Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 At this point, the GFS is the only model showing anything decent for most of Iowa Thursday, and each run is shrinking and drying the system a bit more. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 NAM continues to be way north of the GFS. Like a couple hundred miles. Stunning really considering this event is now about 36 hours from breaking out snow. I have a feeling the GFS will be more wrong than right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 NWS going with a 30% snow here for a couple hours for Wednesday night. Says snow will be northeast of Omaha. GFS was off it’s rocker when it showed run after run of 4-6”+ for eastern Nebraska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yup not sure what Kool-aid gfs is on but not looking good for Iowa but maybe a inch or two with these clippers coming through . Oh well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 yep, GFS with a big jump north. now in line with most of the other models. Still drops an inch or so down my way, but nothing like the 3-5" it had been showing for the past 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 2.3" for Iowa City I guess verbatim, but given the evolution of this storm, that seems overdone. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122612/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yup big jump north nothing but some flurries for my area. Looks like the weekend might be a non factor also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 The 12z is even further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'll take another 1-2" for a re-fresher and keep building up the snow pack around these parts as we head into January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 The 12z is even further north.Second wave on Fri hits S IA with 1-2"...these waves can be sneaky as we have seen in parts of NE/KC yesterday and today...esp with such cold air and good dendrite growth... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 I feel way out of the loop right now, but hasn't the GFS consistently showed 6"+ for a lot of us around like hr 114? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Friday's event is a thread the needle type system on the GFS. Looks like about 50-75 mile swath is all. Saturday is looking to be decent for Nebraska, but then either dries out or heads south from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS good hit for St. Louis and northern Missouri for the weekend system. But considering how bad it seems to be handling the Thursday event, I'm not putting much into it right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Friday's event is a thread the needle type system on the GFS. Looks like about 50-75 mile swath is all. Saturday is looking to be decent for Nebraska, but then either dries out or heads south from there. The Sat/Sun showing the CO Low coming out into the Plains is trending better for those out in the Plains/S MW....its trending better with a High over Low and could be a decent NYE storm system to track. However, we may be to far north for this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro was a little farther north with this system. Even if we get missed the LES looks to be the real deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro was a little farther north with this system. Even if we get missed the LES looks to be the real deal.I'm considering starting a separate thread for the weekend system. It's been on my calendar for a couple weeks and I hope the trends are positive today with the rest of the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'm considering starting a separate thread for the weekend system. It's been on my calendar for a couple weeks and I hope the trends are positive today with the rest of the models.Good idea as the system looks to lay down several inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Recent trends seems to fit in perfectly with this winter. And last. I’d rather just have it back into the 50s so I can hit the links. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Most of these waves have trended north lately so guessing weekend system might do the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 I think GFS is being cuckoo for cocoa puffs for the weekend. We're not getting WSW snows from this. Or likely more than an inch, if anything. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Most of these waves have trended north lately so guessing weekend system might do the sameIn fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend. I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Recent trends seems to fit in perfectly with this winter. And last. I’d rather just have it back into the 50s so I can hit the links. Welcome back. I haven't seen you post in a long time. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z Canadian is fantastic for the Black Hills; with almost continuous snow here from Hour 48 through Hour 120. Of course the Canadian is terrible outside of 48 hours; so take it with a grain of NaCl... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 In fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend. I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice.Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to thatTo be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to thatGFS shows big hits trends to almost nothing... Then performs about as to be expected maybe over performs where meso weenie bands set up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS shows big hits trends to almost nothing... Then performs about as to be expected maybe over performs where meso weenie bands set up The Truth always lies somewhere in the middle; in both temporal controversy & numerical weather prediction... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 To be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever.These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their ownFair enough. Based on my ideas/thoughts with this NYE holiday system, I’m going to believe trends hold. It’s been on my mind for quite a while so I think I have a good idea of its potential. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 2-3” looking like a good bet here tomorrow night into Thursday morning....at least per the NAM, RGEM and GFS. Although super dry air and a lack of real forcing appear to be limiting factors. If we Indeed get a few inches of snow next weekend is going to be a bit colder than the current cold snap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z Ukie... http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017122612/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_90.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Welcome back. I haven't seen you post in a long time.Thanks! I am usually more of a winter guy, and well.... our winters have been lacking, which doesn’t help. Plus I’m in the middle of my last year of college, so I’ve been really busy the past few months. Was hoping to get some nice storms to track over break, but I’m not too happy with what I’m seeing right now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 3E7136CE-64F1-44B7-8A69-41281F04ADD7.png. 12z through 384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Tom, you may wanna consider killing 2 birds with one stone and extending the date of this thread to include the weekend system. We're talking about the weekend in here already. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro keeps the heavier snow well into MN again this run for Wed night/Thursday. Looks like less than an inch here. Friday evening's system looks stronger right now and further north than the GFS. That one could lay down 1-3" wherever it ends up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Tom, you may wanna consider killing 2 birds with one stone and extending the date of this thread to include the weekend system. We're talking about the weekend in here already. DVN The first issue is a Clipper system that will affect at least aportion of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. TheGFS/GEM continue to be more bullish with QPF than the ECMWF/WRF,which limit most of the snow to north of Interstate 80. Not going todiscount the GFS/GEM yet, and have boosted pops/QPF/snowfall fromthe model blend output. This yields 1-2 inches north of Interstate80, with a light dusting south. Would not be surprised if weeventually need to consider an advisory with the arctic air in placeand SLR`s at or above 20:1. Snow with the first Clipper will likelytaper off Thursday evening in the northeast. The next Clipper likely arrives Friday afternoon and evening, withanother quick 1-2 inches possible. Consensus pops favor thesouthwest half of the forecast area for the most snow. Another shotof bitterly cold air will arrive behind this wave, with wind chillvalues to 25 below zero across the north. For Saturday, the GFS is advertising an third Clipper, while theECMWF is dry. Have continued low pops for this period. What is morecertain is continue cold conditions, with wind chill advisorycriteria likely over much if not all of the forecast area Saturdaynight and again Sunday night. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Amazing how the EC is always the worst for snow... Probably why its the best... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z Euro... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122612/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_102.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122612/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_102.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 It leaves the snow in Montana... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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