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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

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#51
Illinois_WX

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:58 AM

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I feel way out of the loop right now, but hasn't the GFS consistently showed 6"+ for a lot of us around like hr 114?


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#52
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:00 AM

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Friday's event is a thread the needle type system on the GFS.  Looks like about 50-75 mile swath is all.  Saturday is looking to be decent for Nebraska, but then either dries out or heads south from there.  



#53
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:07 AM

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GFS good hit for St. Louis and northern Missouri for the weekend system.  But considering how bad it seems to be handling the Thursday event, I'm not putting much into it right now.  



#54
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:08 AM

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Friday's event is a thread the needle type system on the GFS.  Looks like about 50-75 mile swath is all.  Saturday is looking to be decent for Nebraska, but then either dries out or heads south from there.  

The Sat/Sun showing the CO Low coming out into the Plains is trending better for those out in the Plains/S MW....its trending better with a High over Low and could be a decent NYE storm system to track.  However, we may be to far north for this one.


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#55
Tony

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:10 AM

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Euro was a little farther north with this system. Even if we get missed the LES looks to be the real deal.

#56
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:12 AM

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Euro was a little farther north with this system. Even if we get missed the LES looks to be the real deal.

I'm considering starting a separate thread for the weekend system.  It's been on my calendar for a couple weeks and I hope the trends are positive today with the rest of the models.  



#57
Tony

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:14 AM

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I'm considering starting a separate thread for the weekend system. It's been on my calendar for a couple weeks and I hope the trends are positive today with the rest of the models.

Good idea as the system looks to lay down several inches

#58
East Dubzz

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Recent trends seems to fit in perfectly with this winter. And last. I’d rather just have it back into the 50s so I can hit the links.
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#59
Tony

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Most of these waves have trended north lately so guessing weekend system might do the same

#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:17 AM

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I think GFS is being cuckoo for cocoa puffs for the weekend. We're not getting WSW snows from this. Or likely more than an inch, if anything.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#61
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:21 AM

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Most of these waves have trended north lately so guessing weekend system might do the same

In fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend.  I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice. 



#62
Hawkeye

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:34 AM

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Recent trends seems to fit in perfectly with this winter. And last. I’d rather just have it back into the 50s so I can hit the links.

 

Welcome back.  I haven't seen you post in a long time.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#63
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:35 AM

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12z Canadian is fantastic for the Black Hills; with almost continuous snow here from Hour 48 through Hour 120.

 

Of course the Canadian is terrible outside of 48 hours; so take it with a grain of NaCl...



#64
NEJeremy

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:43 AM

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In fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend. I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice.


Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that

#65
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:47 AM

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Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that

To be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever.
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#66
gosaints

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:48 AM

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Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that


GFS shows big hits trends to almost nothing... Then performs about as to be expected maybe over performs where meso weenie bands set up
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#67
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:52 AM

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GFS shows big hits trends to almost nothing... Then performs about as to be expected maybe over performs where meso weenie bands set up

 

The Truth always lies somewhere in the middle; in both temporal controversy & numerical weather prediction...



#68
NEJeremy

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:59 AM

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To be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever.


These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their own

#69
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 09:04 AM

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These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their own


Fair enough. Based on my ideas/thoughts with this NYE holiday system, I’m going to believe trends hold. It’s been on my mind for quite a while so I think I have a good idea of its potential.
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#70
St Paul Storm

Posted 26 December 2017 - 09:22 AM

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2-3” looking like a good bet here tomorrow night into Thursday morning....at least per the NAM, RGEM and GFS. Although super dry air and a lack of real forcing appear to be limiting factors. If we Indeed get a few inches of snow next weekend is going to be a bit colder than the current cold snap.

#71
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 09:31 AM

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12z Ukie...

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_90.png



#72
East Dubzz

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:04 AM

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Welcome back. I haven't seen you post in a long time.


Thanks! I am usually more of a winter guy, and well.... our winters have been lacking, which doesn’t help.

Plus I’m in the middle of my last year of college, so I’ve been really busy the past few months. Was hoping to get some nice storms to track over break, but I’m not too happy with what I’m seeing right now!
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#73
GDR

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:10 AM

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Attached File  3E7136CE-64F1-44B7-8A69-41281F04ADD7.png   690.68KB   5 downloads
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#74
GDR

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:12 AM

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3E7136CE-64F1-44B7-8A69-41281F04ADD7.png

. 12z through 384

#75
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:15 AM

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Tom, you may wanna consider killing 2 birds with one stone and extending the date of this thread to include the weekend system. We're talking about the weekend in here already.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#76
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Euro keeps the heavier snow well into MN again this run for Wed night/Thursday.  Looks like less than an inch here.  Friday evening's system looks stronger right now and further north than the GFS.  That one could lay down 1-3" wherever it ends up.  



#77
dubuque473

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:24 AM

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Tom, you may wanna consider killing 2 birds with one stone and extending the date of this thread to include the weekend system. We're talking about the weekend in here already.

 

DVN

 

The first issue is a Clipper system that will affect at least a
portion of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. The
GFS/GEM continue to be more bullish with QPF than the ECMWF/WRF,
which limit most of the snow to north of Interstate 80. Not going to
discount the GFS/GEM yet, and have boosted pops/QPF/snowfall from
the model blend output. This yields 1-2 inches north of Interstate
80, with a light dusting south. Would not be surprised if we
eventually need to consider an advisory with the arctic air in place
and SLR`s at or above 20:1. Snow with the first Clipper will likely
taper off Thursday evening in the northeast.

The next Clipper likely arrives Friday afternoon and evening, with
another quick 1-2 inches possible. Consensus pops favor the
southwest half of the forecast area for the most snow. Another shot
of bitterly cold air will arrive behind this wave, with wind chill
values to 25 below zero across the north.

For Saturday, the GFS is advertising an third Clipper, while the
ECMWF is dry. Have continued low pops for this period. What is more
certain is continue cold conditions, with wind chill advisory
criteria likely over much if not all of the forecast area Saturday
night and again Sunday night.


Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#78
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:27 AM

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Amazing how the EC is always the worst for snow...

 

Probably why its the best...


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#79
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:37 AM

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12z Euro...

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_102.png

 

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_102.png



#80
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:43 AM

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It leaves the snow in Montana...



#81
dubuque473

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:50 AM

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Take what I can get and I am happy with it right now.


Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#82
gosaints

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:51 AM

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After these last 2 full years the term "turd" should be retired... Turd patterns die hard...
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#83
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 10:59 AM

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12z Canadian is fantastic for the Black Hills; with almost continuous snow here from Hour 48 through Hour 120.

 

Of course the Canadian is terrible outside of 48 hours; so take it with a grain of NaCl...

 

As bad as the EC is for the Black Hills (maybe 0.2 - 0.4 LE depending on altitude); I'm still quite optimistic.  The GFS, Canadian, & UKMET all look good; they all look like at least 8 inches or more of snow from Thursday through Sunday.

 

Truth be told; the 12z EC was a slight improvement over the terrible 0z run for this area.

 

The ratio for the month has averaged around 23:1 out here...



#84
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 11:13 AM

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JMA actually look excellent for much of eastern Nebraska; though I'm not sure I would bet my life on it...



#85
East Dubzz

Posted 26 December 2017 - 11:20 AM

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JMA actually look excellent for much of eastern Nebraska; though I'm not sure I would bet my life on it...


I wouldn’t even bet a penny on the JMA.
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#86
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 11:29 AM

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I wouldn’t even bet a penny on the JMA.

 

Smart person...


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#87
Tabitha

Posted 26 December 2017 - 11:44 AM

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Deutscher Wetterdienst ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) model lookin' good through 72; FWIW; which is probably not much...

 

Not quite sure what it means; but it sounds impressive...

 

Take it to the bank...



#88
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 12:51 PM

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18z NAM looks better for IA peeps...trending towards the Euro and earlier GFS runs??



#89
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 12:58 PM

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The NAM has the Friday system cutting through the heart of Iowa.  Similar to the Euro.  

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#90
Hawkeye

Posted 26 December 2017 - 08:18 PM

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The NAM has the Friday system cutting through the heart of Iowa.  Similar to the Euro.  

 

And it's totally gone on the 00z.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#91
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:01 AM

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6z NAM wants a little surprise over Omaha into northeast Nebraska and western Iowa lol

 

snku_acc.us_c.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#92
GDR

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:48 AM

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Looks like 06z gfs misses Nebraska and puts the heavier band into central Iowa

#93
GDR

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:02 AM

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Through 84 hrs eastern neb looks good

#94
bud2380

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:10 AM

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A number of short term models are showing a band of heavier snow developing in western and SW Iowa tonight. Seems to dry up a bit as it heads east though.

#95
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:45 AM

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06z NAM likes IA...through the 29th....

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#96
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:46 AM

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According to NAM Saturday might be a fun day in Lincoln. I'm feeling lucky, I got thru TSA without getting my bag full of food checked just now!
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#97
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:47 AM

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06z High-rez NAM also likes IA...

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:48 AM

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OAX completely failed to mention Saturday's system. Why am I not surprised.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#99
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:55 AM

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00z EPS mean likes C IA/C IL as the corridor of the heaviest precip...00z Euro control hits all of IA with at least 2-4" and into C IL/C IN...E NE gets clipped as well...N IL roughly 1-2"...Nice overnight trends that did not look all to well yesterday.  Don't throw in the towel in a pattern like this.  These waves tend to deliver some interesting meso scale banding in such an cold air mass.



#100
dubuque473

Posted 27 December 2017 - 05:27 AM

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Local mets going with 2-3" here...

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40