January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Auckland and Melbourne have palm trees. Brussels and Dublin are far more oceanic climate-wise than Portland.

 

Compared to most other mid-latitude climates we don't really have "winter." You know, the snowy, cold time of the year with a dormant growing period that lasts significantly longer than ours. We don't really have that, and I'd argue that the cities you listed don't either.

 

Yeah, I was just pointing out that for a mild maritime climate, western OR sees pretty sizable seasonal temp differences.

 

Obviously, many other mid-latitude climates are colder/snowier in the winter.

[wx_statman]

Normally we should have fared much better with such warmth up there. I feel like this ended up being a bad winter from bad luck more than anything like ENSO which was weak. Next winter could easily be the bad one from a significant Nino. We just can't win.

Actually some of our biggest niño torches also roasted Alaska. Think 2002-03 or 1925-26.

[snow_wizard]

Actually some of our biggest niño torches also roasted Alaska. Think 2002-03 or 1925-26.

This Nino was so weak compared to those. This winter just doesn't make a lot of sense for such a weak Nino. Up until now we haven't had the enhanced convection over the ENSO regions that normally forces the shitty patterns that El Nino is famous for.

[wx_statman]

Portland has a better climate for snow than Dublin. That place is terrible if you ever want snow.

 

The west coast of Ireland is even worse. I remember reading during the big December 2010 freeze that some places were seeing their first snow since 1991.

[wx_statman]

This Nino was so weak compared to those. This winter just doesn't make a lot of sense for such a weak Nino. Up until now we haven't had the enhanced convection over the ENSO regions that normally forces the shitty patterns that El Nino is famous for.

You're right about that. I was thinking about the stronger El Niño events of the past. It's still a Niño though so there's obviously some similarity.

[Front Ranger]

You're right about that. I was thinking about the stronger El Niño events of the past. It's still a Niño though so there's obviously some similarity.

 

There have been a few other non-strong Nino winters where Alaska torched and the PNW winter also sucked. 1960-61, 1943-44, 1976-77, 1993-94. 1980-81 had an incredible torchy Jan and March, with Fairbanks recording their warmest on record for both months.

 

Then you have 1968-69, which was very cold in AK. 1955-56 was quite cold as well.

[antipex]

Yeah, I was just pointing out that for a mild maritime climate, western OR sees pretty sizable seasonal temp differences.

 

Obviously, many other mid-latitude climates are colder/snowier in the winter.

 

Yeah that makes sense, but western Oregon isn't really in a full-on maritime or oceanic climate. All of the cities you mentioned have significant rainfall throughout the summer and lower average summer high temperatures. I suppose it's kind of like comparing apples to pears. 

[richard mann]

Sure. Here's the post you're obviously alluding to:  Come on. .............

 

.. What's brown, floats, ... and has feathers. ?

[richard mann]

 

What should I replace it with? Need something representative, but low in "irritability".

 

"thing-gy" (?)

[richard mann]

 

Where have I bragged about my winter? 

 

.. You know who he's talking about, with his any way he can get it in, WGF reports .. from the wider radius around the Northern Appalachians. 

[Front Ranger]

.. You know who he's talking about, with his any way he can get it in, WGF reports .. from the wider radius around the Northern Appalachians. 

 

Yeah...I just don't like getting lumped in with him simply because I don't live in the PNW.

 

Especially by someone who doesn't even live in the same country as us!

[richard mann]

The basic reason for my post. 

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah...I just don't like getting lumped in with him simply because I don't live in the PNW.

 

Especially by someone who doesn't even live in the same country as us!

You at least live in the Western Half of the US.

[Phil]

This Nino was so weak compared to those. This winter just doesn't make a lot of sense for such a weak Nino. Up until now we haven't had the enhanced convection over the ENSO regions that normally forces the shitty patterns that El Nino is famous for.

High wavenumber = PNW torch. Almost always.

[stuffradio]

Yeah...I just don't like getting lumped in with him simply because I don't live in the PNW.

 

Especially by someone who doesn't even live in the same country as us!

We're all Canucks.

[Phil]

.. What's brown, floats, ... and has feathers. ?

You?

[Phil]

High wavenumber = PNW torch. Almost always.

Relatively stagnant tropical forcing doesn't help either.

[stuffradio]

Whenever Jesse likes your post, you know you're doing something correctly.

[snow_wizard]

High wavenumber = PNW torch. Almost always.

It just seems like there is always something to screw us over....especially in the month of January.

[GHweatherChris]

Catching up, for the sake of the Pacific Northwestern Weather Observation thread, try to add an observation or two. And Phil, maybe for the new guys here, maybe explain your connection to the region.

He doesn't have one.

 

I don't think we really need to bring up his description of where he supposedly lived here again, most of us are aware of that ridiculous story.

[stuffradio]

It just seems like there is always something to screw us over....especially in the month of January.

I remember the cold chilly days of January during Obama's inauguration. That month was (in my memory) mostly chilli and Sunny all month.

[Phil]

It just seems like there is always something to screw us over....especially in the month of January.

Wavelengths are short enough right now that you'd probably want a very west-based Aleutian low, at this point in time. An Aleutian ridge will probably only lead to a GOA trough.

 

This is hilarious, mostly because all summer long we were in a 3-wave regimen (sorry, wonderdog), which, if it had occurred in winter, would have led to incredible results.

 

There's a reason the PNW almost always sucks at winter during +ENSO/-QBO/+Solar winters..

[GHweatherChris]

I remember the cold chilly days of January during Obama's inauguration. That month was (in my memory) mostly chilli and Sunny all month.

I like Chili, especially when it is spicy.

[snow_wizard]

Talking about the current pattern is about as fun as having your finger nails ripped off. No doubt this climate is capable of producing some agonizing periods for cold weather enthusiasts.

[stuffradio]

I like Chili, especially when it is spicy.

I grew my own Chilli peppers this summer. I didn't get too many, but that's to be expected.

[snow_wizard]

Wavelengths are short enough right now that you'd probably want a very west-based Aleutian low, at this point in time. An Aleutian ridge will probably only lead to a GOA trough.

 

This is hilarious, mostly because all summer long we were in a 3-wave regimen (sorry, wonderdog), which, if it had occurred in winter, would have led to incredible results.

 

There's a reason the PNW almost always sucks at winter during +ENSO/-QBO/+Solar winters..

Yeah...I'm just tired of waiting for our turn.

[wx_statman]

There have been a few other non-strong Nino winters where Alaska torched and the PNW winter also sucked. 1960-61, 1943-44, 1976-77, 1993-94. 1980-81 had an incredible torchy Jan and March, with Fairbanks recording their warmest on record for both months.

 

Then you have 1968-69, which was very cold in AK. 1955-56 was quite cold as well.

It's always interesting when AK does manage extreme cold while the PNW torches the entire winter. Classics like 1905-06 and 1933-34 come to mind, and more recently 1999-00.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile Missoula came up with a 29-13 day today in spite of the torchy upper level pattern. I was shocked to see there are jobs comparable to mine in that area that actually have higher pay than what I'm getting here. There may be hope of getting out of here yet.

[BLI snowman]

Still looking forward to a potential blowtorch on Sunday/Monday. May go on my first spring hike up into the balmy mountains!

 

Iffy on whether we clear out down here, I'd imagine there'll be some murky mixing,

[GHweatherChris]

You don't know what the f**k you're talking about. Really, you don't.

 

Given that, it's probably best not to start something no one wants to read.

You are probably right, however I am not the only one that remembers your introduction to this forum.

[BLI snowman]

It's always interesting when AK does manage extreme cold while the PNW torches the entire winter. Classics like 1905-06 and 1933-34 come to mind, and more recently 1999-00.

 

Zonal flow with raging +EPO is great for Alaska. December 1933, January 1953, and January 2006 are good examples of that.

[Phil]

Yeah...I'm just tired of waiting for our turn.

It's harder for the PNW to score during and/or just after solar maximums. Historically speaking, your worst winters tend to occur during or just after solar max due to the poleward migration of the HCs/-EPF that often results.

[stuffradio]

I have a feeling the next time (if) we get a classic winter, we'll all die because we won't know how to survive. We barely survived 2008, right?

[Phil]

+ENSO winters during solar minimum have higher potential. Recent examples include 2009-10 and 2006-07.

[stuffradio]

See, I don't know what he's saying, but I'm sure it was, "This is incredible! There is so much snow here!"

[Poulsbo Snowman]

My son got a snow day today at Fort Bliss (El Paso).  He called me and told me he had 5 inches out on the range and it was still coming down.

[snow_wizard]

It's harder for the PNW to score during and/or just after solar maximums. Historically speaking, your worst winters tend to occur during or just after solar max due to the poleward migration of the HCs/-EPF that often results.

That would certainly indicate a Maunder type solar minimum would be good for us then since the solar maxes were essentially non existent for several cycles.

[richard mann]

High wavenumber = PNW torch. Almost always.

General correlation then. ?

 

And if I may, this thinking comes from .. where, who. ?

[bainbridgekid]

My son got a snow day today at Fort Bliss (El Paso).  He called me and told me he had 5 inches out on the range and it was still coming down.

850mb temps are -4 at the Texas/Mexico border and +6 in North Dakota right now. Weird pattern.

 

[GHweatherChris]

850mb temps are -4 at the Texas/Mexico border and +6 in North Dakota right now. Weird pattern.

 

cold mexico, warm north dakota.gif

Stupid solar.