crf450ish Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I would think frost stuck around there all the time when the eastern part of the state gets under a solid inversion like now.Well the cloud cover all day today also helped temps not rise more then 2 degrees. They didnt rise above 2 degrees between 6am and 4pm at least.... I am still shocked as this is my first winter here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Well the cloud cover all day today also helped temps not rise more then 2 degrees. They didnt rise above 2 degrees between 6am and 4pm at least.... I am still shocked as this is my first winter here. Ahhh... I see. I think that is really normal over there in an inversion situation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Tomorrow s high temps will be interesting to watch. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 32 at SEA at 4pm. I'm officially impressed. Are you familiar with low, strong, fog inversions? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Heavy freezing fog is one of the cool things that happens over there. Sometimes the trees got flocked with a half inch of that stuff and it's quite pretty. I suppose they could get ice fog over there on occasional also. That is when the moisture is frozen in the air as opposed to freezing when it contacts a surface.Why doesn't gravity take over and the frozen moisture fall to the ground? I'm afraid I don't fully understand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Olympia was warmer today. 41 after 35 yesterday. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 As for the comment this year hasn't set it itself aside from last year...I really don't how last November and this one could be much different when looking at the big picture. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Why doesn't gravity take over and the frozen moisture fall to the ground? I'm afraid I don't fully understand. It does fall slowly as a very fine snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Are you familiar with low, strong, fog inversions? I'm just saying. 32 for SEA at 4pm is impressive for this time of year regardless of the cause. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Considering the person constantly harassing you NEVER extrapolates beyond the models or only sees what he wants to see, I can understand why he's upset.This post gave me a good laugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Are you familiar with low, strong, fog inversions?Yeah, my mod preview comment a few weeks ago was just bizarre and completely unjustified. Stay tuned! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006. Pretty much the same pattern. It certainly looks very similar there, from a large-scale perspective. May not turn out so similar in the details, though. Which of course is usually the case. The pattern may indeed turn to the traditional firehose zonal pattern later in the month, but for now there look to be some signs of split flow in there, moreso than most really zonal months. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Seahawks defense is average at best now... maybe below average. I don't trust them to actually stop anyone when it matters. No fire now. Offense won it today. Career day for Wilson. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Are you familiar with low, strong, fog inversions? Not many produce late afternoon temps of 32 at SEA in November. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006. Pretty much the same pattern. image.png image.png I like it! I'm not sure why everyone is so down on this analog. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I like it! I'm not sure why everyone is so down on this analog. I'm not sure everyone is? I'm guessing you're just going off the people saying the current cold snap might be the coldest temps of the winter. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house. EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my post As odd as it may seem the coldest temps with an inversion are very near the top of it. I've seen many examples of that around here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image.jpeg Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house. EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my postGorgeous!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm not sure everyone is? I'm guessing you're just going off the people saying the current cold snap might be the coldest temps of the winter. I was just commenting on how Tim is fighting it and your comment saying it's not likely to pan out. Then there's Jesse's inexplicable pessimism right now. In actuality the weather this month was quite 2006 like with all of the flooding and windstorms earlier. The Puget Sound area escaped any big windstorms, but it still got windy and Spokane got blasted. Fine details will always be different of course. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Dense freezing fog and 30 at SEA at 5pm. That's colder than it is here. It takes perfect conditions for that to happen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Not many produce late afternoon temps of 32 at SEA in November.True. Very late November though. Just about to the lowest sun angle here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Lots of bickering on here like little girls. Wtf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I like it! I'm not sure why everyone is so down on this analog.Not down. Might be a good match. But this month has been a very muted version of November 2006. Even if the pattern is the same. Maybe 2006 had something to make it more extreme. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 It's funny and understandable how everyone desperately wants to make this 2006 revisited. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I was just commenting on how Tim is fighting it and your comment saying it's not likely to pan out. Then there's Jesse's inexplicable pessimism right now. In actuality the weather this month was quite 2006 like with all of the flooding and windstorms earlier. The Puget Sound area escaped any big windstorms, but it still got windy and Spokane got blasted. Fine details will always be different of course. Nah, I think 2006-07 is as good an analog as there is. I was just saying the upcoming pattern doesn't look traditionally zonal to me, as that almost always features a firehose into the west coast. Plus there's the cutoff feature in the inland west, which is more of an element of split flow and very much a Nino feature. But the models aren't in total agreement as to how the upcoming pattern will develop over the lower 48...I'm just going by the latest Euro trends. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The GFS ensemble continues to insist there's a good chance of it getting chilly during week two. I'm not sure why you're so negative right now.We'll see what happens. Obviously I hope I am wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 32 at SEA at 4pm. I'm officially impressed.That is really impressive for this set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Holy crap. SEA is now down to 28 with dense freezing fog. A 4 degree drop in an hour and half with soup is pretty impressive. No question these conditions are going to cause major problems at the airport. That gives them a 35-28 day which is a -11 departure (minus 10 with the voodoo math the NWS uses). 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Holy crap. SEA is now down to 28 with dense freezing fog. A 4 degree drop in an hour and half with soup is pretty impressive. No question these conditions are going to cause major problems at the airport. That gives them a 35-28 day which is a -11 departure (minus 10 with the voodoo math the NWS uses).Mathematical law was written specifically to aggravate weather weenies. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Departures in W. Oregon today: EUG -12SLE -10PDX - 8 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Departures in W. Oregon today: EUG -12SLE -10PDX - 8We might have reached the depth of the 2015-16 winter! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Nah, I think 2006-07 is as good an analog as there is. I was just saying the upcoming pattern doesn't look traditionally zonal to me, as that almost always features a firehose into the west coast. Plus there's the cutoff feature in the inland west, which is more of an element of split flow and very much a Nino feature. But the models aren't in total agreement as to how the upcoming pattern will develop over the lower 48...I'm just going by the latest Euro trends.I'm guessing we have different takes on what "zonal flow" constitutes. I'm speaking strictly in terms of wave amplitude across the Western Hemisphere. Obviously no two years will have the exact same synoptic configurations, but that's fairly obvious and largely irrelevant. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The inversion was apparent this evening from the overlook at Silver Falls. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Mathematical law was written specifically to aggravate weather weenies. For some reason the NWS rounds up with current daily averages and rounds down for normal which always skews the departures 1 degree high unless the high and low are both even or both odd numbers. It's also not a factor if the normals are either both even or both odd. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Mathematical law was written specifically to aggravate weather weenies.I'm probably the biggest weenie of them all! I moved to a place where the weather is more to my liking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Upper North Falls. I did not venture past this point as the trail was a solid sheet of ice. The North Falls parking area Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 For some reason the NWS rounds up with current daily averages and rounds down for normal which always skews the departures 1 degree high unless the high and low are both even or both odd numbers. It's also not a factor if the normals are either both even or both odd.Jim, it's math. Do you honestly think they do it to mess with you? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Amazingly this will go down as the first month SEA is going to have a monthly average below 45 degrees since Feb 2014. That stat is so ludicrous I can't believe it really went that long. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Jim, it's math. Do you honestly think they do it to mess with you? They need to apply the same rules to both sets of numbers. That's all I'm saying. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm probably the biggest weenie of them all! I moved to a place where the weather is more to my liking! That doesn't make you a weenie. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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