December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 03 Dec 2014 - 6:04 PM, said:snow_wizard, on 03 Dec 2014 - 6:04 PM, said:

You were incredibly lucky to stay that cold today.  Most places got well above 40.

I live in a very sheltered area that takes a lot to mix it out.  My weather station sits on a pole in an area of the yard that gets very limited sunshine.  I was gone all day today and was actually surprised that there was so much snow left and that my high temp was so low compared to Arlington. 

Edit: I've checked other stations in the area and none of them are lower than 35 for a high temp so I may have a problem with my maximum readings.  The lows seem to pretty much agree with mine.  Do you think it's possible to have such anomalous temps because of the placement of the station? 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah that is pretty extreme. The climb to my place from Silverton is more gradual. Goes from 250' to 1600' in about 9 miles. 

 

I lived at about 900' on that drive for one winter. Unfortunately, it was 1997-98.

[Front Ranger]

I'm going to disable the 'wink' emoticon for you.

 

I didn't even know you could do that. Can you disable Tim's smiley face?

[TT-SEA]

I didn't even know you could do that. Can you disable Tim's smiley face?

 

 

He was probably just kidding.           

[snow_wizard]

I live in a very sheltered area that takes a lot to mix it out.  My weather station sits on a pole in an area of the yard that gets very limited sunshine.  I was gone all day today and was actually surprised that there was so much snow left and that my high temp was so low compared to Arlington. 

Edit: I've checked other stations in the area and none of them are lower than 35 for a high temp so I may have a problem with my maximum readings.  The lows seem to pretty much agree with mine.  Do you think it's possible to have such anomalous temps because of the placement of the station? 

 

 

I took at look at some of the stations up there and it appears Lake Stevens and Granite Falls were colder than anywhere else.  Your reading is 2 degrees lower than the Granite Falls reading shown on the Mesonet, but that is within the normal spread you would expect to see over a local area.  One easy way to check would be to get decent quality mercury thermometer (not easy these days) and compare it to your weather station at the time of day you normally see your high temps.

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 03 Dec 2014 - 6:41 PM, said:

I took at look at some of the stations up there and it appears Lake Stevens and Granite Falls were colder than anywhere else.  Your reading is 2 degrees lower than the Granite Falls reading shown on the Mesonet, but that is within the normal spread you would expect to see over a local area.  One easy way to check would be to get decent quality mercury thermometer (not easy these days) and compare it to your weather station at the time of day you normally see your high temps.

Thanks Jim.  I have one of those old U shaped max/min mercury thermometers that have the metal dumbells inside the columns that you move with a magnet.  That unit has served me well for years until I got the Davis station I use now.  Anyway that old thermometer agrees with my Davis readings so I guess I'll consider them good.

[TT-SEA]

I took at look at some of the stations up there and it appears Lake Stevens and Granite Falls were colder than anywhere else.  Your reading is 2 degrees lower than the Granite Falls reading shown on the Mesonet, but that is within the normal spread you would expect to see over a local area.  One easy way to check would be to get decent quality mercury thermometer (not easy these days) and compare it to your weather station at the time of day you normally see your high temps.

  

 

Lots of cold air pockets in this type of set-up... along the deeply shaded south side of I-90 east of Issaquah the ground is covered in snow and the trees are still flocked this evening while the sunny north side is completely bare.

 

All that vanishes instantly with a south wind.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I lived at about 900' on that drive for one winter. Unfortunately, it was 1997-98.

 

That was a crappy winter. Even the big January event missed down here. 

 

Seminole Rd?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprised it only got up to 41 up here today.

[MossMan]

I am currently at 29 degrees and it looks like most all of my snow survived another day!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Model Countdown

00z GFS in 30 minutes!

00z WRF in 40 minutes!

00z GEM in 57 minutes!

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 6 minutes!

! = No excitement whatsoever.

[Jesse]

34, DP 23 with a batch of precip heading up this way. It will be interesting to see what falls....

[TT-SEA]

I am currently at 29 degrees and it looks like most all of my snow survived another day!!

 

 

Same here... 43 for a high and you can barely tell that any of it melted.

 

The power of dry air and a low sun angle.   This is the best time of year to have snow on the ground.

[Snowman5678]

Same here... 43 for a high and you can barely tell that any of it melted.

 

The power of dry air and a low sun angle.   This is the best time of year to have snow on the ground.

 

High of 45 with a bit of melting but not too much. Was down to 32 earlier but I am now up to 35. Looks like I am beginning to mix out. 

[Front Ranger]

He was probably just kidding.           

 

But seriously...is anyone else feeling late December-mid January this winter???

[Front Ranger]

That was a crappy winter. Even the big January event missed down here. 

 

Seminole Rd?

 

I don't remember Seminole. We were right off Silver Falls Dr, maybe 4-5 miles from the park?

[MossMan]

Same here... 43 for a high and you can barely tell that any of it melted.

 

The power of dry air and a low sun angle. This is the best time of year to have snow on the ground.

Yeah I drove to Pasco and back today and the temp spiked to 46 degrees just east of North Bend but yet there was still frost in the shade and it didn't look like anything was melting at all!

[snow_wizard]

Thanks Jim.  I have one of those old U shaped max/min mercury thermometers that have the metal dumbells inside the columns that you move with a magnet.  That unit has served me well for years until I got the Davis station I use now.  Anyway that old thermometer agrees with my Davis readings so I guess I'll consider them good.

 

That's enough to convince me.  I still use a Six's thermometer for my "official" record keeping. 

 

I'm amazed your high was just above freezing today.

[snow_wizard]

But seriously...is anyone else feeling late December-mid January this winter???

 

Yup.  I think BLI Snowman has mentioned he thinks that period is likely also...and of course Phil.

[Snow]

D+11 06Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE early this morning. I noticed the 2nd best correlation date was 12/22/1979. We all know then what happened in early January 1980. Since this is centered on 12/14/2014, we are looking at the Dec. 30 to Jan 1 time frame for snow with arctic air coming before that time. There are hints of a SSW event over Siberia which would result in colder air coming starting 2 to 3 weeks from now.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/14js461.jpg

[snow_wizard]

The cold air is really starting erode now.  It's 45 degrees just a couple of miles from here while it's currently 36 IMBY.

[Deweydog]

But seriously...is anyone else feeling late December-mid January this winter???

Nope.

[Deweydog]

Next week could be kinda stormyish.

[Front Ranger]

Nope.

 

If you were, I'd be really worried.

[Deweydog]

If you were, I'd be really worried.

I'm such a dope.

[Brennan]

I was on board that train!

I was also on that train! 

 

Another cold night here in Bellingham. It has been an enjoyable string of cold and clear weather here, even without snow. I’ll be sad to see it go. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

So the consensus on this forum seems to be for a green Christmas/New Year...

 

I personally don't hold much hope for arctic air after mid-January during a moderate El Nino, so that leaves us a pretty slim window in my view.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Model Countdown

00z GFS in 30 minutes!

00z WRF in 40 minutes!

00z GEM in 57 minutes!

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 6 minutes!

! = No excitement whatsoever.

For some reason I feel the use of a wink emoticon would have completed this post.

[TT-SEA]

For some reason I feel the use of a wink emoticon would have completed this post.

 

 

Exactly... its hard to convey tone through typing.   The emoticons add another important dimension.  

[BLI snowman]

So the consensus on this forum seems to be for a green Christmas/New Year...

 

I personally don't hold much hope for arctic air after mid-January during a moderate El Nino, so that leaves us a pretty slim window in my view.

 

Too soon to tell. Also, it's only a weak El Nino thus far. 

[snow_wizard]

So the consensus on this forum seems to be for a green Christmas/New Year...

 

I personally don't hold much hope for arctic air after mid-January during a moderate El Nino, so that leaves us a pretty slim window in my view.

 

Where did you get that idea?

[Abbotsford_wx]

Where did you get that idea?

 

Which one?

[snow_wizard]

Which one?

 

The idea that most people on here don't think we'll get anything late Dec / early Jan.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Too soon to tell. Also, it's only a weak El Nino thus far. 

 

I agree. It's far too soon to write off late December, but that's what some people here are doing.

[snow_wizard]

I agree. It's far too soon to write off late December, but that's what some people here are doing.

 

I'm going for a solid 70% chance of something late Dec  / mid Jan.  There have been a number of things pointing to it.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The idea that most people on here don't think we'll get anything late Dec / early Jan.

 

Phil, Dewey and others... but maybe it's because not many people question Phil's predictions.

[snow_wizard]

At least this GFS runs shows two or three good snow opportunities for the mountains.  The one around day 10 looks pretty substantial.  For the most part the next ten days look like we get pounded with one front after another.

[snow_wizard]

Phil, Dewey and others... but maybe it's because not many people question Phil's predictions.

 

Phil is the one that's saying the hammer is going to drop on us in January.  The only thing he has said is that he thinks our turn won't come until after New Years.

[BLI snowman]

I'm going for a solid 70% chance of something late Dec  / mid Jan.  There have been a number of things pointing to it.

 

It's pretty rare to go all of December without a lowland snow event of some kind. Happened in 2011, but the last time before that was probably 1999.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Phil is the one that's saying the hammer is going to drop on us in January.  The only thing he has said is that he thinks our turn won't come until after New Years.

 

True. He did write off December though, and at last check he seems to be thinking closer to mid-January for the PNW.