Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Oh I agree, we still have several inches of snow on the ground in my neighborhood, though it's typical for us to be the last to lose the snow, as I live in a high elevation (relatively speaking), tree lined neighborhood.Surprised to hear you have that much on the ground near MKE...lets see if we all can add to our snow totals and get close to average snowfall for January. Maybe even a bit above average if all works out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nighttime lows are going to be above average highs here for 5 of the 6 next nights. Might get back to normal for january. Who would of thought that was possible after the start of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS latching on to the EURo's ideas for hours 180 to early 200's--- many on here would get decent accumulations if correct. The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS latching on to the EURo's ideas for hours 180 to early 200's--- many on here would get decent accumulations if correct.I like how the cold doesn't penetrate to far south and keeps a relatively good storm track through the Central CONUS. It's interesting to see these systems develop near the Baroclinic zone that separate the arctic air to the north and mild air to the south. GFS longer range has not budged on an active set up over the next 2 weeks and significant supply of cold air. Who knows, maybe February/March will be the best months in terms of cold and sustained cold. Another back loaded Winter in terms of snowfall??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS/GFS Ensembles showing nice blocking setting up as we roll on into February. Would be the perfect time to see this develop as the jet stream reaches its peak intensity and huge contrasts in temps across the country form. Let's see if we can spin up some majors over the next 4 weeks...maybe even have it continue into March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Pattern is garbage, won't break anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS and Euro are still showing a very cold arctic blast by next weekend. The Euro appears to show a couple clipper type lows passing through Iowa on days 8 and 10, but I don't have access to the precip maps that far out. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z Euro precip totals over the next 10 days...some of this is with higher snow ratios from the 2 other Clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Gary Lezak didn't believe the arctic air would come by next weekend, in fact, he thought it would be another 2 weeks. I think this has a lot to do with the blocking that is beginning to show up in the modeling and the low Geomagnetic Index (notice the blue line at the bottom of the chart below)http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png If this blocking can lock in (like the SST analogs suggest), this could certainly turn into a long lasting winter season well into the Spring months. I've been looking at the CFSv2, and for the past 1 week straight it has a cold eastern CONUS indicative of blocking near Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 eventually your cold snowy call has to come to fruition. i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 eventually your cold snowy call has to come to fruition. i would thinkEventually nature has to unload...its not like this has been a torch winter...it has had its warm and cold phases. If you look at past winter seasons that have had similar Nov-Jan period, signals point to a rather interesting Feb/Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just saw the 12z EURO Ensemble Mean and boy does it look brutally, brutally cold for an ensemble run for next weekend. I think the north pole just got shunted south into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just saw the 12z EURO Ensemble Mean and boy does it look brutally, brutally cold for an ensemble run for next weekend. I think the north pole just got shunted south into the US.Both GFS/EURO are unloading the arctic hammer for the first week of February. Def looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think the cold is overdone in my opinion. It will get bitterly cold, sure, but not to the extent of what the 12z Euro is showing. Especially if there's not a good layer of fresh snow on the ground. Also, it's been on the day 8-10 range for several days now; it keeps getting pushed back. I think we have already seen the coldest air we will ever see this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 The discharge of arctic air is on a much more massive scale this time around than earlier this month. Lay down a decent snow pack prior to the cold and it'll do its dirty work. On the coldest day every recorded in Chicago's history back in 1985, ORD only had 6" of snow on the ground and got down to -27F. Obviously this is not in the cards, but the amount of cold establishing itself in Canada is more than it has been so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z GFS is sniffing out a major system Jan 31 - Feb 1st that cuts up the southern Midwest/OV/EC. Depending on how strong the deepening trough sets up late January and when that system out of the 4 corners ejects out of the Rockies, this could be the country's first significant winter storm. BTW, this fits the LRC when it impacted the Plains back on Dec 15th and was a rather energetic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Talk about Snowmagedon for the eastern CONUS...take it FWIW...but the GFS is definitely trending colder/snowier as we head into February. Hopefully next month ends up becoming something special for a lot of us. Certainly looks like the pattern in the upper latitudes becomes blocked up and North America pools up with a significant pool of cold air along with an active pattern on the southern fringe of the cold pool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 As many of you guys know, I created a baseball forum a month ago. Well, we got a lot of interest and people wanted to turn it into a sports forum so we did. I know there's been a lot of super bowl talk here etc Here is the new domain: www.overtimeheroics.com let me know what you guys think. I'm posting a link to here on the site as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z GGEM heading towards the right direction for late next weekend.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wait, what is that donut hole, oh it is Nebraska. Might as well laugh since complaining does no good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wait, what is that donut hole, oh it is Nebraska. Might as well laugh since complaining does no good.It doesn't want to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wait, what is that donut hole, oh it is Nebraska. Might as well laugh since complaining does no good.12z GFS gives us snow http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012412/gfs_asnow_us_39.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Made it to 38℉. I went for a bike ride and for once I didn't feel cold. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Currently sitting around a campfire enjoying a few adult bevarges in the sprinkles with a temp of 39f, as I am tarp camping with my son... In Jan. We have 15f rated gear.. But still. Pics want load.. Too big The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nearly 50 degrees and a light rain falling this evening. What a nice May er I mean January evening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Currently sitting around a campfire enjoying a few adult bevarges in the sprinkles with a temp of 39f, as I am tarp camping with my son... In Jan. We have 15f rated gear.. But still. Pics want load.. Too big O, wow! You're camping.Campfire sounds really good about now. High of 42° here today. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z GGEM is looking mighty interesting for Super Bowl Sunday...come on LRC, give us some love! If there is any storm that can give us a nice snow storm, this could be the one in the central CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z GGEM...too bad its a week away...but man, this would put a smile on a lot of faces! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z GGEM...too bad its a week away...but man, this would put a smile on a lot of faces!holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches.Man, you and me both. If there is any system in the LRC cycle, this is one of them. Back on Dec 15th, this storm was an energetic cut-off system. If you can marry this energy with a powerful jet stream and you got yourself a big winter storm. As for the Euro, its not handling the cut-off energy near Mexico/US Border very well and hangs it back way to long which is the models bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 One hell of a storm the GEM is showing. Would rival the GHD blizzard if it verified. What are the odds though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 One hell of a storm the GEM is showing. Would rival the GHD blizzard if it verified. What are the odds though?Not only would it rival it, but it would come exactly 4 years later and take an almost exact track from back on 2011 this run. Come on Mother Nature, give us something good this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Interesting, 00z Euro is bringing the Clipper for next Thursday farther south and its colder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches.and not even that it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol it has snow for Nebraska. It has to be wrong. it isn't supposed to snow in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO/GGEM with nearly 2-3 feet of snow for NYC/BOS. NAM showing 2-3 inches lol http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2014-2015%20Winter/getimg__1_.png 15-20:1 ratios with temps in the teens/low 20's and 2.5-3.0 QPF on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO/GGEM with nearly 2-3 feet of snow for NYC/BOS. NAM showing 2-3 inches lol http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2014-2015%20Winter/getimg__1_.png 15-20:1 ratios with temps in the teens/low 20's and 2.5-3.0 QPF on the EURO. That would be an Epic Blizzard to hit NYC....I think Wall Street would be shut down for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Meantime, 00z Euro hangs the energy near the Baja of California and never ejects it out. Sits and spins for 4 days straight. Doesn't fit the LRC pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Meantime, 00z Euro hangs the energy near the Baja of California and never ejects it out. Sits and spins for 4 days straight. Doesn't fit the LRC pattern.is it ever gonna snow in Nebraska again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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