Perhaps with long range, as in months out forecasts, but I've never seen evidence in cases like this. The fact is that though we saw some improvements in the mid-January period a week or so ago, we never saw the models latching onto the kind of consistent signal we are seeing now. This is the kind of signal we saw in 2023 and 2019.

I know others have mentioned this but i'm pretty convinced that any long range forecast is just pulling historical trends associated with ENSO and not really factoring in any meaningful present condition or trend.

Sunny and a very mild 46 here at this time. I went for a walk and the pond to the west of me is now ice free. That is unusual for late December.

Euro AIFS much further south with 12z run compared to 06z run. 06z 12z

Here is the NWS GRR discussion for the possible system for next Monday ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN A PLETHORA OF OUTCOMES FOR A POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT NEXT MONDAY, WITH THE BIG QUESTION BEING HOW QUICKLY WILL UPPER TROUGHING MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE OR CLOSED LOW TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE ALSO PHASING IMPLICATIONS WITH HOW DEEP ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE RANGE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR A SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT TO IMPACT LOWER MICHIGAN, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL. LOOKING AT THE 00Z GRAND ENSEMBLE (ECE/GEFS/CMC), 40% OF THE MEMBERSHIP HAS SNOWFALL OF 2" OR MORE AND 10% HAS 6" OR MORE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FROM THE 12Z RUNS INDICATES THE GEFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW TRACK THAN THE ECE AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AT THIS POINT AN IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION, BUT WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM TRENDS WITH TIME. This looks like a central Indian/Ohio system at this time.