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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY CONDITIONS...SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...CAN
BE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND MAY PRODUCE A VARIETY OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE HAZARDS INCLUDE FLOODING...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE WAVES ON THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...MANY FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT 5 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES DURING
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL THIS HEAVY WOULD PRODUCE FLOODING ON RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CENTRAL
CASCADES MAY ALSO FLOOD IF THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO RAISE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES ON STEEP
SLOPES AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON.

MANY FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WIND THIS STRONG WOULD RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES.

LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COAST ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS MAY
REACH 19 TO 23 FEET. THESE WAVES...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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Even hit-or-miss can be more than what I've seen in the Seattle area since '08. We live north of the city in Doylestown, where I've been told the local waterways free in January, snow cover seems to last a few weeks at a time, and even in the warm years feature some interesting weather. Looking forward to this winter in even its worst possible offerings, so don't try bringing down with reality Mr Flatiron!

What's your elevation? Even a mere few hundred feet can make a huge difference around here, not just in snowfall but also in wind speeds and radiational cooling potential.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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The thunderstorm moving up through the Sound just gave Gig Harbor a crazy hail storm.

 

Looks like snow:

 

https://www.facebook.com/scottskomo/videos/1069522769734306/

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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That is a lot of hail! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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in laymens terms at face value what are we looking at here?

2 big windstorms for SW Washington and the Willamette Valley. The second storm would be pretty huge at face value.

 

But at day 7 and 9 respectively, there is zero reason to get excited.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Winter Storm watch posted for the Cascades.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

 

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE

RAINFALL TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY CONDITIONS...SOUTH

TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...CAN

BE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATER TUESDAY

NIGHT.

 

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE

ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND MAY PRODUCE A VARIETY OF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE HAZARDS INCLUDE FLOODING...

DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE WAVES ON THE COAST.

 

AT THIS TIME...MANY FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT 5 TO 8

INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES DURING

THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

RAINFALL THIS HEAVY WOULD PRODUCE FLOODING ON RIVERS FLOWING OFF

THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CENTRAL

CASCADES MAY ALSO FLOOD IF THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES SOUTH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO RAISE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES ON STEEP

SLOPES AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON.

 

MANY FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS

TO 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WIND THIS STRONG WOULD RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER

OUTAGES.

 

LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE WASHINGTON

COAST ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS MAY

REACH 19 TO 23 FEET. THESE WAVES...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL LIKELY

CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 

PEOPLE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATEST WEATHER

FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Sounds exciting!  :) 

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Looks like a dry weekend coming up now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like a dry weekend coming up now. 

 

 

Not according to the 12Z Canadian and 00Z ECMWF.     Not even close.   You have to look at all three models.   GFS is out to lunch with holding back energy.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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-1c at 850mb is a below average 850mb temp for this date. Average 850mb temp is in the 3-4c range right now.

 

Luckily they dropped a bit around midnight. Then this morning managed to get pretty chilly willy!

 

The median is certainly close to freezing, and I'm not sure why you'd have expected chillier temps yesterday given the setup (onshore flow and sunbreaks after a weak front with limited CAA). Implying that there was anything odd about the way yesterday progressed is odd in and of itself. 

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Not according to the 12Z Canadian and 00Z ECMWF.     Not even close.   You have to look at all three models.   GFS is out to lunch with holding back energy.

 

The rain will likely be focused well to the north of OR on Thursday-Saturday, but yeah, the run to run consistency of the GFS is pretty lousy again with this energy.

 

Saturday should definitely be wet for like the 6th weekend in a row.

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The median is certainly close to freezing, and I'm not sure why you'd have expected chillier temps yesterday given the setup (onshore flow and sunbreaks after a weak front with limited CAA). Implying that there was anything odd about the way yesterday progressed is odd in and of itself.

Yesterday was by no means some sort of blockbuster pattern for cold anomalies, it's just interesting how consistently they exceed expectations lately.

 

I think there were some who where predicting, with a great degree of certainly, that the first week of November would run cool. It ended up close to two degrees above average at PDX. Just a continuation of the crap we have seen starting March of 2014. Getting to the point where it's downright weird.

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Yesterday was by no means some sort of blockbuster pattern for cold anomalies, it's just interesting how consistently they exceed expectations lately.

 

I think there were some who where predicting, with a great degree of certainly, that the first week of November would run cool. It ended up close to two degrees above average at PDX. Just a continuation of the crap we have seen starting March of 2014. Getting to the point where it's downright weird.

It's not been anywhere near above normal here.

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ECMWF is actually showing the trough migrating SLOWLY to the east and finally bringing some cooler/wetter weather to more of the country.   We have been in the trough position for weeks now while they have basked in endless late summer in the eastern half of the US.    I hope this verifies... it will open up the pattern more.   It would mean drier and cooler out here eventually.     Over 14 inches of rain here since 10/1 and its pouring rain again today.      Drought! 

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015110912!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF is actually showing the trough migrating SLOWLY to the east and finally bringing some cooler/wetter weather to more of the country. We have been in the trough position for weeks now while they have basked in endless late summer in the eastern half of the US. I hope this verifies... it will open up the pattern more. It would mean drier and cooler out here eventually. Over 14 inches of rain here since 10/1 and its pouring rain again today. Drought!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015110912!!chart.gif

Without building up our snowpack this rain is meaningless in the longer term.

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Looks like a dry weekend coming up now. 

 

12Z ECMWF has the heaviest rain in Oregon for most of Saturday and then Sunday as well.

 

The opposite of this statement above... even for your location.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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