Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

August 2017 Observations and Discussion

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 23 July 2017 - 06:20 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Can you believe we are about to enter the last month of met Summer???  Seems like this year has flew on by way to quickly.  What can be expected this month??  As the jet stream reaches it's weakest point over the next couple weeks, will we be experiencing a warm or cool pattern to open up the month??  Let's dive in.

 

Over the past few days, both GEFS/EPS have been trending rather cool and a bit autumnal to close out July and open August.  Overnight run of the 00z Euro carves out a big trough over the central CONUS by Aug 1st.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

 

 

 

06z GEFS keep the amplified pattern going through the first week of August...

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png

 

 

CFSv2 insisting a cooler than normal them through at least the last week of August!  Is the hottest air of the season about to say Sayonara???

 

 

Week 3...

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_3.png

 

 

Week 4...

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

 

 

By the time we get out towards the end of August, I think we will see the warmth come back for a bit but with wetter conditions just like we have been seeing all season long.  2-3 weeks or rain, then nature shuts it off for about a couple weeks.  Some places have been more favorable with the rain (aka Lakes/Midwest), however, I think this region will have time to dry out for a longer period which will be well-timed.

 

 

 



#2
Tom

Posted 23 July 2017 - 06:49 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z EPS temp mean for week 2...

 

DFapUz7W0AE9yHZ.jpg



#3
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 July 2017 - 07:24 AM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Wouldn't mind a similar August to last year either. Below to at normal temps with plentiful rain.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#4
Tom

Posted 23 July 2017 - 11:29 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Haven't seen a pattern like this at all during June/July...would be welcomed in my book...dry and cool... ;)

 

610temp.new.gif

 

814temp.new.gif

 

 

WK34temp.gif



#5
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 July 2017 - 01:14 AM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2232 posts
I'm definitely looking forward to some more refreshing air in the next few weeks.

#6
Niko

Posted 26 July 2017 - 03:13 PM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3432 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Hopefully, August will bring some needed rainfall and some loud boomers. Thunderstorms are fun ta track and watch them unfold into big cells and head towards your way. I like especially when skies start to darken and winds start picking up.


  • iFred and jaster220 like this

#7
Niko

Posted 26 July 2017 - 05:16 PM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3432 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Wow, cant believe its August already. :o



#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 July 2017 - 04:40 AM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Hopefully, August will bring some needed rainfall and some loud boomers. Thunderstorms are fun ta track and watch them unfold into big cells and head towards your way. I like especially when skies start to darken and winds start picking up.

Screw that, let's root for an August blizzard  :D


  • Niko and jaster220 like this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#9
jaster220

Posted 27 July 2017 - 06:09 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3434 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Screw that, let's root for an August blizzard  :D

 

:lol: :D :D


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#10
Tom

Posted 28 July 2017 - 04:58 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The opening week of August will open with BN temps and drier wx except for maybe a chance of storms Wed/Thu period as a cold front sweeps through the region again.  Another top notch period of weather is expected next Thu-Sun with another trough swinging through ushering more pleasant conditions.

 

 

DF0g3BMU0AE-ACE.jpg

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

 

 

I'm hearing the latest Euro weeklies are cool/wet for most of the subforum for Week 2-5.  If we can do that, sign me up!

 

Here's the latest CFSv2 run for August...keeps trending for more widespread cool for most of the central CONUS.

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20170723.201708.gif



#11
Tom

Posted 28 July 2017 - 05:18 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

According to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, it should turn wet for the second half of this month.  TBH, I don't mind an extended drier period around these parts.  I've enjoyed plenty of Monsoonal storms in AZ over the last couple few weeks this month.  Need those members out farther west in the Plains to get some much needed rainfall.

 

How many more 90's will ORD have for the rest of this year???  I think the day's are numbered if the cooler look transpires.


  • jaster220 likes this

#12
jaster220

Posted 28 July 2017 - 07:05 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3434 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

 

Tom said: Another top notch period of weather is expected next Thu-Sun with another trough swinging through ushering more pleasant conditions.

 

This one ain't bad neither bud

 

 

PS - Good to have you back in the Midwest ;)


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#13
Tom

Posted 28 July 2017 - 07:33 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

This one ain't bad neither bud

20170728 KBEH Outlook.PNG

PS - Good to have you back in the Midwest ;)


Bingo! Yup, stellar wx this weekend. Guess I had a timely trip back home. I'm heading on LM tomorrow for their annual boat party in Chicago. Looking forward to it. Thankfully, the Play Penn won't be effected by the wave action from the NE winds. Although, I'm sure the ride in a and out will be rocking on the 40 footer!

#14
james1976

Posted 28 July 2017 - 12:03 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3389 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
I like how those maps are looking

#15
Tom

Posted 28 July 2017 - 12:29 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I like how those maps are looking

Impressive cool pool for the month of August...both Euro and GEFS agree...

 

 

DF2AdbYW0AEwCpg.jpg

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png



#16
Tom

Posted 28 July 2017 - 12:33 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

-NAO block increasingly showing signs it may provide an early Autumn tease for many????

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png


  • gabel23 likes this

#17
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 July 2017 - 05:20 PM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

early Autumn

Lincoln's earliest record snowfall is September 28, just saying...  :P


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#18
iFred

Posted 28 July 2017 - 07:30 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 2241 posts
  • LocationPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania.

Still in Dallas where I saw a high of 104º.


  • jaster220 likes this

#19
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 July 2017 - 08:34 PM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Tomorrow should be the last brutal day here in Houston for a while, with heat indexes up to 110°. Also the last chance we'll have for a while to break 100°. It'd be awesome if we went into August not having broken 100 yet!
  • iFred likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#20
Tom

Posted 29 July 2017 - 04:37 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z EPS...woah, that's cool...esp for those in the Plains where they were torching...

 

 

 

DF5ipQcUQAIfmbL.jpg


  • gabel23 likes this

#21
Tom

Posted 29 July 2017 - 04:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Now, that is a real taste of Autumn if this transpires...Northwoods DP's down into the 30's???  The smell of wood burning in the neighborhoods will be a common thing I'm sure.

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_27.png

 

 

Widespread chill next weekend, esp Sat night...NE folks will be breaking out the long sleeves after experiencing torching heat for so long. 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_35.png



#22
gabel23

Posted 29 July 2017 - 07:33 AM

gabel23

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 949 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Now, that is a real taste of Autumn if this transpires...Northwoods DP's down into the 30's???  The smell of wood burning in the neighborhoods will be a common thing I'm sure.

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_27.png

 

 

Widespread chill next weekend, esp Sat night...NE folks will be breaking out the long sleeves after experiencing torching heat for so long. 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_35.png

I love the looks of that Tom, bring it on! I would love a nice cool down, that would get me into football mood!! It will be here before we know it, nothing better than a cool crisp fall night. 


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#23
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 05:56 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Models are converging on a rare, summer time GL's cutter???  Both EPS/GEFS are jumping on the idea which looks to likely usher in the season's coolest temps and a real taste of Autumn.  Some places may not get out of the 60's for the most part over the Lakes region under overcast/rainy skies.  There may be a few spots up towards the Northwoods that could end up in the upper 50's (debatable) during the day on Thu/Fri!

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_23.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_19.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_23.png


  • jaster220 likes this

#24
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 06:34 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Impressive cool to rule the central AG belt!

 

DF7ddJ5XsAM9qt8.jpg



#25
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 08:32 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Record cold highs on the table for Thu & Fri???  Some 15-20F below normal temps starting to consistently show up on the GFS and Euro.

 

gfs_T2ma_ncus_19.png

 

gfs_T2ma_ncus_22.png



#26
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Continuous NW Flow and frontal systems will spark a wetter pattern for those who need the rain in the Plains/Midwest...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png



#27
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:46 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I'm especially intrigued that the models are showing a strong summer time SLP spinning up near the upper GL's...

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_6.png

 

 

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_6.png



#28
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 11:06 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Today's 12z Euro was rather interesting.  I counted 3 storm systems that track from the Plains into the GL's/OV region.  It's quite rare to see 1, but 3 systems???

 

 

Here is the 2nd weaker system showing up rounding the base of the established trough...

 

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

 

 

 

On it's heels, another stronger storm coming out of the southern plains...blocking HP's to the north are reminiscent to an Autumn/Winter pattern...

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png



#29
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 July 2017 - 11:57 AM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

DPs near or even below 40 possible for parts of Eastern NE Friday and Saturday?!

Attached Files


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#30
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 12:18 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

DPs near or even below 40 possible for parts of Eastern NE Friday and Saturday?!

Rather interesting cool down and pattern over the next 1-2 weeks I'd say.  I wouldn't mind seeing this continue into September, but give me a good Labor Day weekend and I'd be content.


  • jaster220 likes this

#31
Tom

Posted 30 July 2017 - 12:47 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I haven't talked about the East Asian Typhoon theory for quite a while, however, in the western Pacific another major Typhoon is forecast to churn off the coast of Japan for a few days before turning north and potentially slamming into Japan.  Both the GFS/EURO are showing this super Typhoon in the Day 8-10 period.  FWIW, it's something to watch as we head towards the middle of August.

 

 

Day 8...

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_9.png

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_10.png



#32
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 July 2017 - 02:34 PM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2232 posts
There are a lot of fall-like things that seem to be happening with the weather. I wouldn't mind an early autumn and a cold October/November. Genuinely thinking that may be where we're headed.

Seems like an overall new pattern getting started especially with the Pacific starting to wake back up a little as well.
  • jaster220 and LNK_Weather like this

#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 July 2017 - 05:04 PM

LNK_Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 789 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

There are a lot of fall-like things that seem to be happening with the weather. I wouldn't mind an early autumn and a cold October/November. Genuinely thinking that may be where we're headed.

Seems like an overall new pattern getting started especially with the Pacific starting to wake back up a little as well.

Lincoln hasn't had a measurable October snowfall since 2009. This would be a good year to change that.


  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#34
james1976

Posted 30 July 2017 - 06:02 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3389 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Love the way the pattern is shaping up. Local met has 70s thu-sun. Looks rainy thu-fri!



#35
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 July 2017 - 06:16 PM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2232 posts

Lincoln hasn't had a measurable October snowfall since 2009. This would be a good year to change that.


I'm sure October snows are a nice bonus up there when they happen. Would be like when it snows in November here.

I'm just ready for fall. It's going to be beautiful around here this year for the first time in 3 or 4 years.
  • jaster220 likes this

#36
Tom

Posted 31 July 2017 - 04:52 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Here is the last July monthlies run of the CFSv2 run for the month of Aug which shows a trough smack dab in the middle of the nation with an amplified ridge along the west coast.  This is interesting, bc it doesn't necessarily fit the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  August is typically a hard month to forecast using this method of forecasting due to the jet stream reaching it's weakest intensity.  We'll see how this transpires.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20170731.201708.gif

 

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201708.gif


  • OKwx2k4 likes this

#37
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 July 2017 - 07:20 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 573 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest.

Attached Files


  • Tom likes this

#38
Tom

Posted 31 July 2017 - 07:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest.

12z GFS takes your area right over the defo zone!  A taste of Autumn for a day or two and looks to provide a good soaking.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_15.png



#39
Tom

Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:10 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

CanSIPS agreeing with the CFSv2 that a lot of us have probably seen the last of any sustained heat this summer.  Haven't seen a trough like this for a monthly outlook in many many months.

 

DGF_mwPUIAA33QN.jpg



#40
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2017 - 04:11 PM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2232 posts
Cooldown and trough are probably going to be a response to cooling enso. I don't see a temp above 85 in my forecast through next weekend. :)
  • jaster220 likes this

#41
Tom

Posted 31 July 2017 - 04:48 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Cooldown and trough are probably going to be a response to cooling enso. I don't see a temp above 85 in my forecast through next weekend. :)

Yup, same here....after Thursday, I see a lot of 70's to near 80F thru the next 10 days.


  • jaster220 likes this

#42
Tom

Posted 31 July 2017 - 04:50 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

CPC's take on August...

 

 



#43
bud2380

Posted 31 July 2017 - 06:05 PM

bud2380

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 923 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues

The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest.



#44
james1976

Posted 31 July 2017 - 08:49 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3389 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues

Bud, did Schnack get rid of the chat on his blog?

#45
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 August 2017 - 02:49 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 573 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues


It's not just the GFS showing the unusually cold temps. The Canadian, NAM and several other cams are also showing 2m temps in the 50s. Forecasted high on Thurs is 61 here. Pretty impressive for the 'dog days of summer'.

#46
james1976

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:50 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3389 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
DMX has upper 60s far N IA so i could see it struggling to reach 60 in the defo zone. Rather intriguing storm system for early Aug.
  • jaster220 likes this

#47
james1976

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:05 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3389 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Welcome to August! Last month of met Summer. We're losing daylight everyday. Looking forward to bonfire season!
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#48
jaster220

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:32 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3434 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

One of the Augusts with cold temps in SMI was 1982. And in typical fashion, it was really chilly that autumn, kinda the "darkest before the dawn", "coldest before the heat" syndrome going on. Ofc, that was looking like a frigid winter might be in store, but instead lead to the Super-Nino of 82/83. Premature (ultra cold) autumns can be legit tell-tales of winter to come, or they can be a "head fake" like in '82, and again in '97 for SMI. Some of the nice autumns have led to great winters, so I'm not keen on the premature cold pattern myself.


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#49
westMJim

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:26 AM

westMJim

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 658 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

In looking back at July 2017. At Grand Rapids we ended July with the mean temperature right at average! There was only one day of 90° or better and only 10 days of 85° or better, But it was rather dry as only 1.12” of rain fell at the airport. This was the driest July at Grand Rapids since 1976 when Grand Rapids only received 0.81” of rain


  • jaster220 likes this

#50
Tom

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:03 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14257 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

A tale of 2 seasons...Thursday will feature a summery day with warm/humid conditions...

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_44.png

 

 

 

By Friday afternoon, it will feel like Autumn with a blustery NNW wind flow and cloudy conditions with temps struggling to get out of the 60's!

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_53.png


  • St Paul Storm likes this