October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

Great post Tom. I've been wondering why I haven't heard or read anyone talking about sea ice lately. Now I know.

[jaster220]

Great post Tom. I've been wondering why I haven't heard or read anyone talking about sea ice lately. Now I know.

 

Here you go..

 

Hot (pun intended) off the press! Interesting tid-bit: http://realclimatesc...s-for-ice-gain/

[OKwx2k4]

Here you go..

 

Hot (pun intended) off the press! Interesting tid-bit: http://realclimatesc...s-for-ice-gain/

Wow! Had no idea. Very impressive.

[Geos]

Didn't know Arctic sea ice was that high - that's awesome!

Interestingly it's happening during at strong El Niño.

 

Today there was drizzle and some graupel in this area with a temp of 37°. Graupel isn't a true snowflake, but it is a mixture of snow and supercooled water droplets stuck together.

 

High of only 47° today. Seeing quite a few bare to mostly bare trees now.

[james1976]

Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active.

[Tom]

Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active.

El NINO and the transitioning of seasons, along with the strengthening jet are all beginning to contribute into the overall pattern.  The LRC is going to be very exciting this year.  Even though it started off slow (I believe it was somewhat due to the "boring" wx pattern from last year), the atmosphere had a "lag" and now we are seeing it respond.  Most models caught this active pattern and we are seeing it come into fruition.  I like the overall SW Flow/Split Flow pattern that is setting up.  Should be interesting as we roll on into November.

[james1976]

El NINO and the transitioning of seasons, along with the strengthening jet are all beginning to contribute into the overall pattern.  The LRC is going to be very exciting this year.  Even though it started off slow (I believe it was somewhat due to the "boring" wx pattern from last year), the atmosphere had a "lag" and now we are seeing it respond.  Most models caught this active pattern and we are seeing it come into fruition.  I like the overall SW Flow/Split Flow pattern that is setting up.  Should be interesting as we roll on into November.

Yes, Im liking how systems are coming from the SW. Could be some big winter storms when they come back around.

[Tom]

Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active.

Not a bad looking system hitting the Plains/Midwest right now.  Nice slug of GOM moisture with an ULL digging south into S NM.  Water Vapor imagery looks nice...fast forward towards December and this would be another great storm system to track.

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

Got a feeling that the GOM is going to pay huge dividends this winter season. 

[Tom]

Gotta say, it's nice to see the GFS/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies/Ensembles continue to pound away at storms hitting the central CONUS instead of the East Coast.  How often has it been in recent years that they were hit storm after storm.  So far this October, the storm track has targeted the most significant storms to hit from the southern Plains to the Lakes.  Looks to continue into November.

[Geos]

Unfortunately the forecast for Trick o'treating looks wet tomorrow here and pretty cool as well. 

 

56/32 for today. Looks like this month will end up about one degree above normal.

[Tom]

Saw this article NASA posted regarding Antarctic Sea Ice growth outweighing melting glaciers.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

[Tom]

I know the SST's in the Pacific have been talked about a lot on here, but has anyone noticed how warm the GOM has been trending???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

If the Gulf continues to boil, this can contribute to fueling systems down the road.

[Tom]

A-typical Halloween weather out there today.  Damp/wet/cool conditions for the Trick O' Treaters.  I think the stats are roughly 50% of Halloweens are wet around here anyway.  Certainly looks and feels like late October.  Next week, much different story.  There will be some nice weather to do some raking.  

 

More and more bare tree's are showing up now.  I wonder how soon we'll see all the leaves gone this year.  Last year, I remember them totally gone a little before Thanksgiving week.  With the expected active storminess next week and windier conditions, I think this will ramp up the leaves falling off.

 

In Day 5-15, some real frigid air begins to build NW of Japan in eastern Siberia that eventually makes it's way through East Asia/Japan in the extended.  Interestingly enough, if you would use the East Asian Theory, that would place this mass of arctic air Day 11-21 into NW NAMER, which would be roughly mid November to right before Thanksgiving week.  Now, look at what is happening over NW NAMER...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

The SSW Theory suggests cooling to follow in the 2-4 week period thereafter which would place that cold pool in the same time frame as the East Asian Theory.  If you have been watching the CFSv2, where is it placing this arctic air???  You guessed it, right into NW NAMER during this aforementioned period in November.  Here is the models recent Week 3 & 4 run...that is some real frigid air to build in later on in November.  The question is, will the Alaskan ridge build in later in the month and back load colder air into the lower 48???

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151030.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

The last October run is seeing a much colder Western Canada and west coast.  I could see the cold "pushing" far enough south to create a very active central CONUS storm track next month.  There is still a very strong -PNA signal through next month.  Interesting times to say the least.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif

[Geos]

These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.

They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that.

 

A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!

Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.

[james1976]

These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.

They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that.

 

A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!

Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.

starting already? its only 2pm

[NEJeremy]

The GFS has been showing a pretty consistent signal of very cold weather towards the middle of the month. It's been showing freezing temps all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico

[Geos]

starting already? its only 2pm

 

Yep, it's always during the day. Too many cars and other dangers to have it at night.

 

Haven't seen anyone linger outside today though.

With luck the rain might clear out by 4pm.

[Maxim]

These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.

They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that.

 

A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!

Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.

I expect to see some pretty healthy positive departures this month though for the Eastern half of the country. Who cares though, it's not like a cold November would benefit us anyway.

[Maxim]

These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.

They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that.

 

A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!

Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.

Oh, and those aren't probability maps. It clearly tells the reader how much it could potentially be above/below normal.

[Tom]

The region got a pretty good Halloween soaker.  ORD picked up 0.77" of rainfall (4th wettest Halloween).

 

The first half of the month was rather dry, but then the rains came...the Lakes region did quite well and picked up roughly 2-3" or rainfall this month.

[Geos]

It was a nice rally the last 7 days of the month. 2.41" of rain total.

1.1° above normal, so not a big departure at all.

 

[gosaints]

Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days.  Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/mn/7dTDeptHPRCC-MN.png

 

There is the 7 last seven days since we had a slight disagreement.  I am already almost plus 4 on those seven days.  The next three will only add to it.  Very much above average.

[gosaints]

Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days.  Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead.

+11 in the timeframe