Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 too bad it won't verify though Oh Maxim....wish casting for no Snow again??? Snow flakes are going to fly in your back yard Sunday night that you obviously didn't want. Spring snows are common in this type of pattern that is setting up in the mid/long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Oh Maxim....wish casting for no Snow again??? Snow flakes are going to fly in your back yard Sunday night that you obviously didn't want. Spring snows are common in this type of pattern that is setting up in the mid/long range.So you think the Illinois-Wisconsin border will get 10" like that map is showing? 2 feet for the UP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 So you think the Illinois-Wisconsin border will get 10" like that map is showing? 2 feet for the UP?No, not at all, but your comments seem to say like there won't be any snow at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Let it Snow, Let it Snow....RPM has more snow than these amounts suggest...it will be interesting how much falls since it will primarily fall overnight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 ORD SREF mean up close to 4"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Up to 2.7" here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Back and forth, but the cold will win for the last time before we see Spring come back in mid April. Euro Ensembles still in agreement. The cold and warm cycles of the LRC have been both extreme in their own ways.The warm broke records here. We will see about the cold.. Have my doubts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 00z Euro is much colder late in the week, has a high in the low 30s Friday with strong wind. The normal high is low 50s by then. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 You guys in the Lakes can keep your nuisance snows to end out the winter season! I can officially say I'm done with this lame a$# winter here and have moved on to spring. Except for the first couple of days of March, we've had wonderful spring weather. Already hit 90, several days in the 60s and 70s, the grass is turning green and the leaves are coming out on the trees. I don't want anymore snow unless it's a big one. I'm sure we'll have a couple more cool spells, but the real cold looks like it wants to stay northeast of here and hopefully all the snow too. We've had 18" total here this year and 12" of that fell in a couple of days at the beginning of February. Bring on the thunderstorms and nice weather. For all the hoopla this winter was supposed to deliver it really was a dud, and that's the case for basically everyone in the US except for the Northeast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 jb and the what i am finding out that the tornado and severe weather will be above average this year thanks to the gulf of mexico so that means that this year will have above avg tornadoes and severe weather this year could be the big one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 With you NEJeremy, what a horrible winter for us in the plains. I didn't think it could be as lame as last winter but I was wrong. Bring on severe weather. Better luck next winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 ORD probably peaked for the high of the day about an hour ago at 33F, temp dropped to 32F when the snow began to fly. I think temps are forecast a bit to high for tomorrow. Models suggest low 30's, might not crack freezing tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Feels like a February day out there today. Sun has pretty much disappeared now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Interesting period shaping up over the next 10-15 days with the MJO heading into the cold phases (2 & 3) in March at the same time the Cold Phase of the LRC hit its stride. Using the East Asian Theory, there may be a big storm that hits somewhere in the central CONUS as we open April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 00z Euro the last couple runs showing a declining AO/EPO. Should be interesting to see if it holds and see the cold correct farther south in the longer range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 No way it's making the forecasted high today. Still at 28° at noon... on March 23rd! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Euro Ensembles/LRC and potential high latitude blocking are pointing to what could be a nasty open to the month of April. Not to mention, 10mb strat warming is blossoming as winter's last stance evolves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this.Before this system, I think ORD was at 43.7" and if they got over 6" they should have cracked 50". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 It's going to be the Upper Midwest's turn to get in on the snowy pattern setting up over the next 10 days. 12z GFS showing several systems... 00z Euro was showing something similar and today's 12z Euro hinting at a big Spring storm developing in the northern Plains Day 8-10. Track this far out not important, but someone will cash in on some Spring snow.s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 12z Euro with a monster classic Spring storm Day 9-10 that dumps major snows from the Dakotas/MN/WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Before this system, I think ORD was at 43.7" and if they got over 6" they should have cracked 50".Yep, just saw where it went over the 50" mark. Enough now, lets get onto spring and a early start to summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Bring on warmer weather with some spring storms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Nasty looking Easter Weekend shaping up on the 12z Euro Ensembles and the opening day's of April. People are going to wonder if this is natures's April Fool's joke. Baseball season opener's in the central CONUS may get interesting. Cub's opener is on April 5th vs Cardinals, Kansas City Royals opener April 6th vs Chicago White Sox. Let's see if nature cooperates. Notice the evolution of the NW NAMER ridge and blocking near the Pole indicative of a -AO. If everything aligns just right, could be a Top 10 (maybe 5) coldest opening days of April. Wild looking 500mb on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Nasty looking Easter Weekend shaping up on the 12z Euro Ensembles and the opening day's of April. People are going to wonder if this is natures's April Fool's joke. Baseball season opener's in the central CONUS may get interesting. Cub's opener is on April 5th vs Cardinals, Kansas City Royals opener April 6th vs Chicago White Sox. Let's see if nature cooperates. Notice the evolution of the NW NAMER ridge and blocking near the Pole indicative of a -AO. If everything aligns just right, could be a Top 10 (maybe 5) coldest opening days of April. Wild looking 500mb on the Euro.I sure hope the modeling is very wrong with this setup but long range GFS seems to be in agreement with the EURO. Could be a rough ride the next couple weeks with temps and frozen precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this.Looks like the Ukie/NAM/GFS may be showing some lakeside snowfall potential in WI/IL Thursday night. Cold NNE winds coming down the relatively "warmer" and open waters of Lake Michigan could produce some LES??? Would be wild to see on March 26th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 This year's LRC had extreme warmth and extreme cold. To be honest, I'm not shocked that the real cold is starting to show up. Meantime, ORD's official snowfall was 5.8" from today's system bringing the seasonal total to 50.1". Probably not the last snow fall it will see this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 No way it's making the forecasted high today. Still at 28° at noon... on March 23rd!I think the midnight temp will be the official high of 31F at ORD. Didn't even crack Freezing today. Won't be the last sub freezing high of the season. Interesting LES potential setting up Thursday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Midnight temp was 32 at ORD I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Temp already down to 25° here. Thinking upper teens for lows tonight. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory over here for 2-4" and possible thundersnow. Gotta love these springtime systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Temp already down to 25° here. Thinking upper teens for lows tonight.Got down to 12° at UGN... Pretty amazing, but they're like the radiational cooling capital of the country, lol. Only got down to 25° at ORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Had a nice heavy period of rain move through this morning. Temp was only 34 and at the end winds were real gusty out of the east up to 40 mph. It was funny some of the small airport reporting stations in the area were showing snow this morning even though there wasn't any falling. I'll have to check the rain gauge when I get home, but so far this month we were only at .03" of moisture(on pace for the 2nd driest ever I believe). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Last night's Euro Weeklies/Ensembles showed the colder than normal temps coming through the first 8 days or so of April, then a massive ridge builds in from the west that pushes east that locks and holds. There may be some volatile weather to open up April in the central CONUS and probably not the last Spring snows of the season. I booked my flight to AZ yesterday and will be flying out tonight. Enjoy the snows who gets them, Spring is around the corner...that's if Mother Nature cooperates! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 GFS seems to flip next week for bit at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 I know parts of the US were cold again in February, but meanwhile on the rest of the planet..... The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2015 was the second highest for February in the 136-year period of record, at 0.82°C (1.48°F), above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). The warmest February occurred in 1998, which was 0.86°C (1.55°F) above average. Nine of the past 12 months have been either warmest or second warmest on record for their respective months (March and July 2014 were each fourth warmest, while November was seventh warmest. From: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 I know parts of the US were cold again in February, but meanwhile on the rest of the planet..... The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2015 was the second highest for February in the 136-year period of record, at 0.82°C (1.48°F), above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). The warmest February occurred in 1998, which was 0.86°C (1.55°F) above average. Nine of the past 12 months have been either warmest or second warmest on record for their respective months (March and July 2014 were each fourth warmest, while November was seventh warmest. From: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/2Ha ha some on here will cringe at this. I am sure the data is made up.... Wink wink 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Was forecasted to have an 80% of rain last night and this morning. This morning we sit at 0.00. Missed again. Will be interesting to see the drought monitor come out later this week as last week we were already in early stages. Need a massive pattern change. Basically from Kearney NE and west it has been excessively dry. I know that places east of us got some rain this morning which is good for them. I have many students in my classes that have parents that farm or are in the farm industry and they mention to me how nervous their families are about the extended dry conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted March 24, 2015 Report Share Posted March 24, 2015 Was forecasted to have an 80% of rain last night and this morning. This morning we sit at 0.00. Missed again. Will be interesting to see the drought monitor come out later this week as last week we were already in early stages. Need a massive pattern change. Basically from Kearney NE and west it has been excessively dry. I know that places east of us got some rain this morning which is good for them. I have many students in my classes that have parents that farm or are in the farm industry and they mention to me how nervous their families are about the extended dry conditions. It will be another wet spring. The pattern will flip in April like it did last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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