March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!

[Minny_Weather]

Gosh, if we had some warm air to work with I feel like this would be a major severe wx producer over here. Too bad we're not supposed to reach 60 today. Oh well, HRRR shows some good spring thunderstorms tonight moving through, can't complain about that!

Yeah I'm jealous I'm not there. Oh well, I'll be there most of April and May.

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON also steady, crush job for CR/IC.

[Iowawx]

12z ICON also steady, crush job for CR/IC.

Do you actually think CR could get 8+ inches?

[gimmesnow]

I'm so salty right now.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS about the same, 06z ticked ne and 12z ticked back sw.  The GFS appears to be having an issue with convective feedback over Iowa.  A blob of convection over central Iowa is creating a surface trough that pushes the rain/snow line back north over eastern Iowa, leading to lower snow totals through CR/IC.  It looks weird.  Each run is a little different with the rain/snow line because of this.

 

The GFS has been plagued with convective feedback issues forever.  I hope they can figure out how to get rid of it in future models.

 

Do you actually think CR could get 8+ inches?

 

Well, it looks like somebody will.

[Money]

A lot of weenies in this thread

[Tom]

A lot of weenies in this thread

Chill out man, let them have their fun...you'd be posting every single map of every single model if you were in the jack zone...lets get real Money.

[Hawkeye]

A lot of weenies in this thread

 

As always, I am perfectly fine being done with snow in mid March.  Bring on spring.  However, I'll never be able to shake the excitement of a potential biggie snow.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian appears to be even a little farther sw, maybe even taking the best snow just sw of CR.  I don't see the snow maps, yet, but the general precip map shows the heavy trowal tracking from central Iowa to just south of the QC.

 

Update:  Snow map ticked south an inch, but still clobbers CR.

 

[hlcater]

Yea. I'm generally done with the snow by mid march, but I'll be open to a big snow until early April. After that, I'm in severe mode.

[bud2380]

I've always loved Canada

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018032312/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

The HRRR keeps showing the heaviest band right through Iowa City.  This is only thru 3am or so.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032315/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[hlcater]

The HRRR keeps showing the heaviest band right through Iowa City.  This is only thru 3am or so.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032315/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Showing 6" thru 3AM with pockets of 12-14." Definitely a convective nature to that snow.

[bud2380]

UK looks like it shifted further SW as well.  I'd definitely be worried if I was in Dubuque.  I feel like CR and Iowa City are in a good spot either way.  A slight shift north or south still seems to put us in a good spot.

[bud2380]

Frankly i don't see any way that Johnson county isn't added to the warning and the counties one row south could be as well. 

[bud2380]

latest WSW wording is saying 6-9" with up to 12"

 

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches
expected, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible. Minor
ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. East winds will
gust up to 35 mph at times.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and north
central and northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates may peak between 1-2
inches per hour leading to significant reductions in
visibility and very difficult travel conditions. The heavy wet
snow may result in broken tree branches, which could lead to
sporadic power outages.

[bud2380]

UK has the heaviest band just west of CR and IC it looks like.  hard to tell from a national map though.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

[Hawkeye]

UK has the heaviest band just west of CR and IC it looks like.  hard to tell from a national map though.

 

Yeah, the UK just removed a chunk of the QC precip.  I would not be surprised if the euro moves the max snow band just sw of CR.  Coincidentally, the last three strong clippers that hit this area, two this winter and one last, all ended up dropping the best snow just s of CR.

 

We certainly don't want the heavy trowal Saturday morning to drop south before reaching CR/IC/QC.

[bud2380]

I'm hoping the Euro remains steady Eddie and looks almost identical to the 00z run.

 

HRRR has 5 straight runs now with the heavy band directly through IC.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032316/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

Euro held serve. Very similar to last night. May have moved north a tick. I’d have to double check last nights run again but Iowa City and Cedar Rapids both well within the heavy band. CR a little better

[hlcater]

Euro: Probably one if the best runs by a reliable model that I've ever seen for my location inside of 24 hours from the onset. Perfect Hiawatha bullseye.

 

[Hawkeye]

Euro held serve. Very similar to last night. May have moved north a tick. I’d have to double check last nights run again but Iowa City and Cedar Rapids both well within the heavy band. CR a little better

 

The 12z euro did, indeed, tick back north a bit.  Basically, last night's 00z run shifted two steps sw and now the 12z shifted back ne one step.  Dubuque, in the last three runs, has gone from 8 to 0 to 7.  Waterloo/CR/IC/QC all crush it.

 

[Hawkeye]

Euro: Probably one if the best runs by a reliable model that I've ever seen for my location inside of 24 hours from the onset. Perfect Hiawatha bullseye.

 

The big qpf is there.  Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+).

[bud2380]

The I80 corridor should get upgraded to a warning and a row or two of counties to the south should get in a WWA in Eastern Iowa. 

[hlcater]

The big qpf is there.  Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+).

With the strong, likely convective banding we will see, I feel confident that we see good ratios higher than 8:1. I think we have a shot at ratios even closer to 10:1 during the heaviest bands.

[bud2380]

HRRR is further south.  Still is blasting Iowa City run after run though.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032317/018/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

The big qpf is there.  Now, we just need to hope for decent ratios(8+).

By tomorrow night, you will have easily surpassed the seasonal norms in terms of snowfall.  I think 5" is in the bank and then some.  Good luck boys!

[Minny_Weather]

Shifting to the severe aspects of the storm, I think the people most likely to see severe hail would be those right along the KS/NE border. Namely those towards Central NE/KS. I'm not thinking Lincoln will get anything more than a routine thunderstorm.

[Hawkeye]

It is up to 47 degrees, here, but the dewpoint continues to sit at only 25.  Once the precip begins falling through the column, the temp will crash.

[Money]

With the strong, likely convective banding we will see, I feel confident that we see good ratios higher than 8:1. I think we have a shot at ratios even closer to 10:1 during the heaviest bands.

Eh

 

Always go on the lower side

[hlcater]

Eh

Always go on the lower side

We've seen higher ratios become realized in bands before, don't see a reason why this same rule won't apply here. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I seriously think we have a shot at periods of 10:1 snow. However, I definitely think this will mostly be 8:1 stuff.

[Money]

We've seen higher ratios become realized in bands before, don't see a reason why this same rule won't apply here. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I seriously think we have a shot at periods of 10:1 snow. However, I definitely think this will mostly be 8:1 stuff.

East coast just had this problem. The forecasts were way off because the good ratios etc never materialized

[bud2380]

having much of the snow fall overnight or in the AM  hours, I think will be very helpful to accumulations.  That extra degree or two cooler will make a difference.  

[bud2380]

i know this is a broken record, but the HRRR blasts Iowa City again.  Now up to 15" and the storm isn't even over at the end of the run.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032318/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

point forecast has been increased to 7" for North Liberty and to 9" for Cedar Rapids.  

[bud2380]

i-80 corridor added to the Winter Storm Warning and a row below added to WWA.  

[BMT]

WPC actually has E IA with a 30-40% probability of >12" and 5% probability of >18"... haven't seen that in a long time.

[Tom]

90%+ on the 12z EPS of 6"+ for a lot of the E IA posters...

 

[gosaints]

Not in the Midwest currently but goodnluck everyone. Quick glance at Iowa obs shoe low dew points with east winds. 20 degree dew point in Iowa City. That's good news down there. You should wet bulb well.

 

 

Not surprised money is downplaying...

[bud2380]

98% chance of 6" or more.  Not bad.