December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I'm working on a post about December 1871.  Very fortunately there are records available from a number of places for that month.  It appears everywhere from NW Oregon to Bellingham had a wickedly cold and very white Christmas that year.  That month has always captivated me so I'm working on putting all of the data into a modern format.

 

I have records for San Juan Island, Seattle, and Eola Oregon.  Besides that I have the monthly total for Portland which was a nice 25 inches.  Unquestionably one of the outstanding winter months on record for the region.  I should have everything ready in a few days.

[wx_statman]

I'm working on a post about December 1871.  Very fortunately there are records available from a number of places for that month.  It appears everywhere from NW Oregon to Bellingham had a wickedly cold and very white Christmas that year.  That month has always captivated me so I'm working on putting all of the data into a modern format.

 

I have records for San Juan Island, Seattle, and Eola Oregon.  Besides that I have the monthly total for Portland which was a nice 25 inches.  Unquestionably one of the outstanding winter months on record for the region.  I should have everything ready in a few days.

 

Killer winter. Huge December, followed by major Arctic blasts in both January and February.

 

When all was said and done, Portland totaled 50.0" of snow with four separate major Arctic airmasses.

[snow_wizard]

Killer winter. Huge December, followed by major Arctic blasts in both January and February.

 

When all was said and done, Portland totaled 50.0" of snow with four separate major Arctic airmasses.

 

It looks to have featured the most epic snowstorm on record for the San Juans.  40 inches (possibly more) for the month of December with a good deal of that between Christmas and New Years.  The entire region was dominated by Arctic air on Christmas Day.  Some of those 19th century white Christmas's were real doosies. 

[bainbridgekid]

It looks to have featured the most epic snowstorm on record for the San Juans.  40 inches (possibly more) for the month of December with a good deal of that between Christmas and New Years.  The entire region was dominated by Arctic air on Christmas Day.  Some of those 19th century white Christmas's were real doosies. 

Didn't they get at least 3-4 feet in December 1996?

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, now that we're into the first week of December it is time to play this game again.

Whammies = Split flow, Cold Rain, or Pineapple Express/AR Events. NO WHAMMIES! NO WHAMMIES!

OH, and check out this tidbit of info! I created this: Tuesday, December 09, 2008, 1:47:31 PM.

WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENED NEXT!

 

[snow_wizard]

Didn't they get at least 3-4 feet in December 1996?

 

I'm not totally sure.  They usually don't do as well as Whatcom County.

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of 19th century White Chistmas's.  This is one of my favorites from Fort Steilcom near Tacoma.  Certainly the coldest Christmas on record for this region.

 

 

 

 

[Snow]

Euro weeklies update:  cold looks probable later in month...~20th...kicking in ~Xmas thru New Years.

 

http://i61.tinypic.com/x1iz55.jpg

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/2ypdp9d.jpg

 

http://i58.tinypic.com/15rdttd.jpg

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/ddpeoi.jpg

 

I like the wording you used Meteorologist westiztehbest! Probable according to Kent's Words of Estimative Probability is 75% give or take about 12%. So chances of this happening are 63% to 87%. I will take that anytime! 

 

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/55143974.jpg

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS actually shows a gradual cooling trend at the 850mb level over the next two weeks.  Week two looks good for the mountains.

[MossMan]

Kind of interesting that the snow levels are quite high, but yet it's only 40 degrees. Also raining heavily at the moment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS starting to move in a more positive direction in the LR.

[westiztehbest]

Theres a glaze of ice on everything this mornimg after almost 12 hours of freezing rain. Glad the powers not out. Cold air has been remarkably stubborn thus far although it is 29F. Radiosonde this morning indicates a 1k ft melting layer above 850 mb.

[stuffradio]

-

Well, here's to hoping that these projections—so plainly depicted—are at least 30% off the mark.

 

— Otherwise, where's the mystery. ?  (Challenge, even.)

 

(Perhaps a few butterflies have been neglected where considering the broader parameterization.)

No, the mystery is in finding out if they verify.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 up at my house. 44 down in Silverton

[luvssnow_spokane]

I like the wording you used Meteorologist westiztehbest! Probable according to Kent's Words of Estimative Probability is 75% give or take about 12%. So chances of this happening are 63% to 87%. I will take that anytime! 

 

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/55143974.jpg

Interesting...   Looks like the bulk of it goes east and central

[ShawniganLake]

It looks to have featured the most epic snowstorm on record for the San Juans.  40 inches (possibly more) for the month of December with a good deal of that between Christmas and New Years.  The entire region was dominated by Arctic air on Christmas Day.  Some of those 19th century white Christmas's were real doosies. 

I would have to think 1996 would have been close to the 40 inch mark for that area, knowing what happened in Victoria, BC. 

 

Interesting that December 1996 barely even cracks the top 10 for snowiest months for Shawnigan Lake (since1911), and you can practically see the San Juans from here. approx. 25 miles.

 

1916-01………68"

1916-02………67"

1950-01………65"

1968-12………56"

2008-12...........54"

1913-01………51"

1969-01………51"

1954-01………48"

1923-02………47"

1996-12………46"

[MossMan]

I would have to think 1996 would have been close to the 40 inch mark for that area, knowing what happened in Victoria, BC. 

 

Interesting that December 1996 barely even cracks the top 10 for snowiest months for Shawnigan Lake (since1911), and you can practically see the San Juans from here. approx. 25 miles.

 

1916-01………68"

1916-02………67"

1950-01………65"

1968-12………56"

2008-12...........54"

1913-01………51"

1969-01………51"

1954-01………48"

1923-02………47"

1996-12………46"

In my area during the Dec 1996 event we had 22" of snow that fell during that single night before the warm up. Had about 6" the day after Christmas so I was up to nearly 30" at one point. I remember that event being somewhat of a surprise. Of course I had no internet to look at, models, or weather forums. I just had the trusty weather radio, local mets, and The Weather Channel. I remember we had a dusting of snow on Christmas Eve, but the forecasts were really for maybe a slushy mix but that was it for after Christmas. It wasn't until Christmas night at my Grandparents for dinner when they had the radio on in the background, they announce a Winter Storm Watch for western Wa for the next day. I didn't believe it, but as soon as I got home I turned on the weather radio and The Weather Channel and got the same message from both at the same time. I did not sleep for the next 3 days! That was the first time I had seen that much snow in my area, it was quite epic!! I got nervous that day before the big snow as temps warmed up to the upper 30's and things started to drip, but by about 3pm the wind picked up and the temp fell like a rock, all the way down to 17 when the snow started that evening!

[IbrChris]

Speaking of 19th century White Chistmas's.  This is one of my favorites from Fort Steilcom near Tacoma.  Certainly the coldest Christmas on record for this region.

Nice. How about Dec 1855 at Ft. Vancouver. Low of -1 and a mean of 28.3. Fort Steilacoom fell to 5 that month with a mean of 34.5.

[IbrChris]

The Army Signal Corps publication "Climate of Oregon and Washington Territory" gives a mean temp of 33.3 for Fort Steilacoom in Dec 1852 which is the value I've used. I'm guessing it's the mean of all three obs each day instead of just the "high" and "low" given in the spreadsheet (highest and lowest obs of the three each day).

[Brennan]

Is the CFS holding strong for the end of the month through January?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is the CFS holding strong for the end of the month through January?

 

Nothing orgasmic on yesterday's.

[Guest Winterdog]

Things are back to normal now. Today's max was 52F after a low of 37F, currently 46F and not raining.

[snow_wizard]

Nice. How about Dec 1855 at Ft. Vancouver. Low of -1 and a mean of 28.3. Fort Steilacoom fell to 5 that month with a mean of 34.5.

 

Very interesting...the records I have are missing 1855 for both locations.  There might be two sets of records.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing orgasmic on yesterday's.

 

The last two days have had decent Arctic outbreaks in either late Dec or early Jan.  Nothing like that one epic run though.  On the other hand some consistency seems to be showing up for that time frame.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro was different.

[snow_wizard]

I would have to think 1996 would have been close to the 40 inch mark for that area, knowing what happened in Victoria, BC. 

 

Interesting that December 1996 barely even cracks the top 10 for snowiest months for Shawnigan Lake (since1911), and you can practically see the San Juans from here. approx. 25 miles.

 

1916-01………68"

1916-02………67"

1950-01………65"

1968-12………56"

2008-12...........54"

1913-01………51"

1969-01………51"

1954-01………48"

1923-02………47"

1996-12………46"

 

Very possible Dec 1996 had about the same amount of snow as the 1852 event, but 1852 had much colder temps and it wasn't a situation where it melted the next day.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I would like to point out as far as cold weather is concerned is that both of our cold waves this season came with little warning in the models.  In both cases the events began as shortwaves being shown about a week out that rapidly became more and more impressive as the time frame narrowed.  The first thing to pick up on the last one was the CPC analogs.  The MJO entering a favorable location was also a kind of indication.

[MossMan]

One thing I would like to point out as far as cold weather is concerned is that both of our cold waves this season came with little warning in the models.  In both cases the events began as shortwaves being shown about a week out that rapidly became more and more impressive as the time frame narrowed.  The first thing to pick up on the last one was the CPC analogs.  The MJO entering a favorable location was also a kind of indication.

The only "warning" was the PNA forecast had negative signals showing up a week or two out...much like it is starting to show for the tail end of December.

[MossMan]

12z Euro was different.

Different like how?

[Deweydog]

Different like how?

 

In reality, the 0z and 12z runs today were pretty darn similar.  

[westiztehbest]

CFS is still looking great for cold after the 20th...extending thru mid January.

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is still looking great for cold after the 20th...extending thru mid January.

 

 

http://i58.tinypic.com/21n49xl.jpg

 

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/25gz0d3.jpg

Golden

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp has warmed to 54 at my place. Down to 43 at Silverton #inversion

[ShawniganLake]

41/35 and drizzly today. 38/31 yesterday. Cold and damp. The last few scraps of snow in the shaded areas are melting.

[ShawniganLake]

Long range gfs sets up blocking..........right overhead.

[Snow]

Interesting...   Looks like the bulk of it goes east and central

 

Yeah but it should be plenty cold enough for snow here in the western lowlands.

[Snow]

Long range gfs sets up blocking..........right overhead.

 

Yeah hopefully the EURO is right in that the upper level high is more west as we near the end of December. Pretty good agreement with the EURO weekly starting at that time period.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120600/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

[Snowman5678]

Pretty windy here, I just had two brown outs. 

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah hopefully the EURO is right in that the upper level high is more west as we near the end of December. Pretty good agreement with the EURO weekly starting at that time period.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120600/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

What are you trying to show here?  They look identical.  No cold!!!!

 

It is colder 300 miles offshore than here.

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty windy here, I just had two brown outs. 

Weird, winds around you have gusted to a whopping 17 MPH.

 

There is nothing moving in that would cause more than light breezy conditions.