PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z CFS was insane for January.  Unquestionably a Jan 1950 redux it's showing.

Do you have a link to the site you use for that or is it on weatherbell? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is way north with Monday's system. 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not real progressive.

Borderline Rand Paul.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Outpost54 said:

Tbh I think people are under estimating the new GFS. Don't forget it was upgraded like a year ago. Ever since then, it has pretty clearly led the way with almost every "extreme" event we've had in the last year, while the Euro has played catch-up. Remember the GFS picked up on our absurd heat wave first, and the big snow storm in February.

 

I don't think it's totally insane anymore to give the GFS more credit than the euro in cases like this. The new upgrade seems to be a genuine Improvement.

I disagree.

The GFS D5 z500 skill scores are on par with where the ECMWF was in 2008. 

 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do you have a link to the site you use for that or is it on weatherbell? 

Weatherbell.  There are others, but the graphics aren't as pretty and they don't have snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I disagree.

 

Nice to see both models are clearly improving at any rate.

[paulb/eugene]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z CFS was insane for January.  Unquestionably a Jan 1950 redux it's showing.

Очень холодно, как же в Сибири!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON is way north with Monday's system. 

Looks better than both the 12z and 18z though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

It definitely was great for January but it came at the expense of Christmas time.

Which raises an interesting question: Would you rather get a white Christmas or a January 1950 redux?

It would have to be more than just a white Christmas to choose it over the other.

[paulb/eugene]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Очень холодно, как же в Сибири!

Моя Жена, она из  Иркутска 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

That block is bloody impressive.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ruh roh...

I've been looking at this one as a wild card anyway.  Even a little bit would be awesome to get things going.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS blinks first?

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

Obviously how well that clipper digs in late in the week is going to have big implications for lowland snow chances.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Initial trough doesn't dig as well so it's a fair amount warmer...

I don't think it's settled yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

We all knew the EURO was going to win the Day 4-7 model solution battle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far this run is a massive step backwards.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think I'm going to vomit. jk.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ouch. 00z GFS is no bueno across the board for the earlier stuff. See how it goes in the mid/long range. 

In the overall scheme it's only a small change.  This thing has a very tight gradient and could still end up colder than this run.  It will still get chilly regardless.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Моя Жена, она из  Иркутска 

Is her name vladdy?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think I'm going to vomit. jk.

It'll be fine.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think I'm going to vomit. jk.

#1992

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to come in like the EURO/GEM. Figures the GFS would cave. Was fun while it lasted though!

[Phil]

Too thowzand ande zeven

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Too thowzand ande zeven

1933/34 is probably the better analog. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Going to come in like the EURO/GEM. Figures the GFS would cave. Was fun while it lasted though!

The GFS was always on its own. And it’s a subpar model. Performs worse than the CMC and UKMET @ 500mb.

If it were the Euro sticking its neck out this would have been more interesting to follow.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

Spokane has always been an area of my interest for quite a while without needing to leave the state. Weather-wise I think it’s great but in general, I think the Seattle area is a shiitshow. Not what it was 20-30 years ago. 

I’m also at a point where I don’t want to be on pins and needles looking at the models constantly for a shot of cold air, then to have it be completely marginal. 

we can get marginal sh*t over here in E WA too, but yeah it does snow

[SalemDuck]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Too thowzand ande zeven

You’re going to look like a genius or the village idiot.

[snow_wizard]

Still a very decent run with surface gradients favorable for well below normal temps.  The second snow chance pans out on this.  Hopefully we'll see some support going forward.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Too thowzand ande zeven

Way too much blocking for that on all the models.  You saw the weeklies yesterday I'm sure.  AK cold dislodged and heads south.

I guess you're going to go down with the ship on the 2007 call.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Somehow still shows snow Monday morning...

The cold still arrives.  You have to look at surface gradients with these things as well.  They are very favorable.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

You’re going to look like a genius or the village idiot.

I’d rather be the village idiot if it means we avoid repeating a zonal snoozefest like 1999.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

Pretty hard to be very upset about the big picture at this point.

[GHweatherChris]

2021/22

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’d rather be the village idiot if it means we avoid a boring, zonal s**tfest of a winter.  

Please tell me you have analogs besides 2007.  That is really short sighted if you don't.  As I've mentioned that November was totally different here observed weather wise.