August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Canadian continues to look intriguing for a nice soaking rain and cool temps for everyone later next week. ECMWF and GFS are actually in remarkable agreement for later next week as well. About time.

 

 

Lots of disagreement on the 12Z GFS ensembles for next week.   Operational appears to be too aggressive... and the 12Z run slowed things down from the 00Z run as well.

 

Way too early to tell... might end up another situation where warm air is pumped northward.

[Jesse]

Canadian continues to look intriguing for a nice soaking rain and cool temps for everyone later next week. ECMWF and GFS are actually in remarkable agreement for later next week as well. About time.

 

Let's not declare victory just yet, but the trends look good. Warmth does have a tendency to pop up out of nowhere the last few years though, even in patterns that are advertised as cool in the mid-long range

[Kayla]

Lots of disagreement on the 12Z GFS ensembles for next week.   Operational appears to be too aggressive... and the 12Z run slowed things down from the 00Z run as well.

 

Way too early to tell... might end up another situation where warm air is pumped northward.

 

Signs are there though and the CPC agrees.

[Kayla]

Let's not declare victory just yet, but the trends look good. Warmth does have a tendency to pop up out of nowhere the last few years though, even in patterns that are advertised as cool in the mid-long range

 

Don't worry, you are not going to jinx the weather.

[Deweydog]

We only post about the Canadian when it is running warmer than the other models.

Way too early to see something that amplified. Full latitude ridge with 590dm heights into southern Alaska? Yeah... no. Smells like a cut off!

[Kayla]

Way too early to see something that amplified. Full latitude ridge with 590dm heights into southern Alaska? Yeah... no. Smells like a cut off!

 

Seems like a typical strong El Nino late summer / early fall signal to me...Although I will say the 12z ECMWF setup seems more realistic.

[Jesse]

Way too early to see something that amplified. Full latitude ridge with 590dm heights into southern Alaska? Yeah... no. Smells like a cut off!

 

A cut-off is fine as long as it doesn't spin offshore all week like the one last week.

 

Anyway, I feel like we have seen deep, full latitude troughing close to this early before. Late August 2008 was a pretty impressive beast that didn't cut off.

[Jesse]

Seems like a typical strong El Nino late summer / early fall signal to me...Although I will say the 12z ECMWF seems setup looks more realistic.

 

What is the 12Z Euro showing?

[GobBluth]

Seems like a typical strong El Nino late summer / early fall signal to me...Although I will say the 12z ECMWF seems setup looks more realistic.

There's a late summer/early fall El Nino signal?

[Jesse]

There's a late summer/early fall El Nino signal?

 

Things tend to become active earlier with more robust Ninos.

[Deweydog]

A cut-off is fine as long as it doesn't spin offshore all week like the one last week.

 

Anyway, I feel like we have seen deep, full latitude troughing close to this early before. Late August 2008 was a pretty impressive beast that didn't cut off.

Sure, full latitude stuff becomes more common about now. Wavelengths are starting to budge. But I challenge you to find a handful of analogs to such a prodigious ridge nosing into Alaska. Not likely.

[Kayla]

What is the 12Z Euro showing?

 

Trough is not as deep as the Canadian and further offshore. 

[TT-SEA]

Way too early to see something that amplified. Full latitude ridge with 590dm heights into southern Alaska? Yeah... no. Smells like a cut off!

 

I am thinking this as well.

[Jesse]

Trough is not as deep as the Canadian and further offshore. 

 

Last night's 00Z was way offshore with the trough, but the ensemble mean had it more centered over us.

[Deweydog]

Trough is not as deep as the Canadian and further offshore.

Euro is further east/progressive.

[Jesse]

Euro is further east/progressive.

 

My guess is that he was looking at the 00Z Euro.

 

That's good news. 

[Jesse]

Sure, full latitude stuff becomes more common about now. Wavelengths are starting to budge. But I challenge you to find a handful of analogs to such a prodigious ridge nosing into Alaska. Not likely.

 

Sure it isn't likely. So was hitting 90 at PDX this summer 26+ days.

[Deweydog]

Sure it isn't likely. So was hitting 90 at PDX this summer 26+ days.

You're comparing apples and apples ravaged by central Washington wildfires.

[Jesse]

You're comparing apples and apples ravaged by central Washington wildfires.

 

I get that those are two very different animals. My point is just because something is meteorologically unlikely doesn't mean it can't/won't happen. Unless it involves cold anomalies. Then it definitely won't happen.

[Deweydog]

I get that those are two very different animals. My point is just because something is meteorologically unlikely doesn't mean it can't/won't happen. Unless it involves cold anomalies. Then it definitely won't happen.

I never said it couldn't happen, just that it won't this time.

[Jesse]

I never said it couldn't happen, just that it won't this time.

Going against dreaded Euro/Canadian combo. Bold.

[Kayla]

Euro is further east/progressive.

 

Looking late at the run you are correct. Way more progressive and not nearly as deep as previous run.

[BLI snowman]

Sure, full latitude stuff becomes more common about now. Wavelengths are starting to budge. But I challenge you to find a handful of analogs to such a prodigious ridge nosing into Alaska. Not likely.

 

1977 and 2004 both were similar. Massive ridging into Alaska (it hit 86 in Kenai on 8/21/1977) while the storm track moved SE into the PNW. It's unlikely, but a possibility. As you know, those were both El Nino years with long warm periods before the bottom fell out in late August.

[TT-SEA]

Looking late at the run you are correct. Way more progressive and not nearly as deep as previous run.

 

 

Yeah... at face value there is very little rain or even chances for rain on the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

Basically a continuation of the pattern this week.   

 

GFS is being way too aggressive.   Mark it down.  

[Kayla]

Yeah... at face value there is very little rain or even chances for rain on the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

Basically a continuation of the pattern this week.   

 

GFS is being way too aggressive.   Mark it down.  

 

ECMWF hasn't had great performance lately so as of right now I'd be inclined to lean more towards the GFS/GEM. But that's just me!

[Jesse]

1977 and 2004 both were similar. Massive ridging into Alaska (it hit 86 in Kenai on 8/21/1977) while the storm track moved SE into the PNW. It's unlikely, but a possibility. As you know, those were both El Nino years with long warm periods before the bottom fell out in late August.

Bottoms falling out in late August are bad news for fall ballers.

[Deweydog]

1977 and 2004 both were similar. Massive ridging into Alaska (it hit 86 in Kenai on 8/21/1977) while the storm track moved SE into the PNW. It's unlikely, but a possibility. As you know, those were both El Nino years with long warm periods before the bottom fell out in late August.

We're not due for another 16 years.

[Deweydog]

Bottoms falling out in late August are bad news for fall ballers.

Careful sensitive boy...

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF hasn't had great performance lately so as of right now I'd be inclined to lean more towards the GFS/GEM. But that's just me!

 

 

OK.

 

Recent example... late last week the GFS and Canadian showed a deep trough digging over the PNW on Monday (yesterday).

 

The ECMWF was the first to show a much more progressive pattern... shoving everything to the east.    That is exactly what happened.    

[Jesse]

Careful sensitive boy...

You really don't like the fall ball stuff do you?

 

All in jest.

[Kayla]

Latest CPC update today is going with the GFS and Euro ensembles.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Kayla]

OK.

 

Recent example... late last week the GFS and Canadian showed a deep trough digging over the PNW on Monday (yesterday).

 

The ECMWF was the first to show a much more progressive pattern... shoving everything to the east.    That is exactly what happened.    

 

I'm just staying that I don't necessarily agree with one run of the operational ECMWF after what it showed last night and considering what the 12z GFS and GEM are showing.

[Jesse]

The trough advertised for this Thursday/Friday certainly hasn't gotten shoved east.

 

The pattern on the 12Z EURO for much of next week looks similar to that, which is perfect. Low humidity, cool to average days, cool nights.

[TT-SEA]

The trough for this Friday has been watered down recently... and might be even less than shown now.   

[BLI snowman]

We're not due for another 16 years.

 

1941 is another one with the bottom falling out while AK saw a huge ridge. We had had a very hot summer that year.

[Jesse]

1941 is another one with the bottom falling out while AK saw a huge ridge. We had had a very hot summer that year.

 

What is downtown's record for 90+ days btw? I've been meaning to ask.

[Deweydog]

You really don't like the fall ball stuff do you?

 

All in jest.

Baseball wishcasts transcend the wishes/needs of cold anomaly enthusiasts. Learn it, know it, live it.

[Jesse]

Baseball wishcasts transcend the wishes/needs of cold anomaly enthusiasts. Learn it, know it, live it.

 

This is more than apparent.

[Deweydog]

This is more than apparent.

All you have to do is look up. Proof in the form of high heights and pleasantology.

 

Good news for you is this is my last year of coaching.

[Deweydog]

Not too often you see Astoria outpacing PDX at noon on a day like this.