March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Way too cloudy to get too warm today. Kind of a bummer. If it's gonna be warm, might as well go big. Today had the potential to be 70 degrees without these clouds but most areas will probably top out 64-68.

 

It's pretty tough to hit 70 this early for most of western WA.

 

Earliest 70 on record for SEA is 2/27 in 1968, and next earliest is 3/13 in 1979. Last time they hit 70 before 3/29 was 1996.

 

BLI supposedly hit 70+ twice in early Feb 2012, but pretty sure that's an error. Otherwise, the earliest they've hit 70 isn't until 3/28 in 1994. Though they did hit 69 on 3/11/65.

 

OLM's earliest 70+ came on 2/27/86, and it's happened five other years as early or earlier than 3/13.

 

On the other hand, some of the eastern locations near the foothills have done it much easier. Monroe, for example, has several 70+ readings in late Jan/early Feb, and has hit 70+ this early as recently as 2007. On 3/10/34 they hit 77.

[TT-SEA]

It's pretty tough to hit 70 this early for most of western WA.

 

Earliest 70 on record for SEA is 2/27 in 1968, and next earliest is 3/13 in 1979. Last time they hit 70 before 3/29 was 1996.

 

BLI supposedly hit 70+ twice in early Feb 2012, but pretty sure that's an error. Otherwise, the earliest they've hit 70 isn't until 3/28 in 1994. Though they did hit 69 on 3/11/65.

 

OLM's earliest 70+ came on 2/27/86, and it's happened five other years as early or earlier than 3/13.

 

On the other hand, some of the eastern locations near the foothills have done it much easier. Monroe, for example, has several 70+ readings in late Jan/early Feb, and has hit 70+ this early as recently as 2007. On 3/10/34 they hit 77.

Can't remember what year but I have hit 70 before this point.

[Bham_Guy]

It's pretty tough to hit 70 this early for most of western WA.

 

Earliest 70 on record for SEA is 2/27 in 1968, and next earliest is 3/13 in 1979. Last time they hit 70 before 3/29 was 1996.

 

BLI supposedly hit 70+ twice in early Feb 2012, but pretty sure that's an error. Otherwise, the earliest they've hit 70 isn't until 3/28 in 1994. Though they did hit 69 on 3/11/65.

 

OLM's earliest 70+ came on 2/27/86, and it's happened five other years as early or earlier than 3/13.

 

On the other hand, some of the eastern locations near the foothills have done it much easier. Monroe, for example, has several 70+ readings in late Jan/early Feb, and has hit 70+ this early as recently as 2007. On 3/10/34 they hit 77.

 

It is

[Front Ranger]

Can't remember what year but I have hit 70 before this point.

 

Probably 2007. Landsburg did it on 3/6.

[TT-SEA]

Probably 2007. Landsburg did it on 3/6.

 

Its 69.5 at the nearest weather station to my house right now even with the clouds.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Peaked at 67F here. Cloud thickening rapidly now.

[Deweydog]

The very recent is all that matters. I've heard.

 

2006-close to now!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Can't remember what year but I have hit 70 before this point.

I bet your area has done it multiple times. It can so easily be 8-10 degrees warmer in the foothills than Seattle with offshore flow in situations like this.

[TT-SEA]

I bet your area has done it multiple times. It can so easily be 8-10 degrees warmer in the foothills than Seattle with offshore flow in situations like this.

 

Straight up 70 at my house right now... just checked the web cams and its solidly cloudy there so that is impressive.   Good offshore gradients right now.    Might have been 75 if the clouds held off for 2-3 more hours.

[Jesse]

For a minute there it was looking like we might get a sharp front on Sunday and some coolish nights again early next week.

 

Now it basically looks like a mild drizzle fest tomorrow through Tuesday.

[Deweydog]

For a minute there it was looking like we might get a sharp front on Sunday and some coolish nights again early next week.

 

Now it basically looks like a mild drizzle fest tomorrow through Tuesday.

We blew our sharp front budget already this week.

[TT-SEA]

We blew our sharp front budget already this week.

That was an insane cold front.

[richard mann]

.. Einstein's more basic definition. ? .. Or with some "lower stuff" behind it. ?

[TT-SEA]

Wheels look like they are coming off for next week.   

 

Might be plenty of warm rain in our future!

[bainbridgekid]

This front's coming in WAY earlier than forecast.

 

The 00z WRF is totally dry till 4 AM for the Central Sound, yet there has been a solid slog of rain over all of Western Washington for hours.

 

Pretty rare to see this kind of huge stratiform precipitation bust inside 12 hours.

[Front Ranger]

Wheels look like they are coming off for next week.   

 

Might be plenty of warm rain in our future!

 

Getting close to the point where "warm" rain is relative. Once you get into late March, rainy weather generally doesn't produce much in the way of warm anomalies.

[Tyler Mode]

0.57" already today.  My wettest day since February 9th. 

[TT-SEA]

Getting close to the point where "warm" rain is relative. Once you get into late March, rainy weather generally doesn't produce much in the way of warm anomalies.

 

 

I meant in terms of mountain snow... or lack thereof.

[TT-SEA]

0.57" already today.  My wettest day since February 9th. 

 

Looks like some uniform rain totals up there.

 

My location is at .55 and SEA is at .58 now.

 

Must not be any orographic component yet.

[Tyler Mode]

I'd say that part just took over as there is a huge rain shadow over Portland now with rain in the coast range and Cascades.  We'll see how long it lasts as there looks to be another surge of moisture headed in according to the IR.

Looks like some uniform rain totals up there.

 

My location is at .55 and SEA is at .58 now.

 

Must not be any orographic component yet.

[MossMan]

Looks like some uniform rain totals up there.

 

My location is at .55 and SEA is at .58 now.

 

Must not be any orographic component yet.

Other than some drizzle first thing this morning we have been pretty much dry and breezy up here thanks to a nice rain shadow. I will take it!

[TT-SEA]

Finally a good day not to be home. Tomorrow now looks bad as well.

[Jesse]

12Z EURO is nice. Looks vaguely seasonable.

[Deweydog]

12Z EURO is nice. Looks vaguely seasonable.

 

New climate or old climate seasonable?  

[Jesse]

New climate or old climate seasonable?  

 

1981-2010 seasonable.

[MossMan]

Today turned out much more pleasant than I thought it was going to be! For the most part it was a dry, warm, and breezy day up here. Very thankful for the Olympics on this Saturday!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's amazing how the years just slip on by and our climate continues to suck.

[Jesse]

It's amazing how the years just slip on by and our climate continues to suck.

 

Having a bad day?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Having a bad day?

"Everyday above grounds a good day, remember that. " - Pitbull

[Jesse]

"Everyday above grounds a good day, remember that. " - Pitbull

 

What if you're a hobbit?

[luminen]

It's amazing how the years just slip on by and our climate continues to suck.

 

Yeah it can be a bad climate but when things line up, it's really good, whether it's winter, spring, fall, or summer. Spring 2014 was very pleasant, at least in Eugene.

 

How was OKC? They had some decent rain recently I think.

[Jesse]

Yeah it can be a bad climate but when things line up, it's really good, whether it's winter, spring, fall, or summer. Spring 2014 was very pleasant, at least in Eugene.

 

How was OKC? They had some decent rain recently I think.

 

By "line up" you mean record warmth and drought, right?

[luminen]

Nope.

 

All I know is that March-June last year in Eugene was really nice. March was pretty wet still actually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah it can be a bad climate but when things line up, it's really good, whether it's winter, spring, fall, or summer. Spring 2014 was very pleasant, at least in Eugene.

 

How was OKC? They had some decent rain recently I think.

I'm actually near Tulsa now. yesterday was a soaker. Today was really nice. Filtered sunshine and 65.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like the Cascades in Washington above 4K should get a little snow at least over the next few days. Maybe a 12+ inches in the higher elevations. Every bit helps at this point.

[bainbridgekid]

70 degrees in Wenatchee today. Ties the record for the date.

 

Their March record is 78 though, so this kind of March warmth is not that unusual for them.

[HighlandExperience]

00z WRF still shows decent snows over North Cascades. Doesn't look so great for Oregon though. 

 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow24.36.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

00z WRF still shows decent snows over North Cascades. Doesn't look so great for Oregon though. 

The WRF has changed enormously for tomorrow over the last 24 hours.

 

Last night's run had very little snow in the Olympics and centered the snowfall over the higher elevations of the Central Cascades.

 

Tonight's gives the Olympics over a foot of snow and buries the North Cascades with very little South of there.

 

Axis of precip moved way North and will be centered over the Central/North Sound tomorrow instead of Portland.

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF has changed enormously for tomorrow over the last 24 hours.

 

Yes there has some really great improvements over the past 24 hours for the Cascades of WA and BC. Decent amount of snow North of I-90 above 4K.  If the higher end totals verify, this will definitely slow down the current clearing effort along hwy 20. 

 

Things look pretty sad for Oregon though. Barely any snow except for the highest peaks.

[Jesse]

Yes there has some really great improvements over the past 24 hours for the Cascades of WA and BC. Decent amount of snow North of I-90 above 4K.  If the higher end totals verify, this will definitely slow down the current clearing effort along hwy 20. 

 

Things look pretty sad for Oregon though. Barely any snow except for the highest peaks.

 

At least the Washington Cascades get more snow overall on the latest runs.

 

Also, snow levels must be a little lower down here, since the WRF shows some snow over the Indian Heaven area.