PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Tons of potential ahead and I'll say it, as good as December 2008, but will that potential be realized. Yes, of course. Did you think I was going to say, "Nah, not really?" no chance. What fun would that be? NOPE! C'MON!!!! Ya gotta believe!

00z ECMWF 57 minutes

I have faith in you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the end of the day this might be the best we can do over the next 2-3 weeks. At least we stop torching in about 7-10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain and temps in the 50s on Monday according to the GEM. I wonder how quickly the remnants of our glaciers can be washed away?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is better though... 

[Outpost54]

Now that the GFS has pulled back a bit, watch the 00z Euro flip and start showing major snow this weekend/early next week. I've got a weird feeling about this run, lol.

[Deweydog]

PDX down to 56.

Sub-50 intro to DECEMBER looking unlikely.

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's the most pages for one month?

I mean last February had 396 pages split into three threads. Not sure how many February 2019 had.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is better though... 

This is great. Yeah I thought at Day 5.5 it was showing good signs for possible improvement.

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,069

I thought it would be 42069

[Gradient Keeper]

Patience. Pretend you're fishing. Fishing for Cold and SNOW!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

But inversions and the cold anomalies they bring?

It might just be a quick hitter, kinda like a cheap fling!! A hahahaha  

[SalemDuck]

Big block in the long range. Need to move that east about 15 degrees 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Pretty good SE ridge! Teleconnections 4 LIFE!

[Phishy Wx]

[Phishy Wx]

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

[SalemDuck]

The GEM made some nice improvements 

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM Day 10. Incredible potential ahead!

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we can both agree that some of us take this stuff seriously.

Unfortunately nature is very chaotic.   

If you are being honest... you have to admit that you put in lots of work to prove your desired outcome.  You don't spend hours posting and analyzing to tell us about things you don't like.    And to be honest... neither do I.   Most of us aren't really objective.     Phil might be closer to that because he has no horse in our race.   And Matt has always seemed very objective to me which is why we all seem to want to know his thoughts.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty good SE ridge! Teleconnections 4 LIFE!

I’m only 88 miles from the blue!

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I thought it would be 42069

42

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Please tell me you have analogs besides 2007.  That is really short sighted if you don't.  As I've mentioned that November was totally different here observed weather wise.

1999

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow I was only gone a few hours I missed a lot!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow I was only gone a few hours I missed a lot!

This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we’re gonna fall short of the wettest S/O/N with 19.21” of rain…record is 2016 with 19.39”. Pretty close though. 
 Very warm finish to the month…last 5 days torched 55/52 today 0.11” of rain today and 9.72” this month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 

1999/2007 analogs…winter cancels…”communist news network” this forums almost never a dull place especially this time of year. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

42

442

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 

Yep! Lots of yep, oh, and simple fast painless answers from me when she's talking to me.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

442

Oldsmobile car from the 60's and 70's, mom and dad had one. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like we’re gonna fall short of the wettest S/O/N with 19.21” of rain…record is 2016 with 19.39”. Pretty close though. 
 Very warm finish to the month…last 5 days torched 55/52 today 0.11” of rain today and 9.72” this month. 

So close!  

[Phil]

Not sure if this interests anyone but check out these localized temperature variations.

Upper 20s to low 50s just a few miles apart. Nocturnal downslope winds have been common lately, causing all kinds of weird anomalies.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false&center=39.248473233548935,-77.55867004394533&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=10&obs_provider=

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we’re going to finish this month with a +2.3 departure and about 150% of normal rainfall. 25/30 days had rainfall this month. 
 This fall will end up slightly warmer than normal thanks to November with about 150% of the average rainfall. Very much ready for winter!

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I have three analog pools I’m looking at, actually.

The pool containing 1974, 1999, 2005, and 2007 has performed the best thus far.

Still time to shake things up.  But it ain’t gonna happen until the winter solstice, at earliest. First half of December is already shot.

We are tracking 1999 and 2007 perfectly. 2005 featured the warm Ar's into California in Dec so that is already off the table. I am hoping for 2007 since 1999 sucked 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep! Lots of yep, oh, and simple fast painless answers from me when she's talking to me.

If we ever have a forum gathering... we would probably all just be sitting around a table staring at our phones.   Maybe even talking to each other on here while we are there.     

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

So close!  

Still the wettest fall in history for most of the western WA…not as much rain here which is fine with me. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If we ever have a forum gathering... we would probably all just be sitting around a table staring at our phones.  

If there’s a forum meet up I’m not sure where it would be…TWLs house so we can get to see how bad it really is in Eugene or a more centralized location like Dewey’s house. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are tracking 1999 and 2007 perfectly. 2005 featured the warm Ar's into California in Dec so that is already off the table. I am hoping for 2007 since 1999 sucked 

Interesting that you are tracking perfectly with both 1999 and 2007.     This month has been pretty close to 1999 up here in terms of tangible weather.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If there’s a forum meet up I’m not sure where it would be…TWLs house so we can get to see how bad it really is in Eugene or a more centralized location like Dewey’s house. 

Yeah... Matt's house would be perfect.   But he likes to remain anonymous for professional reasons which is a good call.

[Phil]

Man if we can somehow avoid avoid a +ENSO transition in 2022, next winter would be in rare company as 3rd year niña/+QBO and likely -PMM.

All dreamland for now but it’s possible.