Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 did yard work in shorts and t-shirt today. was 58 earlier, now 55 lol 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 49 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Why does every building on this campus have the heat on full blast? I hate it warm with the dp so high. Feels nasty. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Ah well at least we return to more typical La Nina conditions and build the snowpack. The EPS makes that very clear. That's a pretty strong signal it has for week two. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Looks pertty dry after tomorrow. At least on the GFS... we could use a good dose of this right now. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: somehow KGEG still recorded ~50" of snow, technically above normal but yeah it was super warm and nothing stuck around more than a couple days We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow drift said: We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard. I'm learning that Moderate La Nina can be bad here. Seems Neutral or weak La Nina are best. Super Ninas aren't bad either. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Maybe at some point it will be anomalously wet down here. Maybe at some point it will not be anomalously wet up here. Seriously, I hope the moisture track trends south. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Strange fall so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Maybe at some point it will not be anomalously wet up here. Seriously, I hope the moisture track trends south. Same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: I'm learning that Moderate La Nina can be bad here. Seems Neutral or weak La Nina are best. Super Ninas aren't bad either. They're hit or miss. Cold neutral or weak nina and +QBO is usually really good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 .88” so far on the day, 14.93” for the month, and 57.12” for the year. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 The EPS just refuses to get there for the weekend cold snap. The 18z was even a tad further away than the 12z. Ironically that may be favorable for the second attempt to be in a better position though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 49 minutes ago, snow drift said: We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard. Be careful with statements like that. You will eventually get burned big time. Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter. It broke two "rules". Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Strange fall so far Yup. Wettest ever certainly qualifies. Actually the wettest fall was 1853. That year had as much rain in just November that this one had Sep - Nov. January 1854 went below zero. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Be careful with statements like that. You will eventually get burned big time. Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter. It broke two "rules". I never said -enso and -QBO were always mediocre. I experienced 1984-85 first hand. 2007-08 was another -enso -QBO winter. There are always exceptions. My statement was merely a generalization. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Be careful with statements like that. You will eventually get burned big time. Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter. It broke two "rules". There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. We will never know what went wrong that winter. Too little data available to figure it out. That one has bugged me for many many years now. Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters. The NE had a very cold Feb. On the whole the winters around it made up for every bit of lameness though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: Add about 100 piles to that! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 hours ago, The Swamp said: I'm not a scientist and I struggle to read these here models posted but I can remember for the last 50 years or so when we have these warm southerly AR type systems we usually flip the switch at some point and go into the deep freezer. Sometimes it's a quick hitter and other times it's a week to ten days of cold either with or with out snow. Once this things flips, and it will, all your teeth gnashing about hour 384 will be forgotten because the goodies will suddenly appear within 7 days and the signal will get stronger and it will happen. I'll say it again. December 10th the good stuff begins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We will never know what went wrong that winter. Too little data available to figure it out. That one has bugged me for many many years now. Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters. The NE had a very cold Feb. No matter how hard we try to figure it out... weather is chaotic and random. Much like the entire universe. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1933 had a dry and warm November. It does appear a dry/warm November is a very bad sign for the upcoming winter... A wet/warm November has more mixed results. 1999 would be an example of a warm/wet November that did not turn out well. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We will never know what went wrong that winter. Too little data available to figure it out. That one has bugged me for many many years now. Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters. The NE had a very cold Feb. On the whole the winters around it made up for every bit of lameness though. Here are the PRISM stats for here.... Incredibly warm, not actually overly wet... Except for December. January was just a tad above average and November and February were very very dry. November: 55/39 3.54" December: 47.5/38.2 24.59" January: 50/37.6 12.37" February: 54.1/38.3 2.14" 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Looks like KGEG broke a record high today of 56. previous was 55 in 1883. It's also 18 degrees above normal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, Phishy Wx said: Looks like KGEG broke a record high today of 56. previous was 55 in 1883. It's also 18 degrees above normal 138 year old record high 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 December 1933/January 1934 had probably the strongest +EPO and Alaska vortex in the last century. Fairbanks was 23 degrees below average for both of those months. They hit -66 on 1/14. Cold was very extreme, just bottled up. Except the Greenland blocking must have been extreme as well because the arctic air funneled into the NE and they had a historic arctic blast in late December and then the all time February (-15 in NYC). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow drift said: With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good. 2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight. Kind of interesting to look at the other years. 1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record 1932-33 - OR state record low set in February 1949-50 - Well you know... 1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: December 1933/January 1934 had probably the strongest +EPO and Alaska vortex in the last century. Fairbanks was 23 degrees below average for both of those months. They hit -66 on 1/14. Cold was very extreme, just bottled up. Except the Greenland blocking must have been extreme as well because the arctic air funneled into the NE and they had a historic arctic blast in late December and then the all time February (-15 in NYC). -66 in Fairbanks on 1/14 is impressive and so is -15 in NYC in February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good. 2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight. Kind of interesting to look at the other years. 1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record 1932-33 - OR state record low set in February 1949-50 - Well you know... 1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow. 1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow drift said: -66 in Fairbanks on 1/14 is impressive and so is -15 in NYC in February. Both are all time records. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow drift said: 1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them. Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground. Maybe you meant 2015-16? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground. The late December “event” in 2014 was pretty decent. If the models currently had something like that dangling at 144 hours out the server might crash. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good. 2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight. Kind of interesting to look at the other years. 1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record 1932-33 - OR state record low set in February 1949-50 - Well you know... 1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow. Don’t forget December 1932. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The late December “event” in 2014 was pretty decent. If the models currently had something like that dangling at 144 hours out the server might crash. Yeah, strictly backdoor and clipper-esque though. I don't remember that period ever looking like it had more than glancing blow potential during that particular model-riding odyssey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, strictly backdoor and clipper-esque though. I don't remember that period ever looking like it had more than glancing blow potential during that particular model-riding odyssey. We were fresh off 2013-14. Expectations were much higher then. Still though, PDX advecting into the 20’s is nothing to sneeze at in the 21st century. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yup. Wettest ever certainly qualifies. Actually the wettest fall was 1853. That year had as much rain in just November that this one had Sep - Nov. January 1854 went below zero. Interesting. Oct 1854 was the previous Oct record for negative PDO https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1463181665019256835?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground. Maybe you meant 2015-16? I lived in Coeur d'Alene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Don’t forget December 1932. Mid January 1933 also had a pretty monster snowstorm for the Portland area. About 9" in downtown. Fairly light amounts to our north and south, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, snow drift said: 1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them. what's up with the snowfall records for Spokane in 1995-96? most of the season is missing. someone get fired or something? staffing cuts? equipment malfunction? corrupted data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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