tbone8 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm WarningStatement as of 3:08 AM CST on January 31, 2015...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 4 am EST /3 am CST/ Monday...The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow...which is in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 4 am EST /3 am CST/ Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.* Timing...snow will begin this evening...spreading from west to east. The snow will continue Sunday...then end Sunday night from west to east. The period of heaviest snow is expected from Sunday morning into early Sunday evening.* Snow accumulations...7 to 11 inches with locally higher amounts.* Impacts...periods of heavy snow with blowing and drifting snow making travel difficult or impossible with some unplowed roads becoming impassible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z GFS is even farther north than the 6z NAM. A bit wetter as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 8-10 inch WWA? Alright. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI310 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015MIZ071>074-311615-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0006.150201T0000Z-150202T1100Z/VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON310 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM EST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SUNDAY.* TOTAL SNOWFALL 8 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT CREATING BLOWING ANDDRIFTING CONDITIONS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOT says as much as 1/3 of qpf will be rain or non accumulating snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I do think the early phase (without cold air / snow cover present) is going to present problems for rain before changing to snow. Even here in C.IA that is something I'am looking at. Might eat away at snow totals. Might. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully I'll have something to shovel. 6z GFS trying to spread the love north. It's just been one of those agonizing years where we get snow but miss the heavy snow just north or south. Glad to see the "patience" of you southern posters be rewarded. No worries I'll get mine eventually. Except for Wednesday the models have handled this really well, especially the Canadian. They can't all be wrong,right? Maybe they finally figured this winter out? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Omg Can all the model's be wrong? I die if we got burned got hosed at this point considering they have Winterstorm warning up. Still a little nervous though. Hope this goes according the way the models are saying right now we all differently deserve this after suffering though this crappie winter to this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Currently 27 Everything looking good still nervous with the way this winter has been. Fingers crossed nothing goes terribly wrong at the last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Now if my Seahawks win the Superbowl that be the icing on the cake. It be awesome to win back to back Superbowl titles. Go 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Omg Can all the model's be wrong? I die if we got burned got hosed at this point considering they have Winterstorm warning up. Still a little nervous though. Hope this goes according the way the models are saying right now we all differently deserve this after suffering though this crappie winter to this point.I doubt they're and I think you can breath a sigh of relief. Water vapor imagery already looks great and you can tell that a significant drying trend isn't going to happen. Also, the track is completely set and the snow swath is so wide that any shifts won't really matter. The wait is finally over for this boards significant snow storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don't see anyway Chicago doesn't cash in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree Everything looks great. Checking radar looks to be already Snowing in Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 6Z NAM absolutely hammers us. 10-14" OMA/LNK. We are talking insane snowfall rates here. Could be some convection if I'm correct. Can't post maps, but looks like a beauty for Nebraska/IowaNWS is saying only 2-4" here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF plume mean now 14.7" here, over 11" at MKE now. MKX might need to add a few more counties to the warning if trends continue. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Currently sitting under a WWA with 4-8" expected. I just need another small shift North to be golden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 well then in some famous words......GAME ON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 about dang time Lol, that's funny stuff after last year's near historic winter, and would've probably been if ORD didn't lowball totals, you kicked much of Southern Wisconsin's butt in terms of snow totals, and they normally do better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sref up to 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sref avg is up to 15" for MKE and 13" IMBY. I Still think it's a bit overdone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sref avg is up to 15" for MKE and 13" IMBY. I Still think it's a bit overdone. I agree, but the average going up is a good sign for a continued north trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree, but the average going up is a good sign for a continued north trend.Yeah, this might end up like the Groundhogs day blizzard where we were on the Northern fringe, but at the last second it moved ever so slightly North and gave us some action. Time will tell, but I'm liking the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam actually looks a little south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 noise level stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 noise level stuffIt's not much but don't know if its just noise either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam actually looks a little southOnly significant for the northern cutoff. You look good for 4+ still though. Chicago still gets slammed with 12-14 on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Only significant for the northern cutoff. You look good for 4+ still though. Chicago still gets slammed with 12-14 on this run.Ya i think 4 inch max here. Chicago is good to go either way. Hell a 75 mile shift wouldn't kill chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam still looks good for Sheboygan and South Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nothing can change...I gave the game on call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sometimes that psychology works, and is part of the reason I prefer to lean to the negative side (I also feel if I'm negative enough, I get rid of the inner weenie and expectations become less).I think MKE is going to cash in big with Lehs snowfall. You guys normally do good when the wind is out of the NE, especially since the winds will be off the lake for such a long period of time. The only good thing you can take from the warm weather we had in December, is that the lake waters are still so warm and this will just add to snowfall totals. Skilling's RPM model nailed the GHD Blizzard and also the east coast storm. Look at the snowfall totals that are now just showing up in their latest model run. Some 16-20" totals in Lake/Kenosha county! Cook gets 12-16" which is sizing up to the SREF's. Great trends and we are getting closer to the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key. BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015013112/nam4km_asnow_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Parts of NE/IA also looks to get nailed with 12-16" totals.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I absolutely hate the Hires Nam. I can never tell the difference between the colors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key. BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right nowPretty sure whatever fell in the AM was supposed to be liquid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key. BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right nowHRRR has 5" by the end of the run and still snowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty sure whatever fell in the AM was supposed to be liquid.Yeah I know, someone here said there was snow already heading towards us, so was just letting them know it's rain although have heard reports of snow mixing in by Gretna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 How quickly things are changing for the better for our NE folks...man, the LRC certainly has done good with this storm. It's funny that earlier this week Gary Lezak was doubting this storm would phase and become what it is turning out to be. He should have paid attention to the -AO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah I know, someone here said there was snow already heading towards us, so was just letting them know it's rain although have heard reports of snow mixing in by GretnaSnowing here in Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Snowing here in Lincoln.I'm near the 27th street interstate section. Had a brief burst of some heavier snow but has since died down. temps at 34. Thinking were in a good spot. Just praying the transition occurs soon. Our totals would be incredible if this were all snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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