

[jaya]

That doesn't make much sense to me.  Those situations, namely the Sunday before Thanksgiving at the coast, were entirely cold core.  The shear was the result of the cold low which had some solid southerly gradients associated with it.  It was really unusual, I was there to see it, but I have a hard time understanding how slightly warmer SST's could have had any direct connection to the dynamics needed for those storms to occur.  

Not just that case, but many more this year.  2C warmer water and boundary layer dewpoint can have a significant effect on CAPE/LI.  Shear is always good around here, we tend to lack good CAPE.   It is a non-linear function. Instead of getting 1-2 good convective events a year (with exception to the monsoonal type of events that are not related) - we get 3-4.  So, not huge - but for around here... noticeable. 

[jaya]

Ugh.  I am a failure.  

You are not a failure... just have a different understanding.  I'm attempting to persuade

[Deweydog]

Not just that case, but many more this year.  2C warmer water and boundary layer dewpoint can have a significant effect on CAPE/LI.  Shear is always good around here, we tend to lack good CAPE.   It is a non-linear function. Instead of getting 1-2 good convective events a year (with exception to the monsoonal type of events that are not related) - we get 3-4.  So, not huge - but for around here... noticeable. 

 

I'd have to see a comparison between cold SST and warm SST events of a similar nature, I suppose.  I'd be the first to admit my understanding of convective dynamics is not exactly tip top. One thing is true though, the coast generally does much better than inland areas during the cold season with respect to thunderstorm activity regardless of SST's.