August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Tyler Mode]

24 days 90+ at PDX, just 15 here in Battle Ground.

There have been a number of days right around the 90 degree mark where they have warmed above, and my station hasn't.  A good example is the last two days.  89 at my house both days, 91 at PDX.

[Jesse]

Ice burn's back!

Does Fall ball hurt your feelings?

[Deweydog]

Does Fall ball hurt your feelings?

I don't think about it as much as you do, apparently. It's a pretty big deal to have to wear a jacket.

[Jesse]

Eh...I'll be heading to Alaska in a few weeks...Guaranteed fall??? I hope so.

 

We went to an abandoned house outside of The Dalles...nice quite place. On the way there, the traffic into Rooster Rock SP was backed up onto the freeway.

 

Here's a pic of that house from back in March while we were aurora watching.

 

 

Why do you upside down quote people?

 

Looks like the farmhouse at Dalles Mountain Ranch State Park.

[Jesse]

I don't think about it as much as you do, apparently. It's a pretty big deal to have to wear a jacket.

It's a catchy phrase that rhymes and perfectly captures your love of warm falls. I just think it's fun to use.

 

I can stop if it bothers you.

[Deweydog]

It's a catchy phrase that rhymes and perfectly captures your love of warm falls. I just think it's fun to use.

 

I can stop if it bothers you.

Warm falls are like coming up to 117th and Fourth Plain and making it through on a stale green. Pretty nice when it happens but what the **** ever...

 

I can stop them if it bothers you.

[BLI snowman]

Days are getting cooler from here on out. And the shortened day length usually becomes noticeable around late August.

 

Enjoy the descent into another mild, disappointing season!

[BLI snowman]

Pretty close to a big event around the Holidays that year too.  A lot of heavy wet snow fell on parts of SW BC but most of the arctic air was held just east of the coast. 

 

The January event was followed by a pretty impressive rain train, I imagine some pretty major flooding resulted. 

 

Yeah, some wet snow there and in March 1935 in spots. The January 1935 event was like January 2012 on some colder-climate steroids. Massive flood on the Nooksack River.with that.

[Jesse]

Warm falls are like coming up to 117th and Fourth Plain and making it through on a stale green. Pretty nice when it happens but what the **** ever...

 

I can stop them if it bothers you.

Are cool falls pretty nice when they happen?

[Jesse]

Hoping we can get in on some convection later this evening.

 

It would be a shame to endure the awful pattern of the last several days without anything to show for it.

[Deweydog]

Are cool falls pretty nice when they happen?

What the **** ever...

 

Winter's colder.

[Jesse]

What the **** ever...

 

Winter's colder.

Hey, you like Fall ball and I like crisp, sunny afternoons, foggy, chilly mornings and brilliant, changing leaves. We can have different views on Autumn and still be friends.

[Front Ranger]

Hoping we can get in on some convection later this evening.

 

It would be a shame to endure the awful pattern of the last several days without anything to show for it.

 

Has PDX's 90+ co-record already been forgotten??

[Deweydog]

Hey, you like Fall ball and I like crisp, sunny afternoons, foggy, chilly mornings and brilliant, changing leaves. We can have different views on Autumn and still be friends.

 

[Tyler Mode]

81 @ 6:45 PM vs 88 last night, nice cooling breeze blowing

[Deweydog]

Looking a little better now for the Willamette Valley scoring some convective precip tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Radar's blowing up!

[Front Ranger]

Radar's blowing up!

 

Epic fail! I cede Mark back his job.

 

Not really looking like there will be much chance of anything until tomorrow AM...and even that's iffy. That marine push didn't spark .

[FroYoBro]

Epic fail! I cede Mark back his job.

 

Not really looking like there will be much chance of anything until tomorrow AM...and even that's iffy. That marine push didn't spark s**t.

[BLI snowman]

Epic fail! I cede Mark back his job.

 

Not really looking like there will be much chance of anything until tomorrow AM...and even that's iffy. That marine push didn't spark s**t.

 

It wasn't ever going to rain until 3am or so west of the Cascades. Pay attention.

[Deweydog]

Epic fail! I cede Mark back his job.

 

Not really looking like there will be much chance of anything until tomorrow AM...and even that's iffy. That marine push didn't spark s**t.

Marine push in the mid levels hasn't really started yet. There was never any realistic chance of anything surface-based today.

[Front Ranger]

Marine push in the mid levels hasn't really started yet. There was never any realistic chance of anything surface-based today.

 

Hind sight is never, ever wrong.

 

And you might recall, I agreed with you last night that chances would not be surface-based.

[Front Ranger]

Marine push in the mid levels hasn't really started yet. There was never any realistic chance of anything surface-based today.

 

Sure it has. Look to the south.

[Deweydog]

Hind sight is never, ever wrong.

 

And you might recall, I agreed with you last night that chances would not be surface-based.

You were thinking this afternoon/evening. There was no support for anything surface based or elevated. The elevated threat was mainly for late tonight/tomorrow morning as the trough opens up.

[Front Ranger]

It wasn't ever going to rain until 3am or so west of the Cascades. Pay attention.

 

When did the models zero in on the showers/t-storms that it the Tacoma/Seattle area yesterday?

 

Not sure hardly anyone will be seeing rain at 3 am, aside from spots on the coast.

[Front Ranger]

You were thinking this afternoon/evening. There was no support for anything surface based or elevated. The elevated threat was mainly for late tonight/tomorrow morning as the trough opens up.

 

Yup, which is why I ceded Mark back his job. Was thinking this thing might have pushed inland a bit faster.

 

You're thinking about this way too much. Maybe you took my claim to victory yesterday seriously. Neither one of our short term calls is looking good...you're already pushing yours back.

[Deweydog]

Yup, which is why I ceded Mark back his job. Was thinking this thing might have pushed inland a bit faster.

 

You're thinking about this way too much. Maybe you took my claim to victory yesterday seriously. Neither one of our short term calls is looking good...you're already pushing yours back.

Marine pushes don't act as a surface based trigger. It's mid level interaction in an elevated situation where they typically serve to enhance lift.

[BLI snowman]

When did the models zero in on the showers/t-storms that it the Tacoma/Seattle area yesterday?

 

Not sure hardly anyone will be seeing rain at 3 am, aside from spots on the coast.

 

Those were pretty isolated yesterday but a few model runs did show a threat for the SW WA coast on Thursday morning. Not so much for the Central Sound.

 

The models have been insistent for awhile that our precip threat with the trough begins early tomorrow morning as opposed to this evening or early tonight. Literally nothing has indicated that pre-midnight convection was a remote likelihood anywhere west of the mountains today. 

[Front Ranger]

Marine pushes don't act as a surface based trigger. It's mid level interaction in an elevated situation where they typically serve to enhance lift.

 

Not sure why you're stuck on this? I never claimed any surface-based trigger. I think you just assumed that because of the timing I threw out there. 

 

I even agreed with your post about the possible trigger last night (mid level marine push) and yet you keep coming back to this surface thing. Weird.

[Front Ranger]

Those were pretty isolated yesterday but a few model runs did show a threat for the SW WA coast on Thursday morning. Not so much for the Central Sound.

 

The models have been insistent for awhile that our precip threat with the trough begins early tomorrow morning as opposed to this evening or early tonight. Literally nothing has indicated that pre-midnight convection was a remote likelihood anywhere west of the mountains today.

 

Nah, there were some signs it was possible, which is why the NWS put the possibility in there for this evening yesterday. But like I said, this thing is sluggish and now it looks like even early AM rains are unlikely most places.

[Deweydog]

Not sure why you're stuck on this? I never claimed any surface-based trigger. I think you just assumed that because of the timing I threw out there.

 

Again, you're thinking about this a bit too much. Trying hard to prove something, I guess.

Just not sure what you were looking at if you didn't think the convection this afternoon was going to be surfaced based? Not a whole lot to think about here...

[Front Ranger]

Just not sure what you were looking at if you didn't think the convection this afternoon was going to be surfaced based? Not a whole lot to think about here...

 

Good lord...I already answered this. Thought it might push inland a bit earlier. But like I said, timing would be tricky. Turns out things are moving quite slow.

[Jesse]

Good lord...I already answered this. Thought it might push inland a bit earlier. But like I said, timing would be tricky. Turns out things are moving quite slow.

I think things are moving right about at their scheduled pace.

 

You were just wrong.

[Deweydog]

Good lord...I already answered this. Thought it might push inland a bit earlier. But like I said, timing would be tricky. Turns out things are moving quite slow.

A surface marine push, which was pretty traditional this evening, isn't going to erode what was a very strong cap today. We couldn't even get anything to fire (except for actual fires) over the high terrain today because of it. In an elevated scenario the push can act as a point of focus as it creates some frontal-esque lift when the mid levels are juicy.

 

I know it's complicated but at least it's not as convoluted as clouds and how they may cause temperature forecasts to go awry.

[Front Ranger]

I think things are moving right about at their scheduled pace.

 

You were just wrong.

 

 

Sure, I was wrong. How many times do I have to say it? I threw out a possibility, didn't happen.

 

Dewey threw out the possibility of elevated convection tonight. That could end up wrong too, or something may happen. No big deal.

[Front Ranger]

A surface marine push, which was pretty traditional this evening, isn't going to erode what was a very strong cap today. We couldn't even get anything to fire (except for actual fires) over the high terrain today because of it. In an elevated scenario the push can act as a point of focus as it creates some frontal-esque lift when the mid levels are juicy.

 

Yup. You're reading what you want to read. I agreed with this all along, and never claimed any surface-based trigger.

 

We've been on the same page all along with the trigger, but you keep wanting to paint some sort of strange, fictional divide in our thinking. Again...a bit odd.

[BLI snowman]

Nah, there were some signs it was possible, which is why the NWS put the possibility in there for this evening yesterday. But like I said, this thing is sluggish and now it looks like even early AM rains are unlikely most places.

 

Can you find me a recent model run that showed any convection over the valleys this evening? Even the overly optimistic MM5 runs have held off precip until midnight at the earliest these past few days. 

 

Not sure tomorrow will offer anything grand, as surface based instability will be hard to come by. But there should be plenty of showers around and small pockets here and there of >0.50" totals looks likely. 

[Deweydog]

Yup. You're reading what you want to read. I agreed with this all along, and never claimed any surface-based trigger.

 

We've been on the same page all along with the trigger, but you keep wanting to paint some sort of strange, fictional divide in our thinking. Again...a bit odd.

To think a deep marine push during peak heating, which is super unlikely without decent SW flow at 700mb to begin with, and such a strong cap in place would trigger elevated convection in the valleys just doesn't make any sense to me. No biggie...

[Front Ranger]

Can you find me a recent model run that showed any convection over the valleys this evening? Even the overly optimistic MM5 runs have held off precip until midnight at the earliest these past few days. 

 

Not sure tomorrow will offer anything grand, as surface based instability will be hard to come by. But there should be plenty of showers around and small pockets here and there of >0.50" totals looks likely. 

 

Just as a couple runs suggested the possibility of coastal convection yesterday (that ended up inland), a couple suggested southern coastal convection this evening. I don't remember which, and I'm not going to go back and see. Cause I really don't care.

 

Tomorrow should definitely have plenty of showers as the day goes on, obviously more north of Portland as has been the trend with this thing all along. Greater than .50"? Maybe a spot or two...I know the models have been consistent with that deformation band in the central Sound tomorrow evening. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we see less rain than modeled, though.

[Deweydog]

Can you find me a recent model run that showed any convection over the valleys this evening? Even the overly optimistic MM5 runs have held off precip until midnight at the earliest these past few days.

 

Not sure tomorrow will offer anything grand, as surface based instability will be hard to come by. But there should be plenty of showers around and small pockets here and there of >0.50" totals looks likely.

0z seems to have got a little pee-shy.

[Front Ranger]

To think a deep marine push during peak heating, which is super unlikely without decent SW flow at 700mb to begin with, and such a strong cap in place would trigger elevated convection in the valleys just doesn't make any sense to me. No biggie...

 

The only difference in our thinking was I was thinking about 6 hours earlier than you. Late afternoon/evening. 3-10 pmish. You were thinking tonight. Neither one of us was particularly bullish, we just threw out the possibility. Apparently some people really care.

 

Like I said, you were giving this way too much thought.