Scott26 Posted December 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 The problem is that models have slowed this down so much when the low tries to eject it gets squashed by high pressure. The trends are not good, but some of the Euro ensembles are still on board with a stronger, northward storm so lets hope models change their tune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Had to chuckle at LOT's Izzie. This mornings AFD: "AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LASVEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS ISCURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA..."haha....thats a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 I think we jinx ourselves whenever we start a thread using the word major in the title!I was going to same exact thing. Every time we start a thread 200 + hours out it ends up not coming to fruition. I think we got a little ahead of ourselves on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Come on guys lets not give up yet. Take a look at the 12Z GFS. Baby steps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just give me 2 inches. That's all I want at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GGEM back with an organized cutter...the slower solution, the better result...more time to phase with the northern stream coming down from Canada. Still way to early to throw in the towel with this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GGEM back with an organized cutter...the slower solution, the better result...more time to phase with the northern stream coming down from Canada. Still way to early to throw in the towel with this storm.People always seem to react too quickly when models lose a storm for a day or two. If I remember correctly the Euro and other models suppressed the Groundhog's Day Blizzard in 2011 for a couple of runs as well. In no way am I comparing this storm to that, but the point is it's way too early to give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 I think we are just getting frustrated with the complete lack of snow this season and when anything promising shows up on the horizon it just fades out. Who would of imagined after the November we had that December would put up a goose egg in the snow department. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 People always seem to react too quickly when models lose a storm for a day or two. If I remember correctly the Euro and other models suppressed the Groundhog's Day Blizzard in 2011 for a couple of runs as well. In no way am I comparing this storm to that, but the point is it's way too early to give up. this event, by no means is close to GDB. So let's try not to use the two in the same sentence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 GFS and GGEM back with the northern solution. Cant wait for Euro. Whats Parallel showing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 this event, by no means is close to GDB. So let's try not to use the two in the same sentence.I don't think you understood what I meant. I was just saying that even the biggest storms are sometimes lost in the medium-range just to come back. I specifically said this is nothing like GHD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't think you understood what I meant. I was just saying that even the biggest storms are sometimes lost in the medium-range just to come back. I specifically said this is nothing like GHD... your right I didn't even see your last sentence. My bad! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GEM looks good for Kansas city area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 GFS and GGEM back with the northern solution. Cant wait for Euro. Whats Parallel showing?PGFS came farther north from previous runs...Euro is a no show, just rain down in the deep south...definitely ejects out the slowest and farthest south compared to the other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Always gotta be one model letting us down. Lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 NWS GRB MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIG WX TOAFFECT THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMTHAT CROSSED THE RGN ON XMAS EVE...THE EVENTUAL TRACK WL DEPENDHEAVILY ON INTERACTIONS BTWN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS...SO DESPITEFAIRLY GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MORE NLY TRACK ON TDA/S12Z RUNS...SUBSTANTIAL CHGS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESYSTEM ARE LIKELY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 18z GFS still trying to close in a bigger storm near the Lakes...it's all going to come down to when the northern piece of energy phases with the southern piece. From past experience, I have seen the northern piece come down south out of Canada faster than what models are showing now. I'm expecting a better phase in the central CONUS. I must say, the track of the southern piece going through KY/S IL is EXACTLY where I saw the rotation on radar during the Nov 24th storm. You can go back in that storm thread and see that post because this is the track I am expecting to see in the coming days and have been over that last 35 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 i was looking at that strom on the 23rd-24th of november with storm the one back in november had a lot of warm air to made that rain but with the cold air with this storm this could be a massive area of snow to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. Edit: Ooops...meant to say 0z runs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 As each new run comes in this is getting weaker. Unfortunately it does not look like this is going to amount to much, maybe a nuisance snow at best. It just doesn't look good to me at all. Watch the 12z runs come in with a huge storm now that I posted this. Lol, I love it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122918/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Interesting, 18z PGFS showing a streak of snow from the Plains to the Lower Lakes. I think the model may be sniffing out the faster northern stream. This storm has steadily head back north over the last day or two on the PGFS specifically. -PNA to strong to have this storm be an "Out to Sea"/East Coast storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 BTW, this system is already being sampled as it is heading due south along the west coast as it rides along the developing trough in the Rockies/4 corners where it will begin to cut-off near AZ/Vegas. Should be getting a better handle on this system by tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Interesting, 18z PGFS showing a streak of snow from the Plains to the Lower Lakes. I think the model may be sniffing out the faster northern stream. This storm has steadily head back north over the last day or two on the PGFS specifically. -PNA to strong to have this storm be an "Out to Sea"/East Coast storm...might have to get out the leaf blower for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Parallel GFShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123000/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Parallel GFShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123000/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.pngthis maybe to watch if you can look at the isobars and the way ryan maue has posted on his twitter page that this may be classified as the "b"word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 I love blizzards!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Money is going to love the 00Z GGEM... Nice hit Wisconsin and Iowa but would be mostly a rainstorm for the Chicago peeps. So we went from suppressed garbage on the early morning runs to the now amplified solutions. I can't wait to see what the 00Z Euro is like considering the ensembles were a lot further NW than OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Money is going to love the 00Z GGEM... Nice hit Wisconsin and Iowa but would be mostly a rainstorm for the Chicago peeps. So we went from suppressed garbage on the early morning runs to the now amplified solutions. I can't wait to see what the 00Z Euro is like considering the ensembles were a lot further NW than OP.-PNA all day babayyyy! This has major written all over it. I think we will see the Euro jump on board. Better sampling of this cut-off system from the Balloon Network should start to translate to model consistency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 108 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_108.png 112 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_112.png 114 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_114.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 not a snowstorm for no il but an ice storm instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nasty hit on the GGEM. -- Kudos to Tom on sticking with the cutter, my south call's in danger. Suppose it's a win-win, though: I either get my call right, or get a good winter storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 108 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_108.png 112 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_112.png 114 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014123000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014123000_114.pngYuck, I definitely hope that solution doesn't pan out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 ORD gets 0.4" of freezing rain off the Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nasty hit on the GGEM. -- Kudos to Tom on sticking with the cutter, my south call's in danger. Suppose it's a win-win, though: I either get my call right, or get a good winter storm It's all in the fun of tracking winter storms my friend. Go Hawks! Just hope we get a snow storm outta this and not a mix situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 i think we will look at snow and not a mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 it looks like the 32 degree line is north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 that model might be inaccrate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 00z Euro looking different with northern stream energy this run. On 00z 3rd, it has that piece of energy diving into MT where it was non existent before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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