PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... Matt's house would be perfect.   But he likes to remain anonymous for professional reasons which is a good call.

Robs house or anywhere in Portland would probably be the best…might be a little far for mossman and the Bellingham folks but they’re all insufferable jerks who hog up all the snow every winter anyways so they can do the long drive!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure if this interests anyone but check out these localized temperature variations.

Upper 20s to low 50s just a few miles apart. Nocturnal downslope winds have been common lately, causing all kinds of weird anomalies.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false&center=39.248473233548935,-77.55867004394533&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=10&obs_provider=

Looks very similar to temp map around the east side of Seattle during east wind, downslope events.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If we ever have a forum gathering... we would probably all just be sitting around a table staring at our phones.   Maybe even talking to each other on here while we are there.     

Hahaha know dude, we're a bunch of knuckle heads when it comes to weather. We'd be all there but still looking at the forum lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

December we will see model runs so cold we won't know how to contain ourselves. MBG

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks very similar to temp map around the east side of Seattle during east wind, downslope events.

I feel sorry for the unlucky souls that spiked into the 50s. All that radiational cooling just wasted.

[TT-SEA]

56 and dry and breezy out here... looks like it might be pretty much dry until tomorrow night.   Tomorrow is going to be a warm start to December... easily into the low 60s here.    And will likely set the stage for a huge temperature variation for the month.  

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

1999/2007 analogs…winter cancels…”communist news network” this forums almost never a dull place especially this time of year. 

you pulled some gems

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man if we can somehow avoid avoid a +ENSO transition in 2022, next winter would be in rare company as 3rd year niña/+QBO and likely -PMM.

All dreamland for now but it’s possible. 

whats a -PMM?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All are welcome at Winter's Hill. We've been talking about a get together for years and years. It would be a hoot. Maybe we could even invite Jesse for old time's sake.

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

whats a -PMM?

Pacific meridional mode.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/PMM.html

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All are welcome at Winter's Hill. We've been talking about a get together for years and years. It would be a hoot. Maybe we could even invite Jesse for old time's sake.

Lol now THAT would be very interesting. Jesse scolding people for saying it’s a nice sunny day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Price per gallon of gas in a few months

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And Phil. You better make it you son of a b*tch. 

Which is when we realize you are actually a sexy woman, posing as a dork from the mountains of Maryland via Stampede Pass. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC thinking of ways to go about spitting out this run...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS trying to drop the hammer on us IF the ridge cooperates!

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pacific meridional mode.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/PMM.html

I'm sorry I asked lol

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

 

holy , we're further away from 1999 than when that song came out.  SLOW DOWN, TIME!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And Phil. You better make it you son of a b*tch. 

Which is when we realize you are actually a sexy woman, posing as a dork from the mountains of Maryland via Stampede Pass. 

[snow_wizard]

That is one great looking GEFS tonight.  Really sharp trough.

Huge improvement from earlier runs and the AK cold begins to get displaced late in the run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is one great looking GEFS tonight.  Really sharp trough.

Yep, and great tilt as the arctic air digs south-southwest. Positive anomaly on block at ~160 W. This is only the beginning my friend!

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Doesn't look like it's about to snow. 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the ensemble has picked up on a very strong signal for the mean to change so much.  Let's hope this is for real.

[Gradient Keeper]

Best GEFS run by far! We're getting there folks.

[Phil]

The extended range GEFS control run is insane, even more anomalous than 1950. Arctic airmass remains parked over the PNW for weeks, -PNA/-NAO, and literally meters of snowfall.

Too bad it won’t happen. 

[Phishy Wx]

damnit front ranger. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep, and great tilt as the arctic air digs south-southwest. Positive anomaly on block at ~160 W. This is only the beginning my friend!

The model trends have been fantastic today for week two.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't look like it's about to snow. 

+EPO. Such a turn off.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The extended range GEFS control run is insane, even more anomalous than 1950. Arctic airmass remains parked over the PNW for weeks, -PNA/-NAO, and literally meters of snowfall.

Too bad it won’t happen. 

Yeah. About that. It's coming.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is one great looking GEFS tonight.  Really sharp.

Huge improvement from earlier runs.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The extended range GEFS control run is insane, even more anomalous than 1950. Arctic airmass remains parked over the PNW for weeks, -PNA/-NAO, and literally meters of snowfall.

Too bad it won’t happen. 

I think you are enjoying trying to bring us down.  I think something good is going to happen, but anything like what the GEFS long range is showing is always doubtful.  Not impossible though.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The extended range GEFS control run is insane, even more anomalous than 1950. Arctic airmass remains parked over the PNW for weeks, -PNA/-NAO, and literally meters of snowfall.

Too bad it won’t happen. 

It will cause you just used the metric system. This  is America and not some European nation. Use the imperial system!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

+EPO. Such a turn off.

It is going to drop though.  You seemingly ignored the ECMWF weeklies.  I don't totally get why you're being like this.