February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I meant 12 hour total ending at hour 48. Anyway it the low is strong enough and stays south of Olympic peninsula we'll most likely see snow at least until it dies over Cascades.

 

 

I agree.

 

Tough call for sure.    The 12Z ECMWF will be very telling.

 

The 00Z ECMWF was totally dry for Sunday.   

[Jesse]

Sunrise out my front door this morning

 

 

[Snowman5678]

 

nothing more magical than snow in the PNW! thanks for the pics andrew!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 with snow at EUG. According to the models they are in the 30s right now...

This year for them has been off the ******* charts.

[Snowman5678]

1/10,000,000th of snow this morning. If you look really closely you might see the flakes.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunrise out my front door this morning

Glad you got to enjoy a good storm there before you left. Had a long wait. Reminds me of when I  moved to hood canal and the first few years were lame.

[GHweatherChris]

1/10,000,000th of snow this morning. If you look really closely you might see the flakes.

 

Lucky!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like its coming down pretty good about 15 miles N of Eugene

 

http://www.tripcheck.com/roadcams/cams/LakeCreek_pid1355.jpg?0.5833943

[TT-SEA]

1/10,000,000th of snow this morning. If you look really closely you might see the flakes.

 

 

 

That is about what I have here!    I saw about 10 flakes on the hot tub cover this morning.   

[HighlandExperience]

I agree.

 

Tough call for sure.    The 12Z ECMWF will be very telling.

 

The 00Z ECMWF was totally dry for Sunday.   

 

Yesterday's 12z Canadian was dry for our location on Sunday, but today's run is showing potential snow. Hopefully the ECMWF follows suit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like there is more precip this morning then was modeled.

[epiceast]

And just for fun... this is probably a foot of snow with snow levels at 1000-1500 feet.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday's 12z Canadian was dry for our location on Sunday, but today's run is showing potential snow. Hopefully the ECMWF follows suit.

 

This has been so confusing.

 

Yesterday the 00Z ECMWF showed a snowstorm for us on Saturday and now the models this morning so far show nothing even close.  Maybe that will still be there on the 12Z run.

 

Saturday is better than Sunday.    The air mass will be moderating so the sooner the better.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I would post images from our snow here but am unable too. For some reason it limits me to 150kb which is lame.

[epiceast]

This has been so confusing.

 

Yesterday the 00Z ECMWF showed a snowstorm for us on Saturday and now the models this morning so far show nothing even close.  Maybe that will still be there on the 12Z run.

 

Saturday is better than Sunday.    The air mass will be moderating so the sooner the better.

If we get a sub 1000mb low passing south of us, things will fall back into place. 1005 will probably work as well.

[GHweatherChris]

The satellite looks alot more promising offshore with the surface low west of the Columbia, there is definite NE movement with the clouds.

 

Also there has been some lightning strikes out there too.

[TT-SEA]

If we get a sub 1000mb low passing south of us, things will fall back into place. 1005 will probably work as well.

 

Definitely... if it goes south then its all good.

 

My guess is that the lows will start moving towards Vancouver Island once the flow starts opening up Sunday and Monday.   And when that happens... the south wind will come.     It won't stay like this forever.

[epiceast]

The satellite looks alot more promising offshore with the surface low west of the Columbia, there is definite NE movement with the clouds.

 

Also there has been some lightning strikes out there too.

I do like that cloud shield off the Columbia.

[MossMan]

Yeah Dadio, I got very lucky that Friday before Christmas! Nothing like waking up to a white landscape!! Here was a pic of that 3" morning...

[HighlandExperience]

The satellite looks alot more promising offshore with the surface low west of the Columbia, there is definite NE movement with the clouds.

 

Also there has been some lightning strikes out there too.

 

Perhaps it is my imagination, but what is happening in the Pacific looks much more favorable than what we had yesterday at this time.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snow  from the swamp highlands.  --- Currently 24 degrees

 

 

[Jesse]

The satellite looks alot more promising offshore with the surface low west of the Columbia, there is definite NE movement with the clouds.

 

Also there has been some lightning strikes out there too.

Yikes, hope that doesn't end up coming further north than anyone anticipated. I am fine with it moving down through Eugene.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely... if it goes south then its all good.

 

My guess is that the lows will start moving towards Vancouver Island once the flow starts opening up Sunday and Monday.   And when that happens... the south wind will come.     It won't stay like this forever.

We didn't think the ridge would last all winter either.

[Dadio]

That is about what I have here!    I saw about 10 flakes on the hot tub cover this morning.   

Quite a surprise for you to have less than so many others, but you'll make up for it before the year is over.

[Jesse]

Precip definitely seems to be ahead of schedule down the valley. Almost to Salem. Judging by the radar you would think snow is just a few hours away for Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Was that small rotation off the Columbia in the models? Sat pic all of a sudden looks very interesting.

[GHweatherChris]

Yikes, hope that doesn't end up coming further north than anyone anticipated. I am fine with it moving down through Eugene.

Its definitely an interesting feature to keep and eye on.  With lightning strikes and the location, I think I may have a shot at snow later today.  At least a better shot than yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Quite a surprise for you to have less than so many others, but you'll make up for it before the year is over.

 

I am fine either way.   I like just watching it happen all around me and everyone else having fun... but then I don't have to deal with it.     Particularly outside of the November- January time frame.

 

I do have to deal with kids begging for snow though.  

[Jesse]

Its definitely an interesting feature to keep and eye on. With lightning strikes and the location, I think I may have a shot at snow later today. At least a better shot than yesterday.

I agree that you have a better shot today. As long as the low itself stays south of Salem I am fine with the precip shield speeding as far north as it wants.

[GHweatherChris]

Was that small rotation off the Columbia in the models? Sat pic all of a sudden looks very interesting.

I didn't see it.

 

It doesn't even show up in the cloud model from the WRF.

[GHweatherChris]

I agree that you have a better shot today. As long as the low itself stays south of Salem I am fine with the precip shield speeding as far north as it wants.

Sounds good to me.  I am only looking for a little bit to appease my thirst for some snow with arctic air.

[GHweatherChris]

I swear the morning shift at the Seattle NWS decided not to look at anything before they wrote the 930 discussion. Boring as hell.  If I were them I would at least talk about the feature spinning just offshore.

[Dadio]

Sounds good to me.  I am only looking for a little bit to appease my thirst for some snow with arctic air.

 

I agree with you. So glad for my skiff of snow this morning. I think most of us are like TT's kids.

I am fine either way.   I like just watching it happen all around me and everyone else having fun... but then I don't have to deal with it.     Particularly outside of the November- January time frame.

 

I do have to deal with kids begging for snow though.  

What kids? All of us on here that don't have enough snow yet?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can smell snow coming this evening.

[GHweatherChris]

I can smell snow coming this evening.

I think so too.  May not be much, but I have a good feeling.

 

Just need some movement north and some lift.

 

That feature west of the Columbia I think is the key.

[TT-SEA]

I think so too.  May not be much, but I have a good feeling.

 

Just need some movement north and some lift.

 

That feature west of the Columbia I think is the key.

 

 

That feature is what caused the snow tonight and tomorrow on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

GFS and WRF don't show it moving north much at all.   We will find out soon what the 12Z ECMWF says.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Actually the mm5 shows this feature we see on sat loop of the Columbia. The biggest difference I see in real time is it looks to be closer to the coast than the models show. The mm5 shows it curving back out to sea to the nw. But with it closer it looks like it is going to push some moisture our way.

[GHweatherChris]

That feature is what caused the snow tonight and tomorrow on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

GFS and WRF don't show it moving north much at all.   We will find out soon what the 12Z ECMWF says.

Yep, I went back and looked again.

 

I don't think we need it to move north much, just a bit closer and then it can rotate some moisture up hopefully.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS thinks precip will go a bit further north than modeled:

 

"NOT TO IGNORE AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PROFILES ARE ALL SNOW,. THERE IS

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH IS MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED OFFSHORE BUT WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS
THE CLASH OF THE COLD AND MILD PACIFIC AIR COMMENCES AGAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO GET GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN EXPECT BANDING TO OCCUR...LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING."

[GHweatherChris]

Actually the mm5 shows this feature we see on sat loop of the Columbia. The biggest difference I see in real time is it looks to be closer to the coast than the models show. The mm5 shows it curving back out to sea to the nw. But with it closer it looks like it is going to push some moisture our way.

I don't see it pinwheeling back out.  Its been moving ENE fairly steady, just get it close and then it can sit and spin.