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ENSO thread

ENSO Sun QBO KW MJO etc

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#51
Chris

Posted 30 May 2014 - 01:04 PM

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No strengthening on El Nino this week

 

trades_30_5_S_5_N.png



#52
richard mann

Posted 30 May 2014 - 02:03 PM

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No strengthening ... this week .....

 
.. 5°S5°N, 850mb Zonal Wind / Wind Anomalies, wise, leastwise. 
 
Main Sea-Surface Temperatures / Temp. Anomalies wise, main focus region, not so much the case. 
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.29.2014.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html
 
Then, there's that .. Cat. 3 (maybe Cat. 4.), Pacific sector "hurricane" having developed, same general area. 
 
Earliest on record.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/534-the-tropics-early-pacific-disturbance/


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#53
richard mann

Posted 01 June 2014 - 06:53 PM

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(.. cross reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=28310


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#54
snow_wizard

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:38 PM

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Big big problems for this possible El Nino right now. It would take some kind of a miracle for us to have anything beyond a weak Nino by winter.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#55
richard mann

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:49 PM

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Big big problems for this possible El Nino right now. It would take some kind of a miracle for us to have anything beyond a weak Nino by winter.

 

.. Not much here Jim. Had you had something more specific in mind. ?


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#56
Chris

Posted 03 June 2014 - 12:43 PM

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There's another KW in the WPAC, but yes I'll agree that a super-niño was never on the table. An El Niño of some sort is likely though, simply based on the Solar-QBO-in internal-resonance harmonics.

...

A weak or moderate El Niño is most likely, IMO. Kind of hard to deny it given the steady eastward migration of the Walker Cell since 2012. This was a long time in the making

 

 

Phil, Do you have a link that you use for monitoring Walker Cell migration?

 

walker.jpg



#57
Chris

Posted 09 June 2014 - 02:00 PM

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Ventrice has updated his Nino prediction.

 

http://www.wsi.com/b...ually-imminent/



#58
Chris

Posted 30 June 2014 - 09:04 AM

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wind_5_S_5_N.png

 

 

Not a favorable Nino pattern



#59
Phil

Posted 30 June 2014 - 11:24 AM

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OHC is about to dip negative as well..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#60
richard mann

Posted 30 June 2014 - 06:19 PM

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-
With prefacing this following below with saying that my intention here with what I've pointed to not having been meant to either whether discount or support, whatever's been said, by whomever, regarding whether the similarity, or otherwise looked at, potential, one set compared to the other, where looking at this current Nino[s] development set beside that of the Nino of 1997, … 
 
The main patten configurationor, pattering, warmer to colder areas anomalouswhere looking at the current general picture .. along side that having been in effect for near to this same date back in 1997, shows some basic both similarities, together with also, differences.
 
The differences more specific, that I'm noting, are mainly through S. hem., together with where also looking at the Western equatorial, or even more tropical, Pacific. 
 
This with looking at the S. hem. more specifically, more in particularly, a fairly strong distinctiongenerally cooler temperatures, compared to quite a bit coolerbetween the two years, where looking at the Tropical Atlantic South. Mainly more eastward. 
 
970628_ssta_t-35-41d.gif
 (Click for main fuller-size image set.)
 
Of important note here, … 
 
I can't find the specific reference. But right around the time that main formatting of these images was put into effect, there had been a note about the sensors used earlier to gather these readings, had been off significantly. Warmer with the earlier graphic I think but can't remember, so I can't be sure. Perhaps someone else know the what adjustment had been more in fact. 


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#61
Chris

Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:48 PM

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OHC is about to dip negative as well..

 

ocean_heat.gif



#62
Chris

Posted 02 July 2014 - 03:07 PM

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ENSO looks to cool further this week.

 

wind_5_S_5_N.png



#63
Chris

Posted 08 July 2014 - 10:09 AM

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So much for SUPER NINO

 

nino34.png



#64
richard mann

Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:26 PM

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So much for SUPER NINO.

 
.. Some basic perspective where considering the question either way here following accessible Chris.
 
 General reference. 
 
 "Jason 2's" graphics bi-monthly, to the present. And a video generated by NASA back in May when the speculation had been high where considering the potential for a more dynamic Nino.
 
https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/
ScienceCasts: El Niño - Is 2014 the New 1997 ?

These focuses together with more generally, the CPC's main more current status discussion and synopsis. With also a fairly well done and informative run-down, also from the CPC, as to what's going on looked at more at this point, more academically.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
 
@ http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/en-so


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#65
Chris

Posted 28 July 2014 - 05:03 PM

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Nino 3.4 down to -0.1

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for



#66
richard mann

Posted 01 August 2014 - 12:05 PM

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-

 

Granted certainly, SSTsalong with temps more sub-surfacehave trended downward through and where looking at all of the different main ENSO more regional "indexes", since and where comparing them with the way they had been more back in later April and into May. Even substantially where looking at some. 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa...ht.5.8.2014.gif

 

But with this, and where looking more specifically at SST anomalies, also certainly, the broader Eastern Pacific where looked at North to South, has remained significantly warm set with this idea. 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.../anim_full.html


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#67
Chris

Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:17 AM

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Numerous tropical storms now in the Central Pacific will likely mix things up a bit, possibly even another Kelvin wave.



#68
Chris

Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:22 AM

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trades_S_5_N.png

 

Not much Nino strengthening here.


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#69
richard mann

Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:17 PM

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Remember those plunging SSTs and the anomalously strong high pressure of the coast in June?   I think I mentioned at the time that it would likely be temporary based on history.   :)      
 
anomnight.8.4.2014.gif
 
 
Also notice .. pockets of colder than normal SSTs in the Nino regions. Neutral is much better overall.

 
My view is Tim, that these pockets of colder water are indicative of that having circulated up from the South. Where it's of course the dead of winter. And so, with this, there certainly being some room for their slacking back some as time moves forward.  @


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#70
richard mann

Posted 06 August 2014 - 01:05 AM

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In line with what I've said above more recently regarding the basic theme hereeither whether or both more generally or in response more to something someone else has, ...
 
posts nos. 64, 66, and 69 here just above.
 
And more chiefly where considering colder sea-surfure current waters that I've pointed with having suggested their level of influence on the current general "complexion" of and where considering ENSO's broader potential at this point, ...
 
.. Set beside the more typically referred to SST anomalies, there's (there are.) also the main SSTs.
 
For general reference sake, animated where looking back over the past 6 months or so, accessible here below, ...
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...night/anim.html
 
.. and able to be compared with where set beside, the animation similar focusing on SSTAs that I've posted a link to above within my post, no. 66.
 
Basically, this animation works perhaps a bit better to show this current's, more current influence.


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#71
tim the weatherman

Posted 06 August 2014 - 12:46 PM

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also the atmosphere is starting to cooperate so the weak el nino might happen.


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#72
Phil

Posted 07 August 2014 - 03:38 AM

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Atmosphere cooperating with the Niño it forced in the first place? Say it ain't so? :)

The Niño state is the atmospheric state..problem is there is intra-seasonal variability involved..essentially subharmonics that tune according to both external forcings and internal resonance(s). Looking at the reason for the Niño state and the subharmonics (that will either amplify or dampen it) usually gives a ballpark estimate of systematic amplitude
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#73
tim the weatherman

Posted 07 August 2014 - 07:37 AM

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There will be some warming over the next few months but not enough for a weak El Niño.
(source accuweatherfourms)



#74
tim the weatherman

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:14 PM

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There is no longer a chance for an El Niño developing this summer. Not only did they delay their forecast El Niño to a period where their forecasting ability is almost zero, the chances where reduced 15 percent. Please do not forget the criterion for an El Niño which I have already posted.
 



#75
Phil

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:57 PM

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Que the jaws music:

640.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#76
Dendrite

Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:04 PM

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Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you?  Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature?  I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months.  The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together.


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#77
Phil

Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:12 PM

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The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling caused by the Niño circulation. Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#78
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:34 PM

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Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures.

 

Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor.  ... (?)

 

"Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition. 


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#79
Phil

Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:43 PM

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Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor. ... (?)

"Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition.

"representing" ? .. (representative.), indicative, more .. presumably.


The graphics depict a Kelvin Wave crossing the Pacific...leads to downwelling & an eastward propagation of the WPAC warm pool...it is evidence that the waters are responding to the earlier WWB activity
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#80
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:50 PM

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.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ?


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#81
Phil

Posted 14 August 2014 - 03:42 PM

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.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ?


The latter. The signatures associated with KW activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#82
Chris

Posted 14 August 2014 - 04:26 PM

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Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you?  Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature?  I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months.  The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together.

 

The trade winds, or lack of, have the most influence. 

 

trades_S_5_N.png



#83
Chris

Posted 14 August 2014 - 04:29 PM

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-

.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ?

 

 

Mike Ventrice on kelvin waves:   http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2635


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#84
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 07:08 PM

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... the signatures associated with K[elvin]]W[ave] activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature.


The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling ... [associated with the current Kelvin Wave activity].

 
.... then. Correct. (?)  @  @

 "Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone.  (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. )
 
And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.?


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#85
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 07:24 PM

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Mike Ventrice on kelvin waves:   http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2635

 
.. Appreciate the link Chris. Very concise and informative.

Hopefully, if Derrick ("Black Hole") gets his "Meteorology 101" thread started up again, he can include this.

 Of course a bit more climatological.


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#86
Phil

Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:49 PM

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.... then. Correct. (?) @ @

"Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone. (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. )

And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.?


Yes.

I'm referencing the broad consensus in the peer-reviewed literature regarding the nature of oceanic kelvin waves.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#87
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 10:21 PM

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.. Great. (As in, "wonderful".)
 
This means that, .. if, with the idea that where considering something that I'd identified instead as being what you'd meant to suggest; that idea's, being well appreciated to be the case, by peers of those who know better. 
 
.. "Nino circulation", meaning the "activity" of "Kevin Waves".   Sorta.
 
Totally clear.  (Only too glad, just to have been part of the "process".)


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#88
richard mann

Posted 14 August 2014 - 10:34 PM

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"Cool" at this point, out at "fisherman's" "point".  (... where looking at the Galapagos Islands.)
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.8.14.2014.gif
 
.. If with the "sea-surface" "current" "circulation" moving up from the south along the greater South American coast, toward "it"fairly cold to this pointappearing to be jostling somewhat.

http://www.ospo.noaa.../anim_full.html
http://www.ospo.noaa...night/anim.html

 

Still winter "down south", of course. 


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#89
Phil

Posted 24 August 2014 - 08:57 AM

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http://www.cpc.ncep....e/wkxzteq.shtml
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#90
Black Hole

Posted 24 August 2014 - 01:09 PM

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Looks like a good deal of strengthening will be occurring in the near future.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#91
richard mann

Posted 26 August 2014 - 01:45 PM

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Late August / their "February" .. south of the equator, the main question still of course at this point more basic with following the main more anomalistic SSTs returns generated, … 
 
Just what will those fisherman from Ecuador and Peru actually see, nearer to Christmastime / their later "June", main "current" circulation wise, just off shore of where they are. ?
 
At this point, very cold water is still pervading more close in, near to and surrounding the Galapagos Islands, nearer the equator. Of course lending to good to excellent fishing, with its being the most conducive and best able to support a more abundance source of food for fish (Along with of course, all sea-life together with what feeds on it.). But will the current having delivered this colder water up from the South dwindle off, more gradually, or more abruptly, with the on set up the warmer season south of the equator. ?
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.8.25.2014.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.../anim_full.html
 

 
.. Another, perspective.   http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=31696


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#92
iFred

Posted 29 August 2014 - 09:44 PM

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So where are we at with the Nino, and where should we be by November?



#93
richard mann

Posted 29 August 2014 - 10:51 PM

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So where are we at with the Nino, and where should we be by November?

 

... Plenty of tropical moisture generation, and so precip. for the West, is probably a pretty safe bet. 


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#94
primetime

Posted 06 September 2014 - 05:17 AM

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Phil - wanted to see if you could share any ideas on where with are with the MJO and AAM.  Looks to me like we are coming up on a period where the MJO is going to be more favorable for westerly anomalies (velocity potential / OLR)....but I'm not sure



#95
richard mann

Posted 06 September 2014 - 11:57 AM

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(.. cross reference.)

 

http://theweatherfor...season/?p=32348


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#96
richard mann

Posted 15 September 2014 - 11:30 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)

 

Analog points more elemental, this point where compared with 1976-77. More over-all pattern than ENSO alone.

 

http://theweatherfor...winter/?p=33096

http://theweatherfor...winter/?p=33100  (The post following.)


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#97
Chris

Posted 17 September 2014 - 02:55 PM

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An El Nino favorable trade wind pattern forecast for the upcoming week.

trades.png



#98
Phil

Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:00 PM

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You mean unfavorable?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#99
richard mann

Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:24 PM

richard mann

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[Do] You. ?


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#100
The Snowman

Posted 27 September 2014 - 09:07 PM

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SOI continues to be sustained in El Nino values, only recently sustained below the -8 threshold.

 

soi30.png


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