February 2014 in the PNW

[brody]

Scott Sistek is not impressed with what is potentially coming this weekend.  Poo Poo's it actually.

It actually takes alot to impress Scott

[The Swamp]

Scott seems like a nice enough guy but he probably has to toe the line at KOMO 4.  My impression of him is that he regurgitates what the NWS Seattle feeds him. Little thinking outside the box.

[Snowman Josh]

I miss Paul deanno and his video blogs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Steve pool would forecast flurries if 2 feet were expected. I swear that channel hates snow.

[Bryant]

I miss Paul deanno and his video blogs.

 

Was just talking to Brennan about that last night. I watched everyone of those KOMO4W's

[brody]

I miss Paul Deanno and his video blogs.

I DONT, I met him once and he was one of the most arrogant and rude people I ever had the displeasure of meeting.

 

And while I'm on this subject, Steve Pool has a  " don't bother me " attitude.

[Bryant]

00z NAM seems to like a more northern focus with the precip, similar to the 6z/12z GFS

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_075_precip_p24.gif

[GHweatherChris]

00z NAM seems to like a more northern focus with the precip, similar to the 6z/12z GFS

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_075_precip_p24.gif

No bueno.

[HighlandExperience]

00z NAM seems to like a more northern focus with the precip, similar to the 6z/12z GFS

 

 

 

Looks similar to the earlier WRF run. 

[Bryant]

No bueno.

 

Have to disagree with you there...

[Bryant]

Looks similar to the earlier WRF run. 

 

Yeah the 00z NAM is pretty similar to the 12z WRF

[GHweatherChris]

The amazing thing about this event is how many potential possibilities that could happen.

 

From just places up north get a little or pounded, or a realistic chance all of Western Washington getting slammed as the low moves south.

 

It will be very fun to track starting Saturday morning as things start to develop.

 

I would say 2 inches here at least, the GFS has consistently shown that the last few days at some point during the event.

[GHweatherChris]

Have to disagree with you there...

Thats fine, I can't play in your backyard.

[Bryant]

Thats fine, I can't play in your backyard.

 

I'm not trying to be that guy who only talks about his backyard, just been a frustrating winter that's all. How much have you gotten so far? We saw 2" in December but that has been it.

[The Swamp]

I'm not trying to be that guy who only talks about his backyard, just been a frustrating winter that's all. How much have you gotten so far? We saw 2" in December but that has been it.

If that map you posted comes to pass then most places north of Seattle will be right on the edge for snow.  Central and South Sounders will have to sit this one out.

 

By the way, when are we going to hear from Tim so he can tell us if it does snow, it'll all be gone the next day anyways with warm rain?  

 

Hopefully he focuses on his trip to Hawaii and stays away.

[brody]

 

 

By the way, when are we going to hear from Tim so he can tell us if it does snow, it'll all be gone the next day anyways with warm rain?  

 

 

Sunshine dude, snow melts in direct sunlight

 

LMAO

[GHweatherChris]

I'm not trying to be that guy who only talks about his backyard, just been a frustrating winter that's all. How much have you gotten so far? We saw 2" in December but that has been it.

I was just joking with you, I really wanna see all of Western Washington get slammed at the same time, that would be awesome.

 

I saw 2 1/4" total in December, but not at the same time it was 1 inch, melted, 1/2 inch, melted and 3/4 inch melted.

 

But, I did see 3.5 two weeks ago.

 

So 5.75 inches total.  Not horrible, but alot less than the last few years dating back to 2008.

[GHweatherChris]

If that map you posted comes to pass then most places north of Seattle will be right on the edge for snow.  Central and South Sounders will have to sit this one out.

 

By the way, when are we going to hear from Tim so he can tell us if it does snow, it'll all be gone the next day anyways with warm rain?  

 

Hopefully he focuses on his trip to Hawaii and stays away.

Nah, he will just say how he is happy he missed this so he can come home to possible decent weather.  I bet his kids will be pissed if his house got a foot of snow they could play in, although, he would say they would rather be in Hawaii, but in reality he trains them to think like him like little Tim Bots.

[snow_wizard]

Going to be an interesting one to watch. I'm not really feeling it for my area, but this is highly uncertain. At this point Bellingham would have to have monumental bad luck to not get at least a couple of inches.

 

BTW I don't think the far north precip area being shown on the NAM will verify. It should extend considerably further south.

[HighlandExperience]

Going to be an interesting one to watch. I'm not really feeling it for my area, but this is highly uncertain. At this point Bellingham would have to have monumental bad luck to not get at least a couple of inches.

 

BTW I don't think the far north precip area being shown on the NAM will verify. It should extend considerably further south.

 

why the doubts? 

[Parksvillewx]

Can't wait for the WRF tonight. I'd love to see the Euro jump onboard more too.  Im hoping the WRF doesn't change much since I was in the 10"+ area for snow.

[snow maniac]

Not getting excited about the potential snow, if its coming from the NW I am directly in the rain shadow when weather comes from the NW. 

[Bryant]

Can't wait for the WRF tonight. I'd love to see the Euro jump onboard more too.  Im hoping the WRF doesn't change much since I was in the 10"+ area for snow.

 

The 18z was considerably worse for your neck of the woods, as well as mine. The more northern track definitely benefits us both

[snow_wizard]

why the doubts?

I'm just afraid we won't maintain enough offshore flow to pull off snow Saturday night. If the 18z GFS is correct we may get some snow due to evaporative cooling with the generous amounts of moisture being shown. It's going to be a close call no matter how you slice it. It is even possible we could have rain Saturday night and then switch to snow on Sunday or Sunday evening as the surface low slides down the coast.

[Bryant]

Going to be an interesting one to watch. I'm not really feeling it for my area, but this is highly uncertain. At this point Bellingham would have to have monumental bad luck to not get at least a couple of inches.

 

BTW I don't think the far north precip area being shown on the NAM will verify. It should extend considerably further south.

 

It's definitely a very fragile pattern... I'm sure there will be model flips til the event happens

[snow_wizard]

Not getting excited about the potential snow, if its coming from the NW and I am directly in the rain shadow when weather comes from the NW.

This is kind of an odd situation. Shadows may not be as pronounced as you would normally expect.

[snow_wizard]

I was just joking with you, I really wanna see all of Western Washington get slammed at the same time, that would be awesome.

 

I saw 2 1/4" total in December, but not at the same time it was 1 inch, melted, 1/2 inch, melted and 3/4 inch melted.

 

But, I did see 3.5 two weeks ago.

 

So 5.75 inches total.  Not horrible, but alot less than the last few years dating back to 2008.

Did you get anything last winter? I'm pretty sure everyone bombed out on that one. I came up with an inch and I was lucky.

[GHweatherChris]

Did you get anything last winter? I'm pretty sure everyone bombed out on that one. I came up with an inch and I was lucky.

Yeah, 6ish total.

 

Biggest total was Christmas Day 2012 winter with 3 plus inches. Which was awesome.

[epiceast]

00z GFS solid so far. Not as great as 18z but still seems to give a proper snowfall to central sounders.

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS solid so far. Not as great as 18z but still seems to give a proper snowfall to central sounders.

I do not live in Central Sound, so does not look good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not getting excited about the potential snow, if its coming from the NW I am directly in the rain shadow when weather comes from the NW. 

Not when there is a low. Your thinking of onshore flow. This is different youngster.

[epiceast]

hour 54 didn't update, but hour 60 is a snowstorm for Tacoma & Olympia. It seems to reload & reload & reload after that... But I wouldn't trust the GFS at that range yet.

[epiceast]

This has been bugging me for while, does anyone know why GFS doesn't update in a progressive fashion? It seems to jump through certain hours.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

hour 54 didn't update, but hour 60 is a snowstorm for Tacoma & Olympia. It seems to reload & reload & reload after that... But I wouldn't trust the GFS at that range yet.

Yeah its looking good. Still snow at hr 72.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Zooming in it looks like the low will travel right through Olympia.

[epiceast]

Yeah its looking good. Still snow at hr 72.

According to new GFS precip type chart south sound is rain at hour 90, there is a bit of ice at the coast and hour 96 is where we torch

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_090_precip_p60.gifThis should be mostly snow form Seattle and to the north..

[HighlandExperience]

Zooming in it looks like the low will travel right through Olympia.

 

Looks like Pierce County will be the dividing line between snow and rain. It will be close. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There is a chance of a 24hr period of snow fall.

[brody]

There is a chance of a 24hr period of snow fall.

That would be nice

[GHweatherChris]

hour 54 didn't update, but hour 60 is a snowstorm for Tacoma & Olympia. It seems to reload & reload & reload after that... But I wouldn't trust the GFS at that range yet.

Sometimes I think you do not know how to read the models.