2/25 - 2/26 Clipper

[Grizzcoat]

UK Met is also NE--- the GFS is really on it own for the western warning area--- going to be interesting.  ***edit***  I didn't look at the hi res nam -- more in line with the GFS but still going to be tracking the radar as I don't think parts of the warning area are a slam dunk

[Grizzcoat]

I know it's really a short range model deal now-- but the EURO gives warning snows to places in E.IA that are not currently under any type of advisory.

[Tom]

Latest HRRR....radar imagery has the heaviest precip way north in ND it seems....already looks like a solid Clipper.  Should expand its precip shield even farther overnight.

[ToastedRavs]

Sad that I have to rely on the GFS to be right, now.  As all others seem to be trending NE of me.  Oh well, still more systems in the offing even if this only gives me 3-4"

[Grizzcoat]

this is not boding well for the w. warning counties in IA. I have no faith in the GFS. Throwing in the towel on this one. Lucky to get 3". But that is a clipper for ya.....

[ToastedRavs]

As expected.  Warnings issued further east in IA...including Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.  Best of luck to those out there.

[ToastedRavs]

6z GFS still gives DSM around .5" qpf...I hope that holds...but doubt it will.  That's even with a further NE track

[james1976]

DMX has me in 8+ area now and a Warning.

[ToastedRavs]

DMX has me in 8+ area now and a Warning.

 

 

Yep, you are in a nice spot.  I am on SW side of DSM...rather be on NE side.  Looks like a FOD to IOW (Ft. Dodge to Iowa City) special!  Enjoy!!

[Seahawkfan]

Just woke up Wow Now we have a Winterstorm warning they upgraded us over night we were under a winter weather advisory. Clipper on roids we went from 3-5 Now they saying 6-9 not bad for a clipper.

[Andrew NE]

this is not boding well for the w. warning counties in IA. I have no faith in the GFS. Throwing in the towel on this one. Lucky to get 3". But that is a clipper for ya.....

 

You were pushing to hard for the trend to the east and now its going east of you  . Hope we can all cash in over the weekend and into early next week.

[gosaints]

WOW tough forecasting for des moines office

[Yerf]

Looking at the radar returns this system sure looks North of the projected area

[james1976]

Coming down hard!

[Tom]

12z GFS pretty generous for N IL...

 

 

Latest HRRR shows a nice lake plume developing around 11:00pm for NE IL...

[Yerf]

Right now, too much dry air in northern Illinois for any snow

[Tom]

Right now, too much dry air in northern Illinois for any snow

Yup, but best forcing arrives later this afternoon.  Hopefully the snow holds together.  Tracking weakening Clippers is the worst.

 

Regarding the LES, you could already see some forming in S Lake Michigan and it is swinging westward as winds are shifting out of the NE.

[Seahawkfan]

Still waiting on the clipper. Hope it doesn't end up busting They still saying heavy snow fall after 5 pm sticking with 6-8 snow totals.

[Tom]

Snow totals thus far in IA...James' are seems like it will do pretty well...http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/lsr_snowfall.png

[NEJeremy]

just witnessed the coolest frontal passage I can remember! I checked the radar as I was getting ready for work and noticed the bright banding just northwest of Omaha and the reports of snow right behind this, while we were getting light rain and were sitting at about 42 degrees.

I looked out the window and every once in a while could see a huge fat flake fall to the ground in the light rain. almost reminded me of hailstones falling very slowly!

I looked down at the kitchen sink for probably no more than 5 seconds and looked up just in time to see a huge gust of wind blow through and with it a wall of HUGE snowflakes!! These flakes were probably half dollar to golf ball sized and now it was just snowing like crazy. The temp dropped 10 degrees in less than 10 minutes and the gusty northwest winds continued. This was one of the quickest and most dramatic cases of a changeover from rain to snow I can ever remember. Obviously that wall of wind came with the frontal passage and with it pulled down all the heavy snow that was falling just above the ground moments earlier. Call me a weather nerd, but this is why I love weather!

[Snowlover76]

just witnessed the coolest frontal passage I can remember! I checked the radar as I was getting ready for work and noticed the bright banding just northwest of Omaha and the reports of snow right behind this, while we were getting light rain and were sitting at about 42 degrees.

I looked out the window and every once in a while could see a huge fat flake fall to the ground in the light rain. almost reminded me of hailstones falling very slowly!

I looked down at the kitchen sink for probably no more than 5 seconds and looked up just in time to see a huge gust of wind blow through and with it a wall of HUGE snowflakes!! These flakes were probably half dollar to golf ball sized and now it was just snowing like crazy. The temp dropped 10 degrees in less than 10 minutes and the gusty northwest winds continued. This was one of the quickest and most dramatic cases of a changeover from rain to snow I can ever remember. Obviously that wall of wind came with the frontal passage and with it pulled down all the heavy snow that was falling just above the ground moments earlier. Call me a weather nerd, but this is why I love weather!

Same thing happened here in Lincoln. Pretty cool.

[Seahawkfan]

Finally beginning to Snow here. Should pick up of the next couple of hours.

[james1976]

Snow totals thus far in IA...James' are seems like it will do pretty well...http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/lsr_snowfall.png

That 6" total is just west of me. I'm not home but I will be in a while and Ill measure.

[IAWXFan1]

I received 6" in Northeast Iowa here from this clipper. Apparently we got lucky under a nice band that formed just north of Highway 20. Pretty decent for this type of system. Considering the forecast was 1-3" yesterday, this was a nice surprise. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/AJI8XsK.jpg

[FV-Mike]

Flakes starting to fly out here

[james1976]

5.7" in my driveway. Its about done. I dont think I will hit 6" but it was a nice system. Quick hitting. Models had snow going until atleast 9pm for some reason.

[Tom]

LehS showing up in Cook county on radar.  Winds have picked up out of the NE and are coming off of that warm pocket of water in southern Lake Michigan.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

 

 

Here are the wind profiles:

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

[Niko]

My area gets 0.5". That's all! Chicagoland should do fairly good. Couple of inches possible. Not too shabby for a clipper.

[Tom]

Sitting at 0.5" so far...some medium sized flakes mixing in...certainly may be the lake adding more moisture.  Could be interesting tonight when winds turn more NNE and come down the length of the lake.  The RPM model may be onto something and parts of Lake/Cook county may pick up 3-4".

[Geos]

Nice weather report Jeremy!

 

Mainly fine flakes here, but occasionally full dendrites fall for a short time. Thinking there is some lake influence, but not a lot. About 0.8" so far.

[Tom]

Some mini lake bands starting to form off the lake now...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150226.0121.gif

[james1976]

Just cleared the driveway. The neighborhood looks great with all the snow piles! This should push me over 30" on the season. Avg is 35". Maybe next week we can surpass the seasonal avg.

[Tom]

Currently sitting underneath that "mini" lake band in N Cook and flake size is much bigger than the "grainy" system snows.  Sitting at 1.25" right now.  

[Tom]

This lake band is awesome!  Getting some good snow fall rates ATM.  Bands are increasing in intensity it seems.  DT Chicago should be doing pretty well right now.

 

Just did a quick measurement and I picked up an additional 0.5" in the past 30 minutes so its snowing at a pretty good clip here.  Nice medium sized flakes.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150226.0200.gif

[Tom]

Sitting at 2.0"...parts of Chicago must be getting pounded by those bands.  Looking forward to seeing that lake plume form later on.

 

 

[ToastedRavs]

Congrats, Tom.  Only got 1.1" at my house.  What a dissapointment.  Much of the metro of DSM got only 1-1.5".  Oh to have a lake by us!

[Geos]

It's been dumping snow in the last 20 minutes here. Looks like LES. Just under 2" so far.

[Tom]

It's been dumping snow in the last 20 minutes here. Looks like LES. Just under 2" so far.

Right!  If you get underneath these bands it looks so nice outside.  The snowfall rates are variable but when it starts back up its coming down pretty good.  If we can get a whole night of this LES there could be some hefty totals lakeside.

 

I think the beginning of the lake plume is forming way up north just east of GRB.

[Geos]

With the temperatures in the teen the snow is stacking up quick. I'd probably say the snow now is over 20:1 ratio.

[Hawkeye]

The wind was stronger than expected here this afternoon, which made it tougher to measure.  Checking around the yard I came up with about 4.3 inches.  I always have trouble finding the same amounts others in the area get when there is wind.  Tomorrow I'll check some other spots toward the edge of the yard.