January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

In other news... Wind Advisory has been issued for tonight

 

IN ADDITION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO

NORTHERN OR CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND. GFS RUNS OVERNIGHT SHOWED

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW NEAR 45N AND 132W...DEEPENING AND

TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND BY ABOUT 12Z SUN. NAM

AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER

AND A MORE EASTERLY TRACKS. ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG 60 TO 75 KT 925

MB WINDS OVER THE OREGON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS

EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST. THESE STRONG WINDS

ALOFT COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL HELP WINDS

ALONG THE COAST TO RISE LATE THIS EVENING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS

AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE

INTERIOR...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS REACHING

50-55 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z SUN

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COASTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND A WIND

ADVISORIES FOR THE PERIOD FROM 06Z TO 20Z SUN IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

 

I get long range tunnel vision and I often miss this stuff.. lol! Nothing epic here but more than I anticipated.

 

The WRF is pretty much yawning over this scenario.  It will probably get a bit windy though.

[snow_wizard]

Canadian Ensemble isn't good.

 

 

It gets better after that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The WRF is pretty much yawning over this scenario.  It will probably get a bit windy though.

I think Winds in the 25 to 35 range are reasonable although leaning on the lower end. I do not think we will see gusts to 50 or 55 at your or my house but I do see gusts to 30ish range.

 

Again, nothing to exciting but I will enjoy watching it mature on the satellite. I often do not follow the WRF to tightly as it gets this stuff wrong from time to time. That being said, I say you and I are in mid 30 maybe 40's for our highest winds gusts with average wind speeds in the teens to low 20's. Pretty run of the mill stuff. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It gets better after that.

I do not have access to anything beyond 240 hours. What do you use? 

[Phil]

MJO a signal is still coherent, and has now moved into phase-8.

 

RMM plots:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ZzyPV5/640.jpg

 

Notice the gradual eastward propagation/retraction of the mean Walker Cell integral since early December..reflected in wind tendencies. The "great wall of QBO/HC-driven wave refraction" is beginning to break down:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/kFd6wV/800.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Wow the 48/35 average at SLE this month is only 1.1 degrees above average. Shows you how awful the 1981-2010 norms were. If we ever have a classic cold January it will have an off the charts negative departure from the 30 year norm....

 

Make no mistake, this month has been a torch. Upper levels matter the most, but even in the lowlands it'll end up with a large number of 50+ days and no significant cold.

[TT-SEA]

It gets better after that.

 

 

That is already 240 hours out.   

[richard mann]

MJO a signal is still coherent, and has now moved into phase-8.

 

RMM plots:

 

 

Notice the gradual eastward propagation/retraction of the mean Walker Cell integral since early December..reflected in wind tendencies. The "great wall of QBO/HC-driven wave refraction" is beginning to break down:

 

... All equating to the idea that ...

[Bryant]

MJO a signal is still coherent, and has now moved into phase-8.

 

RMM plots:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ZzyPV5/640.jpg

 

Notice the gradual eastward propagation/retraction of the mean Walker Cell integral since early December..reflected in wind tendencies. The "great wall of QBO/HC-driven wave refraction" is beginning to break down:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/kFd6wV/800.jpg

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at the lower level winds doesn't prove much in this situation. It's the upper level convergence which suppresses the MJO and breaks down it's structure.

[richard mann]

More toward what end .. or potential future case "situation" are we talking about here more specifically if I may "TheNewBigMack". ?

 

— What might these ideas, perhaps lead to. ? .. Where, and Why. ?

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is making a good attempt at a retrogression in the period that the ECMWF shows it happening.  There is some hope of a good outcome, but it's very iffy at this point.

[Phil]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at the lower level winds doesn't prove much in this situation. It's the upper level convergence which suppresses the MJO and breaks down it's structure.

True, but the +Walker/+Ferrel/^Hadley that's responsible for the upper level dateline convergence is/was also responsible for keeping the WWBs at bay. The current MJO wave is currently trying to break this barrier, forcing a curvature in the critical field lines that demark mass transport thresholds..the forecasted WWBs are a result this perturbation.

[snow_wizard]

MJO a signal is still coherent, and has now moved into phase-8.

 

RMM plots:

 

 

Notice the gradual eastward propagation/retraction of the mean Walker Cell integral since early December..reflected in wind tendencies. The "great wall of QBO/HC-driven wave refraction" is beginning to break down:

 

 

No doubt this should shake up the mid latitude patterns.  The ECMWF likes the idea of a wave in region 4 or 5 again in early Feb.

[Bryant]

True, but the +Walker/+Ferrel/^Hadley that's responsible for the upper level dateline convergence is/was also responsible for keeping the WWBs at bay. The current MJO wave is currently trying to break this barrier, forcing a curvature in the critical field lines that demark mass transport thresholds..the forecasted WWBs are a result this perturbation.

That's true as well. We'll have to see if convergence once again strengthens once this current wave dies. It's progressed a bit further east than previous waves, but looks to die off quick and reemerge over the IO shortly.

[Phil]

That's true as well. We'll have to see if convergence once again strengthens once this current wave dies. It's progressed a bit further east than previous waves, but looks to die off quick and reemerge over the IO shortly.

I agree with you on the eventual IO re-emergence (should be expected given the lack of longitudinal U-W response), but I suspect the damage will have been done by then (critical field lines retract w/ HCs, shallow Walker Cell). Overall, looking a bit more Nino-ish in the far-extended range..kind of like a February 2010/2014 hybrid.

 

That wall near the dateline will eventually come crashing down, imo..

[TT-SEA]

Update yesterday... ECMWF weeklies interpretation through the middle of February.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01161421_jan15a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01161421_jan15b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01161422_jan15c.png

[Phil]

No doubt this should shake up the mid latitude patterns. The ECMWF likes the idea of a wave in region 4 or 5 again in early Feb.

At this point, you want the MJO in regions 1-3..the correlations/responses are different from year to year..this year they're really backwards with the +ENSO/+Hadley/-QBO..that's a relatively rare combo..

[Phil]

Update yesterday... ECMWF weeklies interpretation through the middle of February.

 

That model loves to stagnate the tropical forcings in the long range..I suspect it's too warm in the East after the 1st week of February..

[Jesse]

Very warm air on the way. SLE up to 58. Could get the frogs croaking earlier this spring.

 

Strange to see such a condensed "winter" season. Things were very summer like, with blooming flowers, green trees etc through the end of October this year. Now there are already trees blossoming in spots, bulbs pushing up just 2 1/2 months later.

 

Probably the shortest dormant season I have ever witnessed here.

[Jesse]

We are gradually becoming a Mediterranean climate. Should happen in a big way over the next 20-30 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are gradually becoming a Mediterranean climate. Should happen in a big way over the next 20-30 years.

 

Weenie freak out alert.

[Jesse]

Weenie freak out alert.

More of a fairly sober observation, really.

 

We will still see wintery events here and there, but the underlying long term warming trend will continue as it has the last century or more. No real reason to think otherwise.

 

We are so ridiculously removed from the climate of 30 years ago, Extrapolate that out another 30 years and Sacramento jr really isn't much of a stretch.

[Bryant]

I agree with you on the eventual IO re-emergence (should be expected given the lack of longitudinal U-W response), but I suspect the damage will have been done by then (critical field lines retract w/ HCs, shallow Walker Cell). Overall, looking a bit more Nino-ish in the far-extended range..kind of like a February 2010/2014 hybrid.

 

That wall near the dateline will eventually come crashing down, imo..

The early Feb timeframe is most likely our last opportunity, so not really worried if the MJO is able to penetrate further into the pacific this next go around. Gives us a stormy start to spring with an Aleutian low type pattern potentially.

[Jesse]

The early Feb timeframe is most likely our last opportunity, so not really worried if the MJO is able to penetrate further into the pacific this next go around. Gives us a stormy start to spring with an Aleutian low type pattern potentially.

I think an Aleutian low is the only pattern we've seen the last year or more.

[Bryant]

At this point, you want the MJO in regions 1-3..the correlations/responses are different from year to year..this year they're really backwards with the +ENSO/+Hadley/-QBO..that's a relatively rare combo..

While I agree that favored MJO positions shift year to year, even month to month, the MC region (4-5) really has been our only opportunity this season. Regions 1-3 have reset the overall pattern which sets the stage for Aleutian ridging and initiates the increased model watching.

[HighlandExperience]

More of a fairly sober observation, really.

 

We will still see wintery events here and there, but the underlying long term warming trend will continue as it has the last century or more. No real reason to think otherwise.

 

We are so ridiculously removed from the climate of 30 years ago, Extrapolate that out another 30 years and Sacramento jr really isn't much of a stretch.

 

I expect WeatherPhil to have the climate of Ashville in about 30 years. 

[Jesse]

I expect WeatherPhil to have the climate of Ashville in about 30 years.

I think he is thinking something more along the lines of Barrow.

[BLI snowman]

We are gradually becoming a Mediterranean climate. Should happen in a big way over the next 20-30 years.

 

I picture you posting this in a dark corner of your house, wearing a hoodie over your head and sobbing into a wall while Elliott Smith plays in the background.

[Jesse]

I picture you posting this in a dark corner of your house, wearing a hoodie over your head and sobbing into a wall while Elliott Smith plays in the background.

Says the original oncoming Mediterranean climate bemoaner.

 

I'm actually chilling in the Washington Square Mall while my fiancé is bra shopping. True story.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Says the original oncoming Mediterranean climate bemoaner.

 

I'm actually chilling in the Washington Square Mall while my fiancé is bra shopping. True story.

 

I hope she finds the support she needs. 

[Deweydog]

Tough times...

[Jesse]

Tough times...

A little realism never hurt anyone.

[BLI snowman]

Says the original oncoming Mediterranean climate bemoaner.

 

I'm actually chilling in the Washington Square Mall while my fiancé is bra shopping. True story.

 

Depressing.

[Jesse]

Depressing.

Yup. I envy your lifetime of solitude.

[Deweydog]

A little realism never hurt anyone.

The amount we're changing to a Mediterranean is directly proportional to the amount someone allows or has allowed themselves to believe our climate is less Mediterranean than it is.

[BLI snowman]

Yup. I envy your lifetime of solitude.

 

I'm not the one currently fretting about the 58 degree temps creeping up I-5. 

 

I hope you have something fun planned for later!

[Jesse]

The amount we're changing to a Mediterranean is directly proportional to the amount someone allows or has allowed themselves to believe our climate is less Mediterranean than it is.

Good point. We have always had some characteristics. Places like Redding, Rome and Athens are a lot closer, though.

 

Every year, with the background warming trend you yourself acknowledge, we inch just a little closer!

[Jesse]

I'm not the one currently fretting about the 58 degree temps creeping up I-5.

 

I hope you have something fun planned for later!

Weather is weather. Mall is a good place to post!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weather is weather. Mall is a good place to post!

 

I prefer to post while driving.

[BLI snowman]

Weather is weather. Mall is a good place to post!

 

You should go to the Cheesecake Factory if you're at Washington Square.