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1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

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#51
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 04:53 AM

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Took a glance at the EPS members and many of them were decent hits for members in the KC area, SE NE, IA, IL, IN and even into S MI.  Even the last couple runs off the FV3 have trended farther NW and N with the snow shield.

 

00z FV3...

 

fv3p_asnow_us_20.png

That would be fantastic, temps will be critical as pertains to ratios.  I am hoping for 8:1 or better.


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#52
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 05:05 AM

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That would be fantastic, temps will be critical as pertains to ratios.  I am hoping for 8:1 or better.

I'll be honest, I think if this system lays down a wetter snow for your area it bodes well for the snow to survive some of the warmer days ahead next week before the cold really locks in.  


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#53
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 05:07 AM

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That's true and I have a few mid 40s in the forecast for next week.



#54
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:12 AM

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12Z NAM (the 3KM NAM apppears S of the 12KMNAM at HR 60.

 

Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif   55.48KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:20 AM

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I'm punting. Any appreciable amounts look like they will be below the state line. I'm not counting on a drastic change. Congrats KC.
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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#56
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:43 AM

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GFS appears to be  S and weak and IS a dud for many. 


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#57
bud2380

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:49 AM

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GFS is very weak, NAM shifted south on the northern edge from the 6z run.  Looking at the black and white maps on the canadian, it also looks pretty weak in Iowa.  



#58
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:57 AM

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Yep CMC definetly cut back totals in IA (actually nearly everywhere) and further S and more progressive. Overall trends this morning are not like they were 12 hours ago. 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#59
GDR

Posted 09 January 2019 - 08:04 AM

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Yeah another bla on to the next

#60
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Ukie maybe a tad N from 00Z-- but it's hard to tell without any posting precip maps past 72 hours from last night. But it definetly better than the GFS and CMC at HR 72 for S.IA. Don't ever under estimate Uncle Ukie at this range-- it's 2nd only to the EURO at this time range. 

 

Attached File  P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif   235.32KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#61
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:14 AM

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On my phone and the 12z Euro looks amazing for a lot of posters.
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#62
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:18 AM

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IA into N IL certainly still in the game with a plowable system...looks like 2-6” across S and SE IA into N IL.

#63
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:20 AM

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On my phone and the 12z Euro looks amazing for a lot of posters.

Yep. Still tough for me tell- but it looks like even CHI town gets into the mix.  Way different than GFS and CMC - that is for sure. Will post a map ASAP


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#64
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:23 AM

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Yep. Still tough for me tell- but it looks like even CHI town gets into the mix. Way different than GFS and CMC - that is for sure. Will post a map ASAP


This run is even stronger/juicier and more widespread than previous 00z run.
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#65
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:23 AM

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12Z even further N than 00Z-- and that is saying something. 


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#66
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:28 AM

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So, the euro is going north while the others are going south.  


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:28 AM

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*
POPULAR

Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-96-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png   56.59KB   4 downloadsEuro- 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#68
hlcater

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:29 AM

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Oh I like that run.


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#69
hlcater

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:30 AM

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This run is even stronger/juicier and more widespread than previous 00z run.

Looks more phased to me??


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#70
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:34 AM

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Looks more phased to me??

Like what many AFD's said this AM. Perosnally I think the GFS is out to lunch and this without bias. The UKIE somewhat with EURO- both drastically different than GFS / CMC .  


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#71
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:35 AM

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I won't get more excited until the models agree.  If the euro shifts back south a couple counties, Cedar Rapids drops off quite a bit.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#72
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:41 AM

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Even S WI scores a couple inches off the Euro and our S MI peeps. STL crush job....
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#73
bud2380

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:43 AM

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That was an awesome run on the Euro.  It's been wrong everytime this year for my area, so we're bound to finally get one right!


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#74
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:45 AM

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Even S WI scores a couple inches off the Euro and our S MI peeps. STL crush job....

6-7in for me I'll take it.


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#75
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:49 AM

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If this storm comes to fruition- and that seems likely. I must give some credenace to the LRC posted on here by Tom and others. This seems to be very similar to the snow event in late NOV. Regardless of track- I'am impressed. Been in the weather field professionally for 20 years and I recently thought the LRC by Lexak was a joke. Maybe not so. The weather is nearly infintie in it's possibilites. I will look into the LRC more deeply- esp if this transpires.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#76
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

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If this storm comes to fruition- and that seems likely. I must give some credenace to the LRC posted on here by Tom and others. This seems to be very similar to the snow event in late NOV. Regardless of track- I'am impressed. Been in the weather field professionally for 20 years and I recently thought the LRC by Lexak was a joke. Maybe not so. The weather is nearly infintie in it's possibilites. I will look into the LRC more deeply- esp if this transpires.

Living in the KC area I have learned to lean on it.  I have seen many of its successes and even a few failures.  It is not easy to grasp fully, but it is by far the best long range forecasting tool I have seen.


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#77
FV-Mike

Posted 09 January 2019 - 11:23 AM

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Nice Euro run



#78
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 11:56 AM

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I like the shift N on the 12z EPS 2” snow mean across N IL and SW MI. Def nice trends on the Euro. IA peeps look good into the KC/MO region. SE NE may even get something out of this.
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#79
james1976

Posted 09 January 2019 - 11:58 AM

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Man that is a widespread 6+.
I'd lean toward the Euro. Not cuz it's the best looking run but cuz it's been the most consistent. I bet the offices will lean toward the Euro. Should be some good AFD's.
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#80
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:10 PM

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FV3-GFS drifting south like the regular GFS, CR gets little.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#81
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:30 PM

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18z NAM is slower and stronger.  It is juiced!



#82
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:37 PM

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18Z NAM-- again N. NICE!!! But still too much time. 

 

Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_081.gif   53.29KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#83
james1976

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:42 PM

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I think the Euro is onto something.....
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#84
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:42 PM

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That cutoff from N to S is again worrisome. Seems that way this year. At this point I'am just glad to have "cutoff" in my vocab.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#85
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:43 PM

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NAM and Euro beginning to come together.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png



#86
jcwxguy

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:35 PM

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Zoomed in
snku_acc.us_c.png
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#87
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:52 PM

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18Z GFS NOrth- compared to 12Z.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#88
snowstorm83

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:54 PM

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GFS is better for SE NE, but nothing like the NAM. I think the NAM is probably too juiced, 00z runs will be interesting. But yeah, I'd much rather be in St. Louis at this point. 


2018-19 Winter in Lincoln, NE: 55.5" of snow (2nd snowiest on record)


#89
Tony

Posted 09 January 2019 - 02:00 PM

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18Z GFS NOrth- compared to 12Z.

Baby-Stepping it's way towards the other models



#90
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 January 2019 - 02:33 PM

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Yeah NAM is way too juiced. In addition, I think we'll see the higher snow totals being more consolidated to finer areas as soon as tomorrow's model runs. There's no such thing as "share the wealth" anymore.


2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#91
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2019 - 05:23 PM

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Yeah NAM is way too juiced. In addition, I think we'll see the higher snow totals being more consolidated to finer areas as soon as tomorrow's model runs. There's no such thing as "share the wealth" anymore.

 

k, just keep punting your snow over my way. Half of 6+ is waaayyy better than half of nada over mby


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#92
bud2380

Posted 09 January 2019 - 05:30 PM

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18z Canadian.

Attached File  24639A33-CDCA-48E6-9B10-02BD0CBEF8D6.gif   138.99KB   3 downloads
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#93
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2019 - 05:41 PM

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looks pretty share the wealth to my eyes - nice


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 January 2019 - 06:22 PM

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0z NAM looks north and is giving me snow in Central Nebraska. What in the world?
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#95
Stormhunter87

Posted 09 January 2019 - 06:47 PM

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Well well well the nam says I should be paying attention. Quiet the development on the north side
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#96
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:02 PM

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The nam slowed down and has more snow farther west, but around here there's still a sharp north edge.

 

The 3k nam doesn't even get the snow north of I-80 in Iowa.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#97
snowstorm83

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:05 PM

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5-8" for Omaha/Lincoln and out towards the Tri Cities. It's gone so north this run that even Norfolk gets 2-3". Also an unfortunate dry slot SW of Lincoln. Have a hard time believing this solution.


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2018-19 Winter in Lincoln, NE: 55.5" of snow (2nd snowiest on record)


#98
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:08 PM

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ICON still doesn't get the snow up to CR.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#99
GDR

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:12 PM

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Attached File  8AD0036E-4BF5-4742-B880-9B3184F09081.png   617.4KB   3 downloads
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#100
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:14 PM

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8AD0036E-4BF5-4742-B880-9B3184F09081.png


If the NAM were to verify it would add to my good fortune this winter
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