Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looking at the jet stream through HR 108, it looks like it is going to want to phase this run...it hasn't been phasing this system over the past 3 runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Definitely forming a cutter this run...will post maps when they are fully loaded... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 1009 in SE IN at HR 120 it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 according to previous gfs runs that the 32 degree line goes south so this might not be an ice storm for no il. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 00Z Euro phases a bit too late for most of us, but it's definitely a step in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 00Z Euro phases a bit too late for most of us, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.Close, but no cigar...certainly trending towards a lower lakes cutter though.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 EURO still not very good. Not sure it will do a three sixty like many are hoping. Maybe for the lakes but not around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 EURO still not very good. Not sure it will do a three sixty like many are hoping. Maybe for the lakes but not around here.You mean 180, not a 360...if you do a 360 you end up in the same place... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 i think we will look at snow and not a mix. Why? It's not like there will be a snowpack to help temps or help it track further to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's all in the fun of tracking winter storms my friend. Go Hawks! Just hope we get a snow storm outta this and not a mix situation.Must have been one heck of a game to be at, I know I was on pins & needles from the 3rd period onward... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL/sat500_18.gifThe energy is now completely onshore, meaning the radiosonde network can now fully absorb the storm, as it appears to have done with vigor on the 0z runs. Whether this north trend continues remains to be seen, but anything from here on out is, in essence, fair game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 You mean 180, not a 360...if you do a 360 you end up in the same place... Yeah I know you know what I meant. Lol I've never been very good at math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Close, but no cigar...certainly trending towards a lower lakes cutter though....wow this looks like one heck of a storm! Glad I stayed up for this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 6z GFS= 6" in NC IL. Back to bed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 06Z PAR GFS further west--- takes low right over Chicago at hour 120--. total snow through 132 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 06Z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. Edit: Ooops...meant to say 0z runsInteresting 0z runs. It looks like the EURO wants to cave into the rest of the modeling but is pretty weak with the precip. Canadian goes bonkers with an ice storm(which by the way rarely happens for the Chi-Town area)and GFS keeps its same track now for the past several runs. I was reading on one of the afd's that a 2nd northern wave coming from Asia will be the one to watch to see if we can get a phase out of this to blowup a decent size storm. I hope I have to eat my words above of a "nuisance snow" and the storm phases to blow up a major storm for all of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here is part of the afd from Michigan I was alluding to: AS FOR OUR SYSTEM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND... OUR SPLITTING POLAR VORTEX PLAYS A ROLE. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES? CAN IT DIG ENOUGH TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM? CURIOUSLY WHAT DRIVES THE PHASING (NOW SEEN ON THE ECMWF) IS A SYSTEM COMING OFF OF NORTHERN ASIA NOW. THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DOES SEND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE THAT AND HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH BUT IT IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWS THAT FROM A SYSTEM NOW COMING OFF SHORE NEAR KAMCHATKA... THAT COMES INTO THE DIGGING TROUGH AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME TO REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST...ALLOWING FOR THE PHASING THIS SYSTEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Quick "off topic" question. When posting, all the editor options are not highlighted so I am unable to use emoticons etc... Anyone happen to know to fix this?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice write-up from that AFD. Things are looking pretty good right now. Hope for a phasing system so most of us can get in on the action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z gfs is solid for a lot of posters here widespread 4-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 I heard this is going to be good for Ohio? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 12Z PGFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Trying not to get sucked into this one...sick of how these systems never phase or phase to late for the past 3 years.that puff map sums it up band north band south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 The thing I like about this system is it should be already fully onshore and sampled. It's not like the last storms where the energy doesn't come onshore 48 hrs before the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Trying not to get sucked into this one...sick of how these systems never phase or phase to late for the past 3 years.that puff map sums it up band north band south.Same here. Hopefully this storm will be different, but IMO it's a 50/50 chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 The thing I like about this system is it should be already fully onshore and sampled. It's not like the last storms where the energy doesn't come onshore 48 hrs before the event. the northern kicker (which is key) isn't even close to fully sampled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is shaping up to be a classic winter storm so no more of this warm air aloft and needing some dynamic cooling garbage. Now it's mostly track-dependent and how early or how late it phases. I understand being wary considering our luck so far, but I definitely think this has less bust potential. Models are showing that nice trowal feature with wrap around moisture as the low moves to the NE and deepens rapidly. The defo band looks pretty widespread so this could be a lot more of a "spread the wealth" type event. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 GGEM deepens the storm 21 mb in 12 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 HR 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Have seen this story before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Have seen this story before. I think I saw it just last week, albeit with a different setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 The models show the northern energy moving onshore on Friday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 GGEM with the big ice storm again http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_095.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 98 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_098.png 100 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_100.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 104 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_104.png 105 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123012_105.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron. It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy. I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong. Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece. 9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 i think that the ggem is wrong after tropical tidbits doesn't show about the ice storm hitting no il. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron. It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy. I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong. Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece. 9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. Not saying it's wrong but the clear trend on the 0z and 12z models is for a stronger northern stream than progged the last few days. Tom, do you have the snow maps for the GEM by any chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not saying it's wrong but the clear trend on the 0z and 12z models is for a stronger northern stream than progged the last few days. Tom, do you have the snow maps for the GEM by any chance?12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 It looks like the 12z GGEM has a much stronger northern stream which pulls the southern low farther north and bombs out north of Lake Huron. It's the southern low that will end up being the stronger of the two pieces of energy. I don't discount the GGEM, but I do think it has the northern piece to strong. Same thing happened with the Christmas Eve system that had a stronger southern piece. 9 out of 10 times when you have a system come up from the south and merge with a northern piece, the southern piece will end up being the stronger of the two. I agree completely. You definitely can't discount it because it's a plausible solution, but it's pretty rare for the northern stream to become dominant over the southern stream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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