DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 It looked like it was close to going neg tilt this run. Def baby steps in the right direction. Let's see if the other models follow suit. GFS has always been the farthest NW so far, and that's interesting. It's usually the most suppressed model. And it stuck it's guns to previous run but stronger. Your not thinking this could be a 2 footer for someone r you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't know about you guys but I am pretty stunned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't know about you guys but I am pretty stunned.About what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't know about you guys but I am pretty stunned.Positively? ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Positively? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 About what? Well I don't think will ever see something like this again here..All snow we had already and the 6-10 tonight and 12+ Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well I don't think will ever see something like this again here..All snow we had already and the 6-10 tonight and 12+ Tuesday.You got it locked in ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 You got it locked in ??? Not at all with Tuesday storm yet but man very widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not at all with Tuesday storm yet but man very widespread.ha yep GGEM widespread to. Just SE of the GFS, If I had to pick a spot I would pick chicago for this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well I don't think will ever see something like this again here..All snow we had already and the 6-10 tonight and 12+ Tuesday.I thought you were talking about the storm next week possibly being more favorable for us. That isn't surprising at all. But, what you're talking about, that is simply amazing. You guys are very lucky over there, it's pretty awesome. I'm doing just fine this winter, so I am happy as well. I remember back in 07-08, when we broke the record, had like 76".. Just seemed like it was snowing all the time, and several inches. Had a 15" storm, biggest so far of my life, one of the biggest in Dubuque history. And you guys may even get more than what I got that year. It's truly amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 ha yep GGEM widespread to. Just SE of the GFS, If I had to pick a spot I would pick chicago for this one as well.Seems like a safe bet with that high pressure up north preventing it from going too far NW. Chicago definitely sits good with this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Very fascinating back to back runs on the GFS. Am I surprised??? Not at all...I'd like to see the GGEM/EURO come on board to a NW shift and better phasing. GFS is definitely coming back to what it was showing long range as we get closer. Now we are about 96hours from the start of the storm and we will begin to see models getting better data. There may still be some model flip flopping but a general idea of the storms magnitude is coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just a quick glance at the 12z model suite, if this puppy can phase and/or become a negative tilt then lookout as this could become a monster of a storm. Not that it's a meager storm by any means but just look at the potential this storm has and the big plus is the WIDE OPEN GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking pretty good for most. GFS seems to really favor the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Obviously the strength and position of the high and confluence in canada as well as degree of phasing along with strength of the SE ridge will determine the final track. Lots of players on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I thought you were talking about the storm next week possibly being more favorable for us. That isn't surprising at all. But, what you're talking about, that is simply amazing. You guys are very lucky over there, it's pretty awesome. I'm doing just fine this winter, so I am happy as well. I remember back in 07-08, when we broke the record, had like 76".. Just seemed like it was snowing all the time, and several inches. Had a 15" storm, biggest so far of my life, one of the biggest in Dubuque history. And you guys may even get more than what I got that year. It's truly amazing! This one tommorow looks very close for you guys but this one should be a biggie for u guys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 ha yep GGEM widespread to. Just SE of the GFS, If I had to pick a spot I would pick chicago for this one as well. GGEM look better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the GGEM is a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS total snowfall is 30 inches or so for Chicago on the run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anyone have a map of GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM still a solid hit for chi town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Defo band isnt as exciting and the ULL is not as far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Indeed, nice run of Chicago still, not so great up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey guys reading your last few post and I need some some clarification did someone mention 30" of snow for Tuesday? I know it's not set in stone yet but is it time to hit the supermarket and stock up on supplies before mass hysteria kicks and all the shelves are bare? That much snow and we could be locked up in our houses for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 "But, what you're talking about, that is simply amazing. You guys are very lucky over there, it's pretty awesome. I'm doing just fine this winter, so I am happy as well. I remember back in 07-08, when we broke the record, had like 76".. Just seemed like it was snowing all the time, and several inches. Had a 15" storm, biggest so far of my life, one of the biggest in Dubuque history. And you guys may even get more than what I got that year. It's truly amazing!" 78.1 ! Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEFS is NW of 6z. The mean brings in .5-.75 QPF for Chicago. .25 - .50 for IA/WI Some images: http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1391188625_thumb.jpg http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1391188630_thumb.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey guys reading your last few post and I need some some clarification did someone mention 30" of snow for Tuesday? I know it's not set in stone yet but is it time to hit the supermarket and stock up on supplies before mass hysteria kicks and all the shelves are bare? That much snow and we could be locked up in our houses for a few days. Yeah I believe it was combined 16 day total snowfall from GFS. 30 inches pretty hard to do here with single storm when you don't have that massive Atlantic right there though it does help throw some in depending how wrapped storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM Snowmap. Pre System: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013112/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_14.png Post system: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013112/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM Snowmap. Pre System: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013112/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_14.png Post system: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013112/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_24.png GGEM not so hot with tommorow and that Post system is that combined or seperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 ukmet is a tad SE of the GFS and a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM not so hot with tommorow and that Post system is that combined or seperate? combined. 10:1 ratios so it would be .9 to 1 QPF or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 with the lake having a nice ice buildup from the frigid temps is the possibility of Lake effect slim for cook county down to northwest indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f114.html GFS ensembles took a pretty big jump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f114.html GFS ensembles took a pretty big jump NW Some of them look sweet. GGEM is showing 10 inches combined both systems. What a big difference with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM Ensembles http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2014013112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_120.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM Ensembles http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2014013112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_120.pngGGEM is just not buying the NW trend whatsoever. I'm getting nervous! Ha we better win out from this or I will quit weather i swear! GFS, please stick to your guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013112/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_18.png Stronger than 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Surprised to see a lot of the GEFS ensembles with a NW trend, normally they have an easterly bias. Let's see what the 12z Euro shows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013112/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_19.png 6 MB stronger and north compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro a tad NW this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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