Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 best I can find ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Thanks. I knew about this site. That PNA prediction is lower than the chart on the CPC's site.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have a related question. Does anyone know where to find past indices charts? (EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO specifically) Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Nice battle shaping up on the euro versus gfs at 500 mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Nice battle shaping up on the euro versus gfs at 500 mbYou referring to the 27th? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 You referring to the 27th?Ya basically between hour 192 and 240. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Ya basically between hour 192 and 240.I vote for the Euro only further south. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I vote for the Euro only further south. :-)The EURO is a much better look for real storms. GFS is just rip roaring progressive garbage. Sure its showing way below normal temps but that pattern is not gonna produce anything other than a nuisance snow. Euro look has potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro likes to drag energy behind and leave it hanging back in the Rockies to long. A combo of both the GFS/EURO would be ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro likes to drag energy behind and leave it hanging back in the Rockies to long. ---> A combo of both the GFS/EURO would be ideal.This. Hoping it digs far enough south to snow on me a little before paying you guys a visit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have a related question. Does anyone know where to find past indices charts? (EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO specifically) Thanks.Bump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Long range GFS is crazy. Wow Sorry, but these extremely vague non-specific posts are extremely annoying. Show what you are referring to or maybe take a min to spell it out. Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Long range GFS is crazy. WowCrazy cold dry and boring. Super progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain.I am with you. I know a lot of people hate cold a dry but there is nothing worse that 39 degrees and rain in any month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain.I'd take the 39 degrees part. Lol. I sweated for awhile early this morning at work and then had a tornado warned storm pass directly overhead. Pretty exciting morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 18z GFS looking better for Thanksgiving week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Fantasy Land GFS...this would be awesome to have this much of the country covered with snow to open up December...let the pattern load up! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS/EURO starting to show a nice Split Flow pattern Week 1-2 as we close out November. Heading towards the new JMA monthlies/EURO/CANSIPS 500mb pattern for December. A deep trough should form south of the Aleutians and "hand off" pieces of energy into the west coast. So long there is ridging in Central Canada, things are going to get pretty wild. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 My word, that is a very cold and quite active fantasy land 18z GFS. Mostly after Thanksgiving. The cold doesn't seem to push all the storminess too far south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's a long ways out but boy is great to see such a colorful map on the latest GFS. It's been awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Fantasy Land GFS...this would be awesome to have this much of the country covered with snow to open up December...let the pattern load up!Too far north. :-( 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Too far north. :-(I'm all for shifting that heavier snow axis southeast so it lines up with Oklahoma and Ohio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'm all for shifting that heavier snow axis southeast so it lines up with Oklahoma and Ohio.Lol. Me too. It could be like a January '78 storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 00z GFS continuing with a powerhouse Thanksgiving storm but way north. North Dakota gets absolutely destroyed this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 If the models continue to trend the way they have, (not saying they will, BUT IF they do) we could be seeing a +TNH pattern for December. It's not a warm pattern here in the central US. Not even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 This thread has been quiet pretty much all day, everyones all focused on the snowstorm on Friday. But lets talk about what happens after that. Right now, snow prospects don't look too promising after Friday for awhile. Another storm is expected on Thanksgiving Day, but it seems to be a rain maker at this point. How are things looking for the last days of November after the storm on Friday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 East Asian/Bearing Sea Rule seem to be panning out for the Thanksgiving storm system. The storm that just hit Japan wasn't really a wound up storm suggesting a sheared storm, maybe a 2 part storm with one wave heading up into the Upper Midwest then another piece that may lag behind and develop into something. If all the energy can come out all at once, then it will be quite a significant storm system to hit the central CONUS. Post-storm, the coldest air of the season hits and it might be colder than what we saw last November. If there is a snow cover in the Plains/Upper Midwest, some places are going to see insane cold for the time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 That is the strongest and most long-lasting high pressure I've ever seen. Im talking post- Thanksgiving. LOL. However, I do not expect that to verify. But its fun to watch long range models.Im referring to tonight's 00z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 NASA's arsenal to track Winter storms this season... http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--AI6lUPx8--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1524882946549640850.jpg Here's the article...http://gizmodo.com/winter-is-coming-and-this-nasa-aircraft-will-help-study-1743225063?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_twitter&utm_source=io9_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking ahead, I'm going to be frustrated if I let people talk me into going too warm for December. Lol. Regardless of absolute numbers, there's the best signal for intense cold I have seen in a long time with a potential suppressed storm track over TX/OK/AR. I wouldn't mind starting December out like that. Not at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'll be going to Topeka Kansas for Thanksgiving, then I'll be back in Texas for a day before I get on a plane to head back to Ohio, some of these model runs are trying to trap me in Texas for a few days lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking ahead, I'm going to be frustrated if I let people talk me into going too warm for December. Lol. Regardless of absolute numbers, there's the best signal for intense cold I have seen in a long time with a potential suppressed storm track over TX/OK/AR. I wouldn't mind starting December out like that. Not at all.In a long time. How about the last 2 winters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 In a long time. How about the last 2 winters?I meant that early in the winter. I guess you could count last November if you wanted but that's not really winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I meant that early in the winter. I guess you could count last November if you wanted but that's not really winter.Definitely gonna be some cold days but I highly doubt we see cold with the staying power the GFS was showing a few runs ago. It has lightened up on it considerably. Euro has as well. NAO and AO could rage in december. EPO flips back positive it will be hello pacific air. Long range starting to look more el nino like. Basically when it should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 With a peak wind gust of 49MPH and a high temp of yesterday was yet another warm and windy day here in GR. And for the month GR now has a mean temp of 51.0 and that is +8.4. With that mean temp of 51.0° the next item of interest is just how much will GR lose during the upcoming cool down? The all time record warmest November here was 47.6° in 1931 with 46.8 in 2008 being the second warmest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The GFS has basically gone from all out artic onslaught to a glancing blow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Oh I don't doubt at all that the cold was overdone quite a bit yesterday. No way is it going to be 11 down here in eastern Oklahoma on December 4th. Lol. But the overall pattern screams cold at least from what I can see and I believe most of the 10-15 degree fluctuations at such long leads are primarily due to the model estimates of snowcover or lack thereof and what to do with the typhoon over the pacific. Typhoons tend to hurt the skill scores at long leads in both models if I'm not mistaken. I'm still looking for an AO drop around mid month but will probably get kinda warm before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 thanksgiving storm looking like a waste. positive tilted glorified cold front Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Windy day so far. Sun is out, but isn't helping it feel much warmer. Near steady temperature since sunrise. CAA going strongly. Soil temps have taken a tumble as well. Snow should stick without problem tomorrow night.Colder waters should upwell along the west coast of Lake Michigan today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Cold shots are back on this run of the GFS to close out November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.