February 2014 in the PNW

[brody]

18 Hours Later on Sunday 7am the system is still out there and has barely moved, WOW! Still all Snow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_177_1000_500_thick.gif

Wowee

[Deweydog]

How did PDX hit 51 after 4pm today?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diurnal_temperature_variation

 

[Tyler Mode]

I call it radiational cooling.  Spokane was near 0 on Saturday morning with clear skies and snow cover.  A lot of the upper basin already has snow cover which would only help deliver some even colder air our way

WRF looks about right for 925mb temps -6c currently and TTD-DLS gradient... so it's initialized correctly.. but 14 in Omak seems pretty cold already.

[Jesse]

06z operational is an outlier. The ensembles are much colder.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM is not exactly dry even on Tuesday afternoon:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif

[Brennan]

Good Morning Weather Nerds. Happy SuperBowl Sunday! It’s been **.3*F and cloudy all night... 

 

Does anyone else wish the energy next weekend in the Yukon would drop south instead of WSW?   I can dream...

[brody]

Good Morning Weather Nerds. Happy SuperBowl Sunday! It’s been **.3*F and cloudy all night... 

 

Does anyone else wish the energy next weekend in the Yukon would drop south instead of WSW?   I can dream...

The Lombardi Trophy finally comes home to Seattle tonight

 

And 

 

Yes 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Keeping my fingers crossed as that trough slides south down the coast and out of Canada today we can pick up more showers than expected and maybe get some surprise snow. Never hurts to dream a little. Go Hawks!

[Dadio]

Surprised there is so little action on here this morning. I can't imagine a game  being more interesting than the weather we have coming up.

[Guest Winterdog]

The 12Z is definitely colder than the 6Z up through 96 hours. Still showing moisture later tonight too for some areas.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Surprised there is so little action on here this morning. I can't imagine a game  being more interesting than the weather we have coming up.

lol, really?! Maybe everyone is at church praying for snow then.

[Brennan]

12z is insanely cold.. Brutal. Yes tim, brutally cold. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 12Z is definitely colder than the 6Z up through 96 hours. Still showing moisture later tonight too for some areas.

I have to admit it will be fun to watch things develop tonight. Maybe these showers from this will be stronger than expected. . Be nice to see a nice boundary line of snow set up on the front as it pushes south today. I will admit that QPF for this does not look great but I am up for a miracle. Could make for interesting weather after the game.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX bottoms out around 509 thickness on the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think our upcoming weather is way more interesting than the Broncos game today. I am going to be making stops at several Big Game parties out of social obligation however.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 144 the overrunning system looks to be a lot further north. Not ideal.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 12z does want to keep us colder a bit longer. D**n I can only dream that we do not warm up after the (potential) snow this weekend!

[luvssnow_spokane]

At hour 144 the overrunning system looks to be a lot furtheralso . Not ideal.

It also appears to be further west. So many details! --- ultimately it looks to head right into central Canada. Quick warm up here.

[Dadio]

The air not to far past Hope, BC is really cold. It's good to see some wind moving east out of the Fraser Canyon. It isn't really out flow, but it is good to see some of that cold air filtering in. Hoping to get some snow on the ground before it gets cold and dry.

[Guest Monty67]

Keeping my fingers crossed as that trough slides south down the coast and out of Canada today we can pick up more showers than expected and maybe get some surprise snow. Never hurts to dream a little. Go Hawks!

There are some radar returns showing up over southern Vancouver island this morning. Although, I'm not convinced anything is reaching the surface. Likely too warm for sticking snow today anyways.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There are some radar returns showing up over southern Vancouver island this morning. Although, I'm not convinced anything is reaching the surface. Likely too warm for sticking snow today anyways.

I was seeing the same thing, along with radar returns off coast heading west. It would be a bit to warm. The key is having any precip left by the time the colder air arrives tonight. Going to be fun to watch!!

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous morning!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drizzle and 33 here. The low was 28 last night before it clouded back up. Upper level isn't cold enough to support snow here until later this evening.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS slows it way down next weekend.    Saturday is mostly dry and the cold air is still in place on Sunday morning.   

[50shadesofvan]

Nothing to see here, nothing to see...

 

EDIT: Cold snap broke WeatherBell. Domain min: -61.4?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS MUCH colder run. Coldest GFS run I believe yet. Thickness looks to get down to 508-509, 850mb -15c for Portland. Snow arrives HR 156-165. QPF does look a tad lighter, but that could change the next run too. I like it.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS MUCH colder run. Coldest GFS run I believe yet. Thickness looks to get down to 508-509, 850mb -15c for Portland. Snow arrives HR 156-165. QPF does look a tad lighter, but that could change the next run too. I like it.

 

Lighter precip is better... less of a push of warm air.    

 

GFS is snowy on Sunday now... rather than Saturday.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The overrunning system on the 12z GFS seems to split. Much lighter precip, especially for Oregon, but I'm not sure if it would even scour out the low level cold in the valley. It definitely wouldn't in the gorge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Modified arctic air in late March on the CFS...

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_219HR.gif

[50shadesofvan]

Just appreciate how far the -10 850 isotherm goes out into the Pacific. Pretty historic for February. 12Z WRF model should be pretty chilly. 

[Dadio]

Gorgeous morning!

 

 

Nice as always. I need a large wall monitor showing the views at a number of locations around the area, such as yours. hopefully everyone will have the views of snow by Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE bottoms out with -14C 850mb temps and 511 thickness, essentially the same as the December 2013 blast. I believe SLE bottomed out at -14.1C with the 12z sounding on December 7th.

[Guest Monty67]

12Z GFS slows it way down next weekend. Saturday is mostly dry and the cold air is still in place on Sunday morning.

I am not sure that slowing the overrunning event down is a good thing, at least for those of us wanting a big dump of snow at the end of this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think PDX's record min max of 38 is going to fall on Saturday.

[Jesse]

Modified arctic air in late March on the CFS...

 

 

It seems like chilly Februaries and Marches often come in pairs.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian not updating.    I really want to see what it shows at 144 hours.    

[Dadio]

It seems like chilly Februaries and Marches often come in pairs.

It doesn't seem that way in recent years. Not at least cold in early February and then cold again in March. Late February and March have been cold often in the last years.

[Jesse]

It doesn't seem that way in recent years. Not at least cold in early February and then cold again in March. Late February and March have been cold often in the last years.

 

I never really specified what part of February. Just Februaries that are cold overall.

 

1989 and 1956 are two obvious examples that come to mind.

 

2009 and 2011 are two more recent examples.

[Jesse]

Looks like SLE bottoms out with -14C 850mb temps and 511 thickness, essentially the same as the December 2013 blast. I believe SLE bottomed out at -14.1C with the 12z sounding on December 7th.

 

Really nice to see the GFS OP trending colder in the home stretch.

 

I bet the ensembles are colder yet.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian updated... here is 144 hours.    Not sure what to make of this run.    Looks like the overrunning event is greatly delayed or pushed south which keeps the cold air in place longer.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg