January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Pretty crazy differences again in the models today. The UK and Euro are incredibly different from the GFS from day 5 on. The ensembles overall favor a more GFS-ish solution, but so much spread, a lot of possibilities still on the table for next week.

[DareDuck]

Pretty nice day in Bend. Mix of sun and clouds and fairly warm. Looking for houses, hopefully I find my new home here soon!

[snow_wizard]

Turns out the snow totals in New York City itself were not as impressive as originally hyped up to be.

 

Just under 8 inches recorded at Central Park, and 11 inches at the airport. Most of the heavy snowfall was concentrated to the North and East. Sounds like Long Island got some pretty good totals.

 

The suburbs just west of NYC only recieved 1-3 inches. Lots of weenies probably mad this morning.

 

Glad to know we aren't the only ones capable of a bust. This is pretty run of the mill for them compared to what was being advertised.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is actually somewhat similar (though about 24 hours delayed and minus the big low)

 

Plenty of cold air pretty close by days 7-9.

 

 

 

 

GFS is very different though with flat ridging/zonal flow progressing East over the West Coast.

An average the ECMWF and UKMET would be quite nice indeed. They are both very good models.

[snow_wizard]

Much better subsurface profile under the ENSO regions than what we have seen.  If we can get through this WWB without any major new downwelling Kelvin wave we may manage to escape a re-intensification of the Nino yet.

 

[TT-SEA]

Glad to know we aren't the only ones capable of a bust. This is pretty run of the mill for them compared to what was being advertised.

 

Totals from CT, MA, and RI are very impressive.   Not a bust.    

 

Lots of places closing in on 3 feet.     

[Front Ranger]

Totals from CT, MA, and RI are very impressive.   Not a bust.    

 

Lots of places closing in on 3 feet.     

 

Yeah, still a semi-historic storm for many coastal areas, just not as far south as they were thinking.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, still a semi-historic storm for many coastal areas, just not as far south as they were thinking.

Yes...I was referring to NYC.

[HighlandExperience]

Totals from CT, MA, and RI are very impressive.   Not a bust.    

 

Lots of places closing in on 3 feet.     

 

Still a bust for place to the south & west. The totals around NYC, and to the west were weak.

 

It would be like Vancouver BC getting 2 to 3 feet and Seattle getting a few inches with Tacoma getting 2 or 3 inches.

 

Places in New England always get big storms even though the size of this was impressive. 

[Deweydog]

I'll always remember the first person I heard about the MECS from was Phil.

 

#restinpeace

#prozac

[bainbridgekid]

75 degrees today in Denver after a high of 71 yesterday.

 

At least the NW isn't the only place getting so much warmth.

[Deweydog]

75 degrees today in Denver after a high of 71 yesterday.

 

At least the NW isn't the only place getting so much warmth.

I believe that's a new January high water mark for them.

[BLI snowman]

75 degrees today in Denver after a high of 71 yesterday.

 

At least the NW isn't the only place getting so much warmth.

 

Everyone west of the Mississippi has had it bad. Even Minneapolis has been above freezing a bunch recently and Fargo has no snow on the ground. 

[snow_wizard]

Everyone west of the Mississippi has had it bad. Even Minneapolis has been above freezing a bunch recently and Fargo has no snow on the ground.

Yeah...it is some consolation knowing this month hasn't been terrible just because we live in a bad climate. It is simply a terrible pattern on a very large scale.

[Deweydog]

Yeah...it is some consolation knowing this month hasn't been terrible just because we live in a bad climate. It is simply a terrible pattern on a very large scale.

Oh Jim...

[snow_wizard]

Missoula continues to fare much better than most places this month. They managed a 37-21 spread today in spite of some places in Montana being an epic torch right now. The more I look into that area the more I like it.

[snow_wizard]

Oh Jim...

I thought my post was reasonable.

[bainbridgekid]

Everyone west of the Mississippi has had it bad. Even Minneapolis has been above freezing a bunch recently and Fargo has no snow on the ground. 

Hill City, Kansas hit 83 today. That's in Northern Kansas only about 50 miles from Nebraska.

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG!!!! I am soo000000ooo Bored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

[Front Ranger]

I believe that's a new January high water mark for them.

 

It is indeed. I didn't even notice until now how warm they got today...it was slightly cooler than yesterday in my neck of the woods.

[MossMan]

OMG!!!! I am soo000000ooo Bored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe it will snow next week!

[Front Ranger]

Everyone west of the Mississippi has had it bad. Even Minneapolis has been above freezing a bunch recently and Fargo has no snow on the ground. 

 

Most of January wasn't terrible here...we were actually below normal until 3 days ago for the month, and there's been snow on the ground about half the month.

 

Very impressive torch for most of the Western half of the country over the past few days, though.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah...it is some consolation knowing this month hasn't been terrible just because we live in a bad climate. It is simply a terrible pattern on a very large scale.

 

Yup misery loves company. 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, Cheyenne also set a new January record - by 4 degrees, hitting 70. Can't find any other major stations in the region that set monthly records, but Casper only fell a couple degrees short.

 

Say what you want about this cold season, but it certainly has featured some major extremes in the West.

[Bryant]

MJO progression has slowed down compared to previous cycles. I have my eye on Feb 15th-25th for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

MJO progression has slowed down compared to previous cycles. I have my eye on Feb 15th-25th for the PNW

A slower wave might serve us well when it finally gets into the right place. It might have enough time to finally break the regime we have been in for so long.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, Cheyenne also set a new January record - by 4 degrees, hitting 70. Can't find any other major stations in the region that set monthly records, but Casper only fell a couple degrees short.

 

Say what you want about this cold season, but it certainly had featured some major extremes in the West.

This continues to smack of the 1930s IMO. There could be quite a cold period once this warm episode finally runs its course.

[Front Ranger]

MJO progression has slowed down compared to previous cycles. I have my eye on Feb 15th-25th for the PNW

 

Don't be silly. This winter ended weeks ago.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Maybe it will snow next week!

lol!! You should be a politician or a comic!

[luvssnow_spokane]

This continues to smack of the 1930s IMO. There could be quite a cold period once this warm episode finally runs its course.

just in time for spring..

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't be silly. This winter ended weeks ago.

yep.. U get a gold star!

[whitechristmas]

Interesting that the GFS predicted the lower snow amounts for the city (NYC) as the others failed miserably. Forecasters there went with the other ones. What happened to their model agreement? EURO was a loser on that one. This according to NBC Nightly News. Glad it doesn't happen to just US!

[Front Ranger]

yep.. U get a gold star!

 

Thanks.

 

The models are a mess trying to figure out next week. Beyond that, who knows. February could easily have some good things in store. It's very unlikely it will be a repeat of January.

[snow_wizard]

just in time for spring..

I think it may wait until autumn to finally change for good. If the Nino rekindles we probably won't fully come out of the warm regime until next spring (2016). The 1930s was marked by long periods of exceptional warmth alternating with long periods of exceptional cold. Hopefully we can pull off something like that.

[snow_wizard]

I'm beginning to think the GFS may win the GFS / vs ECMWF & UKMET battle. Could the GFS be a better model now?

[snow_wizard]

In a shocking turn of events the GFS is advertising a negative PNA later in week two. Hopefully we will see some support for that forthcoming.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

In a shocking turn of events the GFS is advertising a negative PNA later in week two. Hopefully we will see some support for that forthcoming.

 

 

I'm really... shocked.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian shows a warm pattern later next week.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

The GEM has been the least consistent model during a time when they've all been inconsistent.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

In a shocking turn of events the GFS is advertising a negative PNA later in week two. Hopefully we will see some support for that forthcoming.

 

There's a ridge building into the Bering Sea as of now, it's a shame the west coast ridge is also set to start amplifying at the same time.