January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The 06z GFS tries to return us to a more rational wavenumber regimen..let's see if the 12z can do the same.

[luvssnow_spokane]

For a week now, I've checked the models looking for cracks in the ridge. One of these years this ridge will set up at 145 degrees west.

Amen to that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It won't be long until Mark Nelsen sticks a fork in winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS continuing to show a February TORCH. Looking at their ENSO forecast it is still showing a Nino developing, but not as strong as before. I think the CFS momentum for  Nino may be fading. In fact a few of their newer ensemble members want to develop a Nina. 

[Phil]

12z GFS is godawful in the long range..terrible. Poor wave synchronization keeps wavenumber high & torches the west..PV goes on 'roids.

 

If true, then it's winter-cancel time west of the Rockies.

[bainbridgekid]

It won't be long until Mark Nelsen sticks a fork in winter. 

He did post this on January 7th so it's definitely on his mind.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He did post this on January 7th so it's definitely on his mind.

 

 

My favorite was when he stuck a fork in winter and then we had our biggest March snow storm in about 50 years. 

[Guest Winterdog]

12z GFS is godawful in the long range..terrible. Poor wave synchronization keeps wavenumber high & torches the west..PV goes on 'roids.

 

If true, then it's winter-cancel time west of the Rockies.

Oh crap, and I was so hoping for that ice box just around the corner.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day here... no shortage of those this winter.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/uuddqdrzc/Untitledb10.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

My favorite was when he stuck a fork in winter and then we had our biggest March snow storm in about 50 years. 

It was 48 that day in Bellingham!

[Front Ranger]

Video of that weak tornado/waterspout in Gig Harbor on Sunday.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was 48 that day in Bellingham!

 

I had a storm total of 20" at my place. My brother in Eugene had 8.5" and the Salem area had 3-5" at valley floor level with up to a foot in the hills. 

 

It was a fascinating setup. With the heavy, steady precip causing the layer to go isothermal. Most of the snow in the South Valley fell in the morning and further north in the Salem area the snow began to accumulate about mid-afternoon as the axis of heavy precip pivoted. 

 

At my place snow had begun falling the evening before and there was nearly a foot of snow on the ground when I left for work, in mid afternoon though when the heavy precip pivoted the precip lightened considerably at my location and the snow actually turned to rain for about 4-5 hours! Salem and Silverton were receiving accumulating snow at the valley floor level while at 1600' I had rain, due to precip rates. Then as the system finally started pulling through the heavy precip shifted back over my location and we received an intense 6 hour burst of snow where another 8" fell. 

[Deweydog]

I would say the current pattern we are in is like a nightmare, but at least you wake up from a nightmare and it's all over. This won't be over for quite some time yet.

 

I am terribly frustrated the decisions I made in my life have served to make me stuck here for the time being. If I had known we would be this far into the new century with no improvement from where we were 20 years ago, I certainly would have left. I kept believing things would get back to the way they used to be, but obviously that hasn't happened.

Jim, at some point one would think you'd realize two things:

 

1. The manner in which this winter has played out was fairly predictable. Stinkers happen and this one had the feel of a stinker going in. I know there was a lot of buzz about January but that would have really been a case of making something out of nothing.

 

2. Cancer would MAYBE be worse and you should be thankful for the fact you get to live through this nightmare.

[bainbridgekid]

I had a storm total of 20" at my place. My brother in Eugene had 8.5" and the Salem area had 3-5" at valley floor level with up to a foot in the hills. 

 

It was a fascinating setup. With the heavy, steady precip causing the layer to go isothermal. Most of the snow in the South Valley fell in the morning and further north in the Salem area the snow began to accumulate about mid-afternoon as the axis of heavy precip pivoted. 

 

At my place snow had begun falling the evening before and there was nearly a foot of snow on the ground when I left for work, in mid afternoon though when the heavy precip pivoted the precip lightened considerably at my location and the snow actually turned to rain for about 4-5 hours! Salem and Silverton were receiving accumulating snow at the valley floor level while at 1600' I had rain, due to precip rates. Then as the system finally started pulling through the heavy precip shifted back over my location and we received an intense 6 hour burst of snow where another 8" fell. 

That is a really fascinating storm.

 

If I remember correctly, forecasts did expect the snow level to reach the valley floor, but accumulations were significantly more than predicted, right?

[bainbridgekid]

Gorgeous day here... no short of those this winter.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/uuddqdrzc/Untitledb10.jpg

Beautifully bright sunshine here too.

 

It seriously feels like there have been more sunny days than rainy ones this Winter.

 

http://www.washington.edu/cambots/camera1_l.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is a really fascinating storm.

 

If I remember correctly, forecasts did expect the snow level to reach the valley floor, but accumulations were significantly more than predicted, right?

 

Yes. Models did show accumulating snow on the valley floor. In fact models were quite bullish with their predicted snowfall totals if I remember correctly. The snowfall models actually nailed the storm total amount for my location.

 

Two factors led forecasters to under play the model forecasts. One was climo, it just seemed unlikely THAT MUCH snow would fall in late March. Secondly a week previous the models had been fairly bullish on valley snowfall totals, but most locations only saw T-2" amounts as the heavy precip band set up over the coast strip leading to one of the largest March coastal snow events in history. So there was uncertainty.

 

In many ways the March 13th storm was just as anomalous as the one a week later, it just effected a different area. The Central coast was slammed with that storm. I went to Lincoln City the next afternoon and there was several inches of snow in town. I then drove south to Newport and there was at least 6" on the ground along 101 with sunny skies and a cool breeze blowing. It was beautiful!

 

The February 28/March 1st storm also dropped about 1-3" of snow in the Eugene and Salem areas on the morning of March 1, 2012, I had 16" snow fall total with that storm.

[Jesse]

He did post this on January 7th so it's definitely on his mind.

 

It's so sweet that Mark misses me.

 

I like the oven personally. Mix it up a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's so sweet that Mark misses me.

 

He probably wishes you and Rob would post more....

[Jesse]

He probably wishes you and Rob would post more....

One of these things is not like the other.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of these things is not like the other.

 

[Front Ranger]

Yes. Models did show accumulating snow on the valley floor. In fact models were quite bullish with their predicted snowfall totals if I remember correctly. The snowfall models actually nailed the storm total amount for my location.

 

Two factors led forecasters to under play the model forecasts. One was climo, it just seemed unlikely THAT MUCH snow would fall in late March. Secondly a week previous the models had been fairly bullish on valley snowfall totals, but most locations only saw T-2" amounts as the heavy precip band set up over the coast strip leading to one of the largest March coastal snow events in history. So there was uncertainty.

 

In many ways the March 13th storm was just as anomalous as the one a week later, it just effected a different area. The Central coast was slammed with that storm. I went to Lincoln City the next afternoon and there was several inches of snow in town. I then drove south to Newport and there was at least 6" on the ground along 101 with sunny skies and a cool breeze blowing. It was beautiful!

 

The February 28/March 1st storm also dropped about 1-3" of snow in the Eugene and Salem areas on the morning of March 1, 2012, I had 16" snow fall total with that storm.

From what I remember from talking to my dad, the only storm where the snow didn't all melt later in the day at their place was the big late March one.

 

Regardless, certainly one of the snowiest Marches in modern records for the Willamette Valley.

[HighlandExperience]

Beautifully bright sunshine here too.

 

It seriously feels like there have been more sunny days than rainy ones this Winter.

 

http://www.washington.edu/cambots/camera1_l.jpg

 

This should be called "the year without a winter"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From what I remember from talking to my dad, the only storm where the snow didn't all melt later in the day at their place was the big late March one.

 

Regardless, certainly one of the snowiest Marches in modern records for the Willamette Valley.

 

That is true. The several other March events that year all melted within several hours of the snow ceasing down in the valley.

 

Even the snow at my location did not linger to long. The one in late March lasted the longest though because there were a few dry days that followed. Even a few days later there was still about 6" of snow on the ground at my place with sunny skies and highs in the low 50s. 

[Deweydog]

That is true. The several other March events that year all melted within several hours of the snow ceasing down in the valley.

 

Even the snow at my location did not linger to long. The one in late March lasted the longest though because there were a few dry days that followed. Even a few days later there was still about 6" of snow on the ground at my place with sunny skies and highs in the low 50s.

In 2008 it snowed at our house on April 19th and less than a month later it was in the mid 90's. The snow had melted by then, though.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/790-the-why-of-where-we-are/
 

[BLI snowman]

This upcoming weekend is looking like an impressive torch. We get a drizzly warm front followed by a major upper level ridge and southerly flow. Pretty ideal torching setup. Could be some 60/50 type days for someone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

View from my property this weekend. There is 14 to 16 inches there.

[Deweydog]

This upcoming weekend is looking like an impressive torch. We get a drizzly warm front followed by a major upper level ridge and southerly flow. Pretty ideal torching setup. Could be some 60/50 type days for someone.

It's not torching at this very moment. I deperately feel this needs to be pointed out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just a little cabin.

[BLI snowman]

It's not torching at this very moment. I deperately feel this needs to be pointed out.

 

Also try to keep in mind that Januaries 2007, 2008, and 2009 were below the 30 year average at SEA!

[TT-SEA]

Magnolia tree getting buds now...

 

[Jesse]

This upcoming weekend is looking like an impressive torch. We get a drizzly warm front followed by a major upper level ridge and southerly flow. Pretty ideal torching setup. Could be some 60/50 type days for someone.

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe places like SEA and BLI can set new all-time December and January highs in the same season!

[antipex]

Yesterday in a park near me I saw magnolia buds looking like they're about to open. I also saw blooming azaleas, vinca minor, a partially-blooming cherry tree, and several other flowers peeking out. It's very similar to last year except perhaps a bit earlier.

 

 

Magnolia tree getting buds now...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

What the hell!!!!???? It is fricken January!!!!

Epic!!!  <_>     Everything will balance out, my a**!

 

 

[MossMan]

View from my property this weekend. There is 14 to 16 inches there.

Some day I am really hoping to have a second home with your view. I think we all need to come invade your place sometime!!

 

How much property do you have?

[MossMan]

Just a little cabin.

Nice cabin...and truck!

[MossMan]

Nice cabin...and truck!

 

What the hell!!!!???? It is fricken January!!!!

Epic!!!  <_>     Everything will balance out, my a**!

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-20 at 2.14.38 PM.png

Think I will mow the yard, then go jetsking!

[Jesse]

Yesterday in a park near me I saw magnolia buds looking like they're about to open. I also saw blooming azaleas, vinca minor, a partially-blooming cherry tree, and several other flowers peeking out. It's very similar to last year except perhaps a bit earlier.

It's been an impressively short dormant season.

[Alex_Snakes]

Nice cabin...and truck!

 

Wife and I are looking into a cabin in E. WA. We have a 5 year plan to get something over there. Wife is from over there and is tired of two seasons.

[richard mann]

Any body here live under a main "flyway". ?
 
"Geese, wise". ?
 
http://www.wbu.com/chipperwoods/photos/geese.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73CmqAsdQyo
(posted, today. Location not disclosed.)

http://www.ducks.org/migrationmap .. Field reports submitted. Ducks, and Geese.

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