Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Here's some useless knowledge as you head out for evening services...

 

Since July 1, 2014, an impressively warm period for the region, PDX has had only 19 hourly observations of 90 degrees or better (8 of which came on 7-1).  I would venture a guess this is significantly below average.  For comparison, 2009 had 82 hours of 90+ hourly readings and even the nipple-hardening summer of 2010 featured 21 during said period.  

 

Interesting...

 

What does it all mean????

 

 

Means that its been a spectacular summer.     

[Deweydog]

Means that its been a spectacular summer.

What a weird year!

[Jesse]

Man the GFS just keeps spitting out one solidly hot run after another.

[richard mann]

.... one solidly hot run after another.

 

Per my estimation, you should see some more assertively movement of colder air east from the 7th through the 10th, lending to some amount of let up.

[TT-SEA]

Remember those plunging SSTs and the anomalously strong high pressure of the coast in June?    I think I mentioned at the time that it would likely be temporary based on history.        

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.4.2014.gif

 

 

Also notice pockets of colder than normal SSTs in the Nino regions.     Neutral is much better overall.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem looks poised to hit 90+ for the 8th straight day today. See no reason why they won't touch 90 tomorrow either. 

[Jesse]

Salem looks poised to hit 90+ for the 8th straight day today. See no reason why they won't touch 90 tomorrow either.

Can't wait until we finally see a hot pattern!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem 89 as of 2pm....

[richard mann]

-
The main "wrap-around" moisture, north of low-center of the sub-tropical energy generated south and moving more northward, has made it to overhead of where I am today.
 
— No precip., just fairly thick cover.
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
 140804 22z wc 4km-ir   @

[BLI snowman]

-

The main "wrap-around" moisture, north of low-center of the sub-tropical energy generated south and moving more northward, has made it to overhead of where I am today.

 

— [N]o precip., just fairly thick cover.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

 

Produced some pretty active weather down in Southern California this weekend.

[Black Hole]

Nobody reads the mtn west forum so I just wanted to share that I had a peak rain rate of 12.52"/hr with a gust to 43 mph today. Yeah that was the most absurd thing I've ever seen weatherwise.

[richard mann]

-

.. So are you talking about, in Salt Lake City more specifically then Derrick. ?

— Time of day, otherwise. (?)

[Dan the Weatherman]

Nobody reads the mtn west forum so I just wanted to share that I had a peak rain rate of 12.52"/hr with a gust to 43 mph today. Yeah that was the most absurd thing I've ever seen weatherwise.

You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?

[richard mann]

-
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?p=30772   @
 
-
... A fairly isolated incidence and event, evidently. Not all that pronounced general appearance wise, at the broader scope view.
 
The main 6-min. doppler ("NEXRAD") images—either whether for whatever more specific station / "Doppler" site, or where considering a broader "Mosiac" more National, .. can be dialed in at this site-page accessible following. 
 
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/
 
Broader main "totals", here.  http://water.weather.gov/precip/
 
Main station "Storm Total" graphic, ending just before 8:00z /1:47 MDT for the 5th, screen-shot.
 
MTX-Storm Total time-ending 140805 0747z
 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mtx  - Main station, more current and updating. 
 
"METARs" for KSLC (in this case. Not MTX.), .. "translated" and for the "past 24 hours", …
 
.. show  "+TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm[s)" .. at 01:50 and 01:53z, tapering by 2:00z, ...
 
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/?station_ids=KSLC&std_trans=translated&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=past+24+hours&submitmet=Submit / http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/
 
— So earlier in the evening, just before 8:00 pm local.   @
 
$ .. Here, it is. - http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KMTX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140805&endTime=2&duration=0  .. from the "Nexrad" images / "NCAR" site above, dialed-in to 02:00z for the 5th. 
 
And screenshot, otherwise. - Nexrad for KMTX 140805 0158z

[Tyler Mode]

Finally a somewhat cooler morning low.  51.5 here in BG.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE running -8 compared to this time yesterday.

[Jesse]

EURO and GFS are really at odds in the mid-long range at the moment.

[Deweydog]

EURO and GFS are really at odds in the mid-long range at the moment.

 

Lean to the Euro.

[Jesse]

Lean to the Euro.

 

That's been my gut feeling. What would be expected further down the road if the troughier EURO pattern takes hold? My guess is that if we go into a troughy pattern in the next week or so it may solidify a ridgier September. Seems hard to get sustained troughing that starts in mid-August and carries over into the Fall without first experiencing a period of relatively higher heights around wavelength change time.

[Deweydog]

That's been my gut feeling. What would be expected further down the road if the troughier EURO pattern takes hold? My guess is that if we go into a troughy pattern in the next week or so it may solidify a ridgier September. Seems hard to get sustained troughing that starts in mid-August and carries over into the Fall without first experiencing a period of relatively higher heights around wavelength change time.

 

It's just more progressive and less meridional.  Progressive is more likely this time of year, and the GFS has already trended that way for this weekend/early next week.  

[Jesse]

It's just more progressive and less meridional.  Progressive is more likely this time of year, and the GFS has already trended that way for this weekend/early next week.  

 

I see. Makes sense.

[Deweydog]

The haze clearing out today was a nice touch.  

[epiceast]

Nice weather today.

[Jesse]

The haze clearing out today was a nice touch.  

 

We were up at Rainier yesterday and the cutoff was pretty distinct. Completely clear at Paradise Lodge but maybe just 20 miles to the south the air was very smoky. Could barely even see Adams.

[Deweydog]

We were up at Rainier yesterday and the cutoff was pretty distinct. Completely clear at Paradise Lodge but maybe just 20 miles to the south the air was very smoky. Could barely even see Adams.

 

It was pretty bad the last three days, even worse down around Eugene where it capped temperatures a good 5-6 degrees.  I still remember Summer 2001 over in Pateros where the smoke set in for a few days in August.  In Omak, highs were running 100-105 while we in the south valley held steady around 75-80 regardless of time of day.  It was bizarre and gross.  

[Black Hole]

You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3fjSkAFd2U&feature=player_detailpage#t=11

[richard mann]

(.. routed to the Mountain West sub-forum.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?p=30835

[Jesse]

Welp, now it's smoky here again.

[Jesse]

Oh NW winds and marine clouds, it's good to have you back.

[Phil]

Maybe I can please Jesse...starting to think September may not be as warm and muggy in the west as recent years based on the latest data/modeling of the tropics and lower stratosphere. For one, the 50mb data shows the typical shear zone associated with the -QBO developing, signifying a maturing thermal wind, which will soon be pushing the tropical- tropopause's buttons..giving the MJO free will over the shackles of the antecedent ENSO forcing..so the wave-train should be responding to the MJO instead of the ENSO system:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/8v3BsB/640.jpg

 

So, all and all, tropical forcings are changing their mold for the time being...suggesting that we see a drop in the AAM heading into August, and a temporary collapse of the Niño-esque circulations that have dominated since...forever

 

So, I'd anticipate:

 

1) A cooldown in the west, beginning in late-August, between the 25th and 30th, lasting for at least 10 days, perhaps up to 15-20 days depending on the amount of interaction between WPAC typhoon activity and the mid-latitude wave train..tricky one there..

 

2) An uptick in Atlantic hurricane activity, with the east coast possibly in danger between August 20th and September 20th

 

3) Easterly wind bursts over the ENSO domain, possibly counteracting the new KW that is now progressing east

 

4) A return to western ridging sometime in mid/late September, possibly persisting into October or beyond..though not too confident on that one yet

[Tyler Mode]

49 this morning and the sun rise is now after 6 AM...fall can't be far behind!

[Jesse]

Wonderfully breezy and fresh out today with a bright blue sky. It's been awhile since the sky has been this blue, with all the smoke around.

 

Days like today make the prospect of going back to hot, hazy, humid conditions seem all the more unappealing.

[Phil]

Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement!

 

#QBO #coupling

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gif

[Deweydog]

Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement!

 

#QBO #coupling

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gif

We're definitely gonna pay for this later. Cold/warm and/or wet/dry lovers beware!

[Jesse]

Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement!

 

#QBO #coupling

 

 

#westernridging∞

[Black Hole]

Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement!

 

#QBO #coupling

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gif

So with this referring to zonal wind anomalies are the positive and negative numbers east vs west, and if so which is defined to be positive? Or does it mean generally zonal vs meridianal(sp)?

[Phil]

So with this referring to zonal wind anomalies are the positive and negative numbers east vs west, and if so which is defined to be positive? Or does it mean generally zonal vs meridianal(sp)?

Zonal, (E/-, W/+) but this easterly belt is global and displaced N of the equator (between 10-20N). Already a sign of poleward-propagating AAM balance, which is a tell-tale sign of a -AO regime down the road

[Phil]

#westernridging∞

You'll like what September has in store

 

#easternridging

[Jesse]

You'll like what September has in store

 

#easternridging

 

I don't understand this phrase.

[Jesse]

Well the 12Z certainly takes things in a different direction.