November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The initial shot of northerly flow always completely misses this area out here. 

 

SEA is at N16G29 with very dry air pushing in... and yet its dead calm here with thick fog.   There is no way for northerly flow to reach out here.   Very typical transition when a low sinks south down the coast.   We have to wait for some easterly flow to kick in which is usually on the second day.   

[richard mann]

I think everyone is screwed for December, lol. I'm done regurgitating my winter forecast in here, though.

 

.. From extremely vague, through somewhat less, to fairly concise. 

 

— Let's hope this pans out just as written.

[TT-SEA]

Friendly yearly reminder that if you play "weather therapist" to those who you don't understand their love for all things cold/warm, it will result in Mod preview. Consider this a warning to a couple of you.

 

Moving to Philly with the anticipation of snow was a bad idea. People are throwing the 06-07 analog on Twitter. That was a great year in Seattle, with windstorms, cold spells, and some snow.

 

 

Not sure about 2006-07.    We should be looking at a huge snowstorm and arctic outbreak right now if that was working out.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible live cam footage of Bend right now.

 

http://67.210.198.15:9292/?src=1&mode=0

[TT-SEA]

Incredible live cam footage of Bend right now.

 

http://67.210.198.15:9292/?src=1&mode=0

 

 

Love live web cams during weather events.   Looks like easterly upslope has kicked in there.

[Phil]

Not sure about 2006-07. We should be looking at a huge snowstorm and arctic outbreak right now if that was working out.

It's a good large scale analog.

[TT-SEA]

It's a good large scale analog.

 

 

Well... we better get our snow and clear, cold weather in early January then.   

[DareDuck]

It's dumping! Up to 7 inches now. Roads are treacherous though. Lots of stuck vehicles and spin outs.

[crf450ish]

I got 2.5" of nice powdery snow here at my house. Little less then half melted today but there is still enough on the ground for the kids to have fun. Supposed to be 17 tonight, so thats good. Hopefully I can get more snow before t day. 

[Jesse]

I'm thinking we're going to have a respectable upper level transitioning to low level cold spell over the next 5-7 days.

 

People can say what they want, but at least mornings in the 20s, chilly east winds and ice on the waterfalls feels wintery!

[bainbridgekid]

Strong North Winds have knocked out power to 25,000 in Kitsap County including my parents' house on Bainbridge.

 

This tree fell on a car just on the other side of the bridge to the island:

 

http://mediaassets.kitsapsun.com/photo/2015/11/24/MinivanTree_27378852_ver1.0_640_480.jpg

 

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/local-news/surprising-winds-causing-havoc-in-kitsap_30541012

 

It was pretty impressive how quickly it went from drizzly and calm to a strong, cold, and very dry North wind this afternoon in Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

I'm thinking we're going to have a respectable upper level transitioning to low level cold spell over the next 5-7 days.

 

People can say what they want, but at least mornings in the 20s, chilly east winds and ice on the waterfalls feels wintery!

 

Looks like a cooler than average month is overwhelmingly likely.

[TT-SEA]

It's dumping! Up to 7 inches now. Roads are treacherous though. Lots of stuck vehicles and spin outs.

 

Watching it live... jealous!  

[Deweydog]

Saw a car with a headlight out go by a few minutes ago on there. So dangerous...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw a car with a headlight out to by a few minutes ago on there. So dangerous...

Call 911

[crf450ish]

Where are you located?

fruitland, wa. i thought it says it under my avatar. 

[FroYoBro]

I'm thinking we're going to have a respectable upper level transitioning to low level cold spell over the next 5-7 days.

 

People can say what they want, but at least mornings in the 20s, chilly east winds and ice on the waterfalls feels wintery!

 Yeah, the nights should be nice and cold after we get done with this cloudy evening. I will definitely take the next 5 days over warm rain. 

[Jesse]

Yeah, the nights should be nice and cold after we get done with this cloudy evening. I will definitely take the next 5 days over warm rain.

It also interests me that the cold pool that has been building in the basin the past few days was not disturbed by this system. In fact many areas over there have gotten or are getting snow today. That could definitely help along any type of home grown cold set up.

[Front Ranger]

Where are you going?

My parents moved to just south of Roseburg, visiting them there.

[Jesse]

Looks like a cooler than average month is overwhelmingly likely.

Indeed. Possibly the coolest (relative to average) month regionally since February 2014. Just depends on how the inversions work out the next week.

[crf450ish]

I have a couple of buddies here: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=111&y=243&site=riw&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=111&map_y=243#.VlUZSIRlmHo

that are working right now. Luckily for them they dont have to drive. They work inside. I wish I was there, with my snow machine right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[MossMan]

Was in Bellingham for a short period this afternoon, was quite windy with small branches blowing onto I-5 as I drove thru. About the only excitement anywhere around here.

[TT-SEA]

Mark Nelsen called the upcoming pattern very Nino-like as well. 

[bainbridgekid]

Sounds like it's actually a pretty serious situation with the wind on Bainbridge.

 

The power is out to most of the island and there are trees and branches down all over the place with several roads closed.

 

Kinda crazy how the North wind funneled down the East side of the Olympics. North winds are so much more damaging that SW. Wind advisory for Kitsap County as well as the North Interior through 6 AM.

[DareDuck]

9 inches now and counting. Could get up to a foot by morning. Had to pick up some family friends in town and the roads were a mess. At least I know I can drive in most conditions now.

[TT-SEA]

Random post......

 

Why does Jim bother you so much?  Do you lose sleep over his posts?

 

 

Actually in response to Dewey's random post earlier today about this pattern being Nino-ish.   

 

 

Pretty ninoish look to the long range.

 

 

Just noticed that Mark said the same thing yesterday...

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/23/ecmwf-weekly-maps-24/

 

3rd run in the past 10 days showing quite a bit of ridging lingering near us to the north and east.  Very interesting that WeatherBELL forecast this “classic” El Nino pattern for a winter average.

[TT-SEA]

Incredible live cam footage of Bend right now.

 

http://67.210.198.15:9292/?src=1&mode=0

 

 

Still dumping snow there.   An insanely white Thanksgiving for those folks.

[DareDuck]

Still dumping snow there. An insanely white Thanksgiving for those folks.

Yup still going and should keep going for a bit. Shoveling the driveway was a pain, but I'm sure my landlord will appreciate shoveling her driveway.

 

Best part is that the snow should linger through the weekend at least.

[TT-SEA]

Yup still going and should keep going for a bit. Shoveling the driveway was a pain, but I'm sure my landlord will appreciate shoveling her driveway.

 

Best part is that the snow should linger through the weekend at least.

 

 

Yeah I saw that... highs in the upper 20s and lows in the single digits with all that snow on the ground.     

[Phil]

Wake me up when December ends.

 

Literally a small galaxy setting up shop in the GOA as forcing leaves the IO. The next 5-7 weeks are gonna be loltastic.

[TT-SEA]

Wake me up when December ends.

 

Literally a small galaxy setting up shop in the GOA as forcing leaves the IO. The next 5-7 weeks are gonna be loltastic.

 

 

Is that a wet pattern for us?   

[bainbridgekid]

Wake me up when December ends.

 

Literally a small galaxy setting up shop in the GOA as forcing leaves the IO. The next 5-7 weeks are gonna be loltastic.

Long range GFS does have a profound lack of cold air anywhere in North America. Not even Northern Canada is cold.

[bainbridgekid]

Tons of scenes like this today on Bainbridge. Quite a few roads still closed.

 

https://twitter.com/bainbridgefire

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Tons of scenes like this today on Bainbridge. Quite a few roads still closed.

 

https://twitter.com/bainbridgefire

 

 

 

Still foggy here.   Fascinating how much of a difference it makes to have some hills in the way.

[bainbridgekid]

Still foggy here.   Fascinating how much of a difference it makes to have some hills in the way.

It's amazing.

 

It was pretty breezy today in Seattle, but I never would have imagined the kind of damage Bainbridge and Kitsap had. 50 mph North gusts do a lot of harm to areas that only get strong North winds once every few years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clearing line passing through the metro area finally.

[Phil]

Is that a wet pattern for us?

Yeah, it is.

[DareDuck]

Quick question for those that may know. Can't trust the radar returns out here but they are weakening. Infared shows cold cloud tops similar to earlier today. Should snow continue? I can't tell if it will stop any time now or continue for an hour or two.

[Phil]

Long range GFS does have a profound lack of cold air anywhere in North America. Not even Northern Canada is cold.

Yup, pretty easy to see why, too. Here's the 12z EPS mean geopotential height anomaly for days 11-15. That's ugly looking, and very reminiscent of December 2006.

 

Windstorm pattern for you guys?