January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Maybe this will cheer some people up...misery loves company, right? Typical Nino-style blowtorch over most the U.S. over the past week.

 

 

 

 

Also, the Euro looked a little more promising at the end.

[stuffradio]

Maybe this will cheer some people up...misery loves company, right? Typical Nino-style blowtorch over most the U.S. over the past week.

 

7dTDeptUS.png

 

 

Also, the Euro looked a little more promising at the end.

Relatively speaking.

[Phil]

Maybe this will cheer some people up...misery loves company, right? Typical Nino-style blowtorch over most the U.S. over the past week.

 

7dTDeptUS.png

 

 

Also, the Euro looked a little more promising at the end.

I sense desperation. Here's the window of your forecasted blowtorch, half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ej64sj/640.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

I sense desperation. Here's your the window of your forecasted blowtorch..half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ej64sj/640.jpg

 

 

I'm comforted by the fact that Amarillo, Texas has seen more snow this month than Upstate New York.

[Phil]

Relatively speaking.

Yes. We've had four above normal days this month..and in that short span, we've had 6-10" of snow.

[Deweydog]

I sense desperation. Here's your the window of your forecasted blowtorch..half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ej64sj/640.jpg

Maybe I'm speaking out of turn but these maps going back and forth between you two is sooooo early January.

 

#nobodyf*****gcaresanymore

[Phil]

I'm comforted by the fact that Amarillo, Texas has seen more snow this month than Upstate New York.

We usually do well in Niño regimens, but we've been too dry. The lack of a SE ridge has hurt us, because there's no downstream supplementation (-NAO)..so, we've had a lot of weak, disorganized systems come through.

[Front Ranger]

I sense desperation. Here's the window of your forecasted blowtorch, half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

 

10th through 20th? And for the 1,000th time, I never forecasted a blowtorch for that time frame. 

 

Actually, I wasn't even thinking about that when I posted that map. But since you bring it up...sure feel free to post any map you can find of temps 10th-20th. Preferably in your winter forecast thread, not here.

[Front Ranger]

Yes. We've had four above normal days this month..and in that short span, we've had 6-10" of snow.

 

DCA has seen 12 above normal days this month. Only 4 below normal days since the 10th. So there's that.

[Phil]

10th through 20th? And for the 1,000th time, I never forecasted a blowtorch for that time frame.

 

Actually, I wasn't even thinking about that when I posted that map. But since you bring it up...sure feel free to post any map you can find of temps 10th-20th. Preferably in your winter forecast thread, not here.

Sure.

 

Here's the post you're obviously alluding to:

 

What is "true cold"? It looks like a colder than average pattern over the eastern 1/3 of the country, to me, at its worst. Typical Niño regimen over the NPAC as low-frequency forcing becomes dominant under a low W/H intensity ratio (Niño-esque).

 

I get that misery loves company, but what's being progged for the 2nd half of January is far from a coast to coast torch.

Come on.

[Front Ranger]

Sure.

 

Here's the post you're obviously alluding to:

 

 

Come on.

 

Nope. Believe it or not, most of the time I'm not thinking of anything you said when I post on here.

 

As I said, if you want to continue the whole mid-month anomalies thing, post it in your winter forecast thread or create a new one or something. Other people don't want to read it in this thread.

[Phil]

DCA has seen 12 above normal days this month. Only 4 below normal days since the 10th. So there's that.

DCA sits in the middle of a growing UHI bubble and is totally unrepresentative of the surrounding region. It's gotten to the point where you could consider it a microclimate.

 

IAD would be closer to reality, but there's a UHI signal there too. Best thing to use would be a wunderground aggregate.

[Guest Winterdog]

We usually do well in Niño regimens, but we've been too dry. The lack of a SE ridge has hurt us, because there's no downstream supplementation (-NAO)..so, we've had a lot of weak, disorganized systems come through.

I really wish you would lose the word "regimen", you have over-used it lately and it is very irritating.

 

Thank you,

Winterdog

[Phil]

I really wish you would lose the word "regimen", you have over-used it lately and it is very irritating.

 

Thank you,

Winterdog

 

What should I replace it with? Need something representative, but low in "irritability".

[snow_wizard]

I sense desperation. Here's the window of your forecasted blowtorch, half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

Considering we've been in an endless warm pattern that's pretty much a given.

[Jesse]

DCA sits in the middle of a growing UHI bubble and is totally unrepresentative of the surrounding region. It's gotten to the point where you could consider it a microclimate.

 

IAD would be closer to reality, but there's a UHI signal there too. Best thing to use would be a wunderground aggregate.

[Phil]

It's honestly that bad. I have family down there..it'll be 55 degrees in the City, and 35 degrees 10 miles away in Potomac, MD.

 

In the summer it's even worse..temps rarely drop below 70 now. Even in summers that are cool region wide, DCA will set monthly records in the "lows above 70" category. They set a new monthly record in July 2013, actually.

[snow_wizard]

The atmosphere is more Ninoish over the tropical Pacific now than it's been all winter so far. Not what you want to see this time of year. There's a good chance we will have a Nino next winter IMO. We may not break out of the overall horrendous pattern until spring 2016.

[wx_statman]

Its hard to believe, but Government Camp is torching for a third straight January. They hit 63 in both 2013 and 2014, and will probably get there again under the upcoming ridge. Their only warmer reading for the month is 65 back on 1-24-1968.

[Deweydog]

The atmosphere is more Ninoish over the tropical Pacific now than it's been all winter so far. Not what you want to see this time of year. There's a good chance we will have a Nino next winter IMO. We may not break out of the overall horrendous pattern until spring 2016.

I made it a personal policy not too long ago to not my pants about the upcoming winter until after President's Day.

[BLI snowman]

I sense desperation. Here's the window of your forecasted blowtorch, half of the US is below normal.

 

We're killing you guys

 

 

 

2.4" of snow in Washington D.C.

 

Remarkable stuff.

[wx_statman]

I made it a personal policy not too long ago to not s**t my pants about the upcoming winter until after President's Day.

 

Was there still snow on the ground when you s**t your pants last winter??

[Deweydog]

Was there still snow on the ground when you s**t your pants last winter??

Snow-free dungaree defecation in 2014!

[BLI snowman]

Its hard to believe, but Government Camp is torching for a third straight January. They hit 63 in both 2013 and 2014, and will probably get there again under the upcoming ridge. Their only warmer reading for the month is 65 back on 1-24-1968.

 

Unfortunately it isn't. Really is kind of the expectation nowadays for January.

[BLI snowman]

This winter has been pathetic across a large chunk of the country so far. Including Alaska. Just not a lot of action. 

 

Looks to stay that way through the end of the month.

[wx_statman]

Unfortunately it isn't. Really is kind of the expectation nowadays for January.

 

You know how they call winter DJF? We should just call it D.

[BLI snowman]

You know how they call winter DJF? We should just call it D.

 

Or in this year's case, N. 

[wx_statman]

This winter has been pathetic across a large chunk of the country so far. Including Alaska. Just not a lot of action. 

 

Looks to stay that way through the end of the month.

 

Alaska is roasting. Fairbanks is +9.8 since November 1st. No readings below -30 and only four below -20. I don't want to look it up, but I'm pretty sure they're in exclusive company for that sort of thing by this point in the season.

[Deweydog]

Alaska is roasting. Fairbanks is +9.8 since November 1st. No readings below -30 and only four below -20. I don't want to look it up, but I'm pretty sure they're in exclusive company for that sort of thing by this point in the season.

Lookout! Flatiron I guarantee is feverishly checking to see if they were close to average today.

[wx_statman]

Lookout! Flatiron I guarantee is feverishly checking to see if they were close to average today.

 

I don't think even the mighty Flatiron can un-skew this one!

[Phil]

2.4" of snow in Washington D.C.

 

Remarkable stuff.

I'm glad I don't live in that UHI hell hole.

[antipex]

For a mild maritime climate, western OR in particular has a fairly wide seasonal temperature range.

 

SLE has a nearly 28 degree mean temp difference from the coldest month to the warmest month. Greater than most other maritime locations like Dublin (18), Brussels (24), Melbourne (21), and Auckland (17). Average high temps is an even greater difference for western OR.

 

Of course, maritime locations along the East coasts of both North America and Asia have considerably greater temperature ranges.

 

 

Auckland and Melbourne have palm trees. Brussels and Dublin are far more oceanic climate-wise than Portland.

 

Compared to most other mid-latitude climates we don't really have "winter." You know, the snowy, cold time of the year with a dormant growing period that lasts significantly longer than ours. We don't really have that, and I'd argue that the cities you listed don't either.

[Phil]

This winter has been pathetic across a large chunk of the country so far. Including Alaska. Just not a lot of action.

 

Looks to stay that way through the end of the month.

It's been satisfactory here. We've had several sub-zero lows and a few days w/ blizzard conditions. The overall snow total is underwhelming, though.

[stuffradio]

It's great to have people from Maryland and Colorado coming here to brag about their winters in a PNW forum.

[Front Ranger]

It's great to have people from Maryland and Colorado coming here to brag about their winters in a PNW forum.

 

 

Where have I bragged about my winter? I've mentioned my winter in other threads...this is a Western US forum. This specifically is a PNW thread.

[snow_wizard]

Auckland and Melbourne have palm trees. Brussels and Dublin are far more oceanic climate-wise than Portland.

 

Compared to most other mid-latitude climates we don't really have "winter." You know, the snowy, cold time of the year with a dormant growing period that lasts significantly longer than ours. We don't really have that, and I'd argue that the cities you listed don't either.

Here it depends on the winter or even the decade. Blanket statements don't really cover the weather here.

[snow_wizard]

Alaska is roasting. Fairbanks is +9.8 since November 1st. No readings below -30 and only four below -20. I don't want to look it up, but I'm pretty sure they're in exclusive company for that sort of thing by this point in the season.

Normally we should have fared much better with such warmth up there. I feel like this ended up being a bad winter from bad luck more than anything like ENSO which was weak. Next winter could easily be the bad one from a significant Nino. We just can't win.

[Front Ranger]

Alaska is roasting. Fairbanks is +9.8 since November 1st. No readings below -30 and only four below -20. I don't want to look it up, but I'm pretty sure they're in exclusive company for that sort of thing by this point in the season.

 

Yup, the persistent -EPO has kept AK quite toasty. Like much of last winter.

 

They'll be seeing a lot more -20 and maybe some -30 days over the next week, though, as some below normal heights finally settle over the region for a bit.

[HighlandExperience]

Auckland and Melbourne have palm trees. Brussels and Dublin are far more oceanic climate-wise than Portland.

 

Compared to most other mid-latitude climates we don't really have "winter." You know, the snowy, cold time of the year with a dormant growing period that lasts significantly longer than ours. We don't really have that, and I'd argue that the cities you listed don't either.

 

Portland has a better climate for snow than Dublin. That place is terrible if you ever want snow. 

[Front Ranger]

Normally we should have fared much better with such warmth up there. I feel like this ended up being a bad winter from bad luck more than anything like ENSO which was weak. Next winter could easily be the bad one from a significant Nino. We just can't win.

 

It ain't over yet. Portland was pretty much snowless to this point last year, and they ended up doing alright.