February 2014 in the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

Marked difference between the 12km and 4km WRF snow totals

 

Peeps in Canada won't like the 12KM as much. Probably overdoing the outflow, but who knows. 

 

Edit: Personally I hope the WRF is right, because more people would get snow. It is a bit more stigny for northern areas though compared to the Canadian.   

[Bryant]

Peeps in Canada won't like the 12KM as much. Probably overdoing the outflow, but who knows. 

 

Edit: Personally I hope the WRF is right, because more people would get snow. It is a bit more stigny for northern areas though compared to the Canadian.   

 

You mean more people that already have more snow than those of us up north? Yeah...

[seattleweatherguy]

well the ecwf is running according to scott sistex

[brody]

well the ecwf is running according to scott sistek*

[westcoastexpat]

Sorry for asking again but any changes for tmrw and Sunday for Vancouver BC ?

 

GFS buckled toward the GEM. GEM drops about 7-10" for Vancouver. I think 6-8" for most of Vancouver with up to 10" for higher terrain is a decent bet at this stage. GFS is out to lunch this winter once again.

[brody]

EURO is a "bit" snowier but not coming around to the GFS at all 

[HighlandExperience]

GFS buckled toward the GEM. GEM drops about 7-10" for Vancouver. I think 6-8" for most of Vancouver with up to 10" for higher terrain is a decent bet at this stage. GFS is out to lunch this winter once again.

 

Will see what happens. I'm not presuming anything at this point.

[Weather101]

GFS buckled toward the GEM. GEM drops about 7-10" for Vancouver. I think 6-8" for most of Vancouver with up to 10" for higher terrain is a decent bet at this stage. GFS is out to lunch this winter once again.

Wow that's Even better... EC shows only 2-3 inches and no warning...

[westcoastexpat]

Will see what happens. I'm not presuming anything at this point.

 

How can you not? When one model has been an outlier for quite awhile and starts blinking toward the other 2 less than 24 hours out, you have to start presuming. 

[westcoastexpat]

Wow that's Even better... EC shows only 2-3 inches and no warning...

 

EC is about to get slaughtered (again).

[Weather101]

EC is about to get slaughtered (again).

7-10" is a lot... The public has no idea... How much more can we get Sunday? This can be huge... Thanks for all the updates ! Great posts you make on this forum

[HighlandExperience]

How can you not? When one model has been an outlier for quite awhile and starts blinking toward the other 2 less than 24 hours out, you have to start presuming. 

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago that no one was going to see snow? 

[westcoastexpat]

7-10" is a lot... The public has no idea... How much more can we get Sunday? This can be huge... Thanks for all the updates ! Great posts you make on this forum

 

I'd say most of Vancouver can anticipate 2" Saturday, 1-2" Saturday night, 3-4" Sunday, and 1-2" Sunday night.

 

WxBell maps show 10-14" for Vancouver but this includes any wintery precip (sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain/snow mix) which may occur at some points, dampening accumulations, so I think 7-10" is a reasonable call if the GEM is right.

 

Realistically I think Bellingham, Hood Canal, Southern and EasternVancouver Island, and Vancouver can all expect at least 6-12" of snow come Monday.

[westcoastexpat]

Weren't you just saying a few days ago that no one was going to see snow? 

 

I think you're confusing me with someone else. I've always liked the chances for Bellingham and Vancouver with this. I've poo-poo'd the GFS (to some people's discontent) pretty hard.

[Bryant]

EURO is a "bit" snowier but not coming around to the GFS at all 

Here ya go...

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/2zhkwzo.png

[westcoastexpat]

Here ya go...

 

 

Euro's dry bias and GEM's precip-heavy bias coming into play.

 

Take a hybrid of the two and you've got a decent forecast if you ask me.

 

Both have nailed the transition zone for precip types.

[Skagit Weather]

Here ya go...

 

 

That is the first time the Euro has shown more than 2" at my location. Between this and the GEM on which I get buried, I am cautiously optimistic about my snow chances. Hopefully this will make up for the rest of the winter!

[brody]

Here ya go...

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/2zhkwzo.png

Uhhhh, sure you posted the right map?

 

WxBell has WAY less than this map 

[Bryant]

Euro's dry bias and GEM's precip-heavy bias coming into play.

 

Take a hybrid of the two and you've got a decent forecast if you ask me.

 

Both have nailed the transition zone for precip types.

 

If we take a blend... about 10" seems close. Curious to see if the GFS blinks before the even starts or not

 

That is the first time the Euro has shown more than 2" at my location. Between this and the GEM on which I get buried, I am cautiously optimistic about my snow chances. Hopefully this will make up for the rest of the winter!

 

We deserve some redemption... hoping this works out as advertised on the Euro/Gem

[seattleweatherguy]

sistek thinks everett is the snow rain line....

[Bryant]

Uhhhh, sure you posted the right map?

 

WxBell has WAY less than this map 

 

Yup... you might be looking at the 6 hour totals? Go here if this isn't where you go typically... http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_region.php

 

Under CONUS METRO N-Z, select Seattle, then choose Total Snowfall

[westcoastexpat]

GEM has been fantastic this winter out east, and the Euro has recently started doing quite well after a horribly inconsistent winter.

The GFS has been a massive outlier the entire winter.

 

I'm feeling good for my home town. Pumped for this thing to get going! It would be nice if Seattle got in on the goods too, as they have been whiffed most of this winter in terms of snow also, but it's just been so long for northern areas that I'm just too excited.

[Weather101]

I'd say most of Vancouver can anticipate 2" Saturday, 1-2" Saturday night, 3-4" Sunday, and 1-2" Sunday night.

 

WxBell maps show 10-14" for Vancouver but this includes any wintery precip (sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain/snow mix) which may occur at some points, dampening accumulations, so I think 7-10" is a reasonable call if the GEM is right.

 

Realistically I think Bellingham, Hood Canal, Southern and EasternVancouver Island, and Vancouver can all expect at least 6-12" of snow come Monday.

Thank you for all this

[seattleweatherguy]

GEM has been fantastic this winter out east, and the Euro has recently started doing quite well after a horribly inconsistent winter.

The GFS has been a massive outlier the entire winter.

 

I'm feeling good for my home town. Pumped for this thing to get going! It would be nice if Seattle got in on the goods too, as they have been whiffed most of this winter in terms of snow also, but it's just been so long for northern areas that I'm just too excited.

In your expert opinion does bothell which is north of seattle and or seattle itself get any snow? (go with your gut)

[brody]

In your expert opinion does bothell which is north of seattle and or seattle itself get any snow? (go with your gut)

Easy answer?

 

NOPE

[westcoastexpat]

Thank you for all this

 

Of course, there is never 100% assurance.

 

Things that can go wrong:

 

1) The GFS is right about the strength of the outflow and moisture gets cut down; it will not, however, be absolutely nothing as the GFS advertises, but the outflow could cut Sunday totals in half

 

2) Offshore flow is too weak to keep temperatures cool enough for snow; however, after snowfall on Saturday being pretty much a lock, the snow cover is going to help keep temperatures cool at the surface, so I really think Sunday could be a big surprise for the forecasters.

[westcoastexpat]

In your expert opinion does bothell which is north of seattle and or seattle itself get any snow? (go with your gut)

 

I think higher elevations as mentioned by a couple posters could certainly see up to 2-3" of wet snow. Honestly though, I'm not expecting Seattle itself to see much if anything. Maybe 1-2" of slurpee slop if thermals pan out, but not pure white stuff in my opinion.

[Weather101]

Of course, there is never 100% assurance.

 

Things that can go wrong:

 

1) The GFS is right about the strength of the outflow and moisture gets cut down; it will not, however, be absolutely nothing as the GFS advertises, but the outflow could cut Sunday totals in half

 

2) Offshore flow is too weak to keep temperatures cool enough for snow; however, after snowfall on Saturday being pretty much a lock, the snow cover is going to help keep temperatures cool at the surface, so I really think Sunday could be a big surprise for the forecasters.

I'm hoping Sunday it comes through so we can have a 2 day snowfall not a one and done! If it can and till Sunday night that would be amazing!

[seattleweatherguy]

I think higher elevations as mentioned by a couple posters could certainly see up to 2-3" of wet snow. Honestly though, I'm not expecting Seattle itself to see much if anything. Maybe 1-2" of slurpee slop if thermals pan out, but not pure white stuff in my opinion.

423 should be at least close enough to get something white! Otherwise I drive up another hill where its 500 feet.

[Phil]

Can we stop the unsubstantiated model-trashing? Model biases reflect tendencies on a macro-statistical scale, and do not apply in every circumstance.

 

Just because a model scores high in the broad 500mb correlation doesn't mean s**t at the mesoscale level.

 

By far the most inaccurate, crap-loaded model disco I've ever read.

[Skagit Weather]

Hmmm...The NWS continues to reduce snowfall forecasts up here. They have taken snow out of the forecast here for tonight and tomorrow. I don't know what they are seeing, because every model shows snow here tomorrow morning.

[Skagit Weather]

Partly cloudy and 32/29 here so as of right now it is cold enough.

[epiceast]

925mb cold pool is definitely pushing south. 850mb temps are stable.

[Utrex]

Lol, KMartin switched his servers from GoDaddy because that Joseph Rockefeller dude tried to hack theweatherspace, but KMartin switched to a stronger server and that Joseph dude deleted his facebook xD

[brody]

Lol, KMartin switched his servers from GoDaddy because that Joseph Rockefeller dude tried to hack theweatherspace, but KMartin switched to a stronger server and that Joseph dude deleted his facebook xD

Dude, we are discussing how much snow Seattle ISNT going to get, we cant be bothered with that  

[Utrex]

Dude, we are discussing how much snow Seattle ISNT going to get, we cant be bothered with that s**t

 

Lol well no need to get pissed off at me.

[Jesse]

Can we stop the unsubstantiated model-trashing? Model biases reflect tendencies on a macro-statistical scale, and do not apply in every circumstance.

 

Just because a model scores high in the broad 500mb correlation doesn't mean s**t at the mesoscale level.

 

By far the most inaccurate, crap-loaded model disco I've ever read.

The level of discourse has been atrocious tonight. I've just been steering clear. If you can't say anything nice...

[Utrex]

Current forecasts say showers for Seattle, but looking at the model analysis it looks like there will be snow / snow showers persisting throughout the night into saturday noon. By noon it looks for some showers, with a slight chance of snowflakes embedded in the rain showers.

[luvssnow_spokane]

32 and crystal clear here tonight...

[brody]

Lol well no need to get pissed off at me.

Im not pissed off at you just that we dont need hear anything about that "guy"