March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Tyler Mode]

I work early tomorrow, but I will be headed out east my guess is.  Skies should clear some overnight even west side, but how much remains to be seen, and if fog will form.

Forecast is for active Aurora to continue tonight. If anyone sees anything they should definitely post pictures. Hope it clears out up here to see them.

[Jesse]

The area was hit incredibly hard by the housing bust. I do believe it is picking back up though as the economy improves. The problem with the economy in Central Oregon is that is built largely upon retirees and the travel industry, so there aren't a ton of high paying jobs. Maybe this situation is improving, but that was always the knock on the Central Oregon economy.

 

I'm OK with development being limited down there by any factor. Bend's sprawl is getting out of hand. Same with Redmond's. I've been going over there for years to visit family in Terrebonne and it is incredible how much everything has built up in the last 15.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm OK with development being limited down there by any factor. Bend's sprawl is getting out of hand. Same with Redmond's. I've been going over there for years to visit family in Terrebonne and it is incredible how much everything has built up in the last 15.

My first memory of bend is from the early 90s. Different place now.

[Front Ranger]

The long term average is 32", but it looks like the 1980-2010 average is just 24".

 

I don't think that's accurate. Missing a lot of data some crucial years in 2006-07 (only .1" recorded) and 2007-08 (only 1.5" recorded).

 

Probably more like 27-28" if those years were accurate.

 

Fun fact: Bend saw more snow in 1992-93 (89.6") than 1968-69 (74.5") and 1949-50 (71"). Would have been interesting to see what they got in 2007-08.

[Jesse]

My first memory of bend is from the early 90s. Different place now.

 

It was a small town back then.

 

My Dad used to stay in Terrebonne almost every summer back in the 1960s and 70s. He would explore the Smith Rock area quite a bit which was mostly undeveloped and basically wild back then. None of the McMansions that dot the road to the state park these days. Just coyotes, jackrabbits, antelope and arrowheads out there.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=74498
 
.. Some retrospective documentation of the recent more substantial storm having moved through the PNW, having impacted areas north of Portland. 
 
— A three-hourly IR sequence that I've generated and uploaded to "YouTube" for review. Along with a slant of my own attached to and accompanying this idea.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was a small town back then.

 

My Dad used to stay in Terrebonne almost every summer back in the 1960s and 70s. He would explore the Smith Rock area quite a bit which was mostly undeveloped and basically wild back then. None of the McMansions that dot the road to the state park these days. Just coyotes, jackrabbits, antelope and arrowheads out there.

First went to smith rock in 1998. My dad was so disappointed by the development around it he s never been back.

[bainbridgekid]

I don't think that's accurate. Missing a lot of data some crucial years in 2006-07 (only .1" recorded) and 2007-08 (only 1.5" recorded).

 

Probably more like 27-28" if those years were accurate.

 

Fun fact: Bend saw more snow in 1992-93 (89.6") than 1968-69 (74.5") and 1949-50 (71"). Would have been interesting to see what they got in 2007-08.

It's amazing how snow recording has gotten worse in recent years rather than better.

 

The fact that there is more reliable snowfall data from 50+ years ago than today for many cities is pretty pathetic.

[Front Ranger]

It's amazing how snow recording has gotten worse in recent years rather than better.

 

The fact that there is more reliable snowfall data from 50+ years ago than today for many cities is pretty pathetic.

 

Yeah, I don't get it either. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like spring is taking a break in the Upper Midwest for awhile.

 

Just ran the GFS MeteoStar for Minneapolis... 850mb temps below zero for the next week and most of the next 16 days.   Bottoming out at -11C with several shots of -10C.

[richard mann]

Per Scott Sistek... Sunday's 2.20 inches was the wettest day in 6 years in Seattle (2.29 inches fell on 1/7/2009).  

 

It was also the 24th wettest day in Seattle history... and the second wettest day ever in March.

 

So I'm figuring that if you, go to Mexico, .. and Fred goes to "Palm Springs", .. And everybody else reading this either stays where they are or goes back to where they were, when it did ..... 

 

...... I'll get some more rain here.

[bainbridgekid]

2.20 inches at SEA yesterday.   Smashing the old record of 1.20 from 1974.

 

Now at 3.08 inches for March which is 165% of normal to this point.

 

Don't need rain now!    

The rain was perfectly timed on Sunday.

 

Saturday was dry and the rain didn't start till just after Midnight and then it stopped just about right at Midnight Sunday evening. Monday only recorded 0.04" of rain.

 

It's fairly rare to have 24 straight hours of rain like that, but the fact that it lined up so perfectly with the calendar day is what makes it look so impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Back home now... I see the tall cottonwoods behind our house are all leafed out green now.     That is crazy early for that to happen.   The soaking rain helped speed things up even more it appears.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back home now... I see the tall cottonwoods behind our house are all leafed out green now.     That is crazy early for that to happen.   The soaking rain helped speed things up even more it appears.

 

Today is my first day back in Oregon in about a week and the cottonwoods here at the office along the Willamette River are really starting to leaf out. 

[TT-SEA]

Today is my first day back in Oregon in about a week and the cottonwoods here at the office along the Willamette River are really starting to leaf out. 

 

Time to start mowing here as well.

 

I took my daughter to Bellevue this morning and our trees up here are as advanced if not more than there... normally we are 2 weeks behind.

 

I think it has been as warm or warmer up here in the last month with more offshore flow and less fog.

[jcmcgaffey]

Time to start mowing here as well.

 

I took my daughter to Bellevue this morning and our trees up here are as advanced if not more than there... normally we are 2 weeks behind.

 

I think it has been as warm or warmer up here in the last month with more offshore flow and less fog.

I think you're right.  I noticed the same thing coming down from Snoqualmie pass into Seattle on Sunday.  The cottonwoods haven't started to leaf out yet here in Fremont.  I always figured the length of day has the most effect on plants/trees blooming while weather has an affect as well but not as much.  I think it is a combo of the two with the length of days having more of an affect.  I have always been curious as to how much an effect the weather has on the blooming in the spring and the turning color of the leaves in the fall.  I know it does but not sure of the extent.  I guess the weather can speed up or delay things by a couple weeks depending on the extremity of the weather and the types of trees. 

[ShawniganLake]

From Brett Anderson.

 

"Models trending toward strong El Nino by the is summer...if true then 2015 has high chance of being warmest on record globally."

[Timmy]

Today is my first day back in Oregon in about a week and the cottonwoods here at the office along the Willamette River are really starting to leaf out. 

Pretty incredible up here too, I didn't have to mow until april last year, and I have already this year.  The alders are budding as well much sooner and daffodils are in full bloom.

[HighlandExperience]

From Brett Anderson.

 

"Models trending toward strong El Nino by the is summer...if true then 2015 has high chance of being warmest on record globally."

 

More torching. <_>

[TT-SEA]

Cottonwoods leafing out this morning...

[Jesse]

From Brett Anderson.

 

"Models trending toward strong El Nino by the is summer...if true then 2015 has high chance of being warmest on record globally."

Will it be the warmest on record globally at OLM, though?

[Jesse]

Long range trending warmer.

 

A record warm month is still looking very likely. PDX is already tied for 5th warmest. Today should have something like a +9 departure.

[BLI snowman]

Long range trending warmer.

 

A record warm month is still looking very likely. PDX is already tied for 5th warmest. Today should have something like a +9 departure.

 

It'll take some 70+ days or 50+ lows the rest of the month for that to happen, as records are starting to gravitate upwards this time of the year. Hardly a lock.

[Jesse]

It'll take some 70+ days or 50+ lows the rest of the month for that to happen, as records are starting to gravitate upwards this time of the year. Hardly a lock.

Time will tell!

 

Record warmest for PDX is 52.3. They are sitting at 51 today.

 

All I know is I am still prolapsing here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its been a WARM month!

[BLI snowman]

Time will tell!

 

Record warmest for PDX is 52.3. They are sitting at 51 today.

 

All I know is I am still prolapsing here!

 

You should distract yourself with something less stressful than warm anomalies, like soap operas or sports. 

[Deweydog]

Time will tell!

 

Record warmest for PDX is 52.3. They are sitting at 51 today.

 

All I know is I am still prolapsing here!

My uncle ended up having to have surgery for said issue. I believe it was a result of the February 1991 through August 1992 stretch. His poop shoot felt pretty silly by March 1993!

[BLI snowman]

My uncle ended up having to have surgery for said issue. I believe it was a result of the February 1991 through August 1992 stretch. His poop shoot felt pretty silly by March 1993!

 

The cold July of 1993 must have been pretty anally therapeutic! 

[Deweydog]

Its been a WARM month!

Not quite as quiet though!

[Deweydog]

The cold July of 1993 must have been pretty anally therapeutic!

Marine influence = Preparation H

[HighlandExperience]

From Brett Anderson.

 

"Models trending toward strong El Nino by the is summer...if true then 2015 has high chance of being warmest on record globally."

 

Warmest winter on record already.

 

Just waiting for a new round of articles declaring the end of snow.

[Deweydog]

So what does that make a backdoor arctic blast?

Ned Beatty.

[Jesse]

Marine influence = Preparation H

Does the H stand for high pressure offshore?

[Deweydog]

Does the H stand for high pressure offshore?

 

Yes! And the Preparation stands for Lake Washington yuppie sailors prepare to die!  

[richard mann]

Cottonwoods leafing out this morning...

 

Looks more like, just more than "leaf break" (i.e. more initial stage of leafing.), as opposed to more "fully" "leafed out", as you appeared to have been saying more above.  .. "first or more initial leaf break", "initial leafing out", and at more "full leaf" or "fully leafed out" would be the most accurate descriptions where considering the idea. If you care. .. You appear to be interested in the "phenology" more plants focused. Trees more deciduous / fruit, certainly.

[TT-SEA]

Looks more like, just more than "leaf break" (i.e. more initial stage of leafing.), as opposed to more "fully" "leafed out", as you appeared to be saying more above.  .. "first or more initial leaf break", "initial leafing out", and a more "full leaf" or "fully leafed out" would be the most accurate descriptions where considering the idea. If you care. .. You appear to be interested in the "phenology" more plants focused. Trees certainly. 

 

 

I said they were now leafing out... not fully leafed out.  

 

Thought that was pretty clear.   Nonetheless... that is about a month earlier than usual for those cottonwoods to begin the process of leafing out.   

[richard mann]

".. all, leafed out" professor.

 

(Deal with the ambiguity @. .. I have.)

[TT-SEA]

".. all, leafed out" professor.

 

(Deal with the ambiguity @. .. I have.)

 

Sorry... I did see that in my first post.   I corrected later.   Obviously they are not fully leafed out.   Nobody up here would assume that but you CA folks might not be as in tune with the progression of spring in the PNW.  

[Jesse]

I've noticed this year's warm temps have left flowers that are usually the star of the show in March just feeling muted and kind of rushed along.

[Deweydog]

I've noticed this year's warm temps have felt nice.