April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[TT-SEA]

Some views of Lake Washington on take off this morning.    

[Phil]

12z GFS finally caved to the Euro with that weird TPV evolution over AK/Beaufort.

Trend from 00z - 06z - 12z. This poor model.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow check out the GEM!

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS finally caved to the Euro with that weird TPV evolution over AK/Beaufort.

Trend from 00z - 06z - 12z. This poor model.  

12Z GEFS still gets to the trough bridge over AK next week instead of keeping the trough parked along the West Coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is solidly team EURO. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is solidly team EURO. 

Might be about time for team EURO to flip to GFS/GEFS.    And then the GFS will go the other way of course!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Might be about time for team EURO to flip to GFS/GEFS.    And then the GFS will go the other way of course!

Could happen. You are gone aren't you? So why does it matter? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, long range GFS looks solid too!

[RentonHill]

This is how the next little ice age starts. April 2022 is the new January 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

This is how the next little ice age starts. April 2022 is the new January 2023

Snow pack in Southern Oregon could get back to 50% of normal. 

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could happen. You are gone aren't you? So why does it matter? 

Because I am cheering for spring and not a return to winter.  Like most people.    But you just have to take whatever nature gives you and feel blessed to be alive on this blue marble floating through space.   

[MossMan]

Think I will have an April 2009 redux today! Need to do some yard clean up from the wind and hail and should mow before my grass gets covered up by snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Spring doesn't really get going until late April here anyways, so I'm rooting for snow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

In 2012 looks like I logged 2" on 4/4, then 1/2" on 4/12. Though nothing after that until 5/25. 2017 was a colder and snowier April in Klamath Falls. Come to think of it there was one day around the last week of April 2012 it hit 80 or close to. The first 80 in 2017 was in May.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

In 2012 looks like I logged 2" on 4/4, then 1/2" on 4/12. Though nothing after that until 5/25. 2017 was a colder and snowier April in Klamath Falls. Come to think of it there was one day around the last week of April 2012 it hit 80 or close to. The first 80 in 2017 was in May.

That 2012 trough was really good. We had some decent snow with it. But it still melted by noon. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Spring doesn't really get going until late April here anyways, so I'm rooting for snow. 

It's full on spring now.   And you would cheer for frost and snow in July.    So of course you are cheering for winter in mid April. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's full on spring now.   And you would cheer for frost and snow in July.    So of course you are cheering for winter in mid April. 

As someone said the other day. You've been on a constant winning streak since 2013. About time we had 1-2 cold troughs. 

[FroYoBro]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Because I am cheering for spring and not a return to winter.  Like most people.    But you just have to take whatever nature gives you and feel blessed to be alive on this blue marble floating through space.   

You are so lame, haha. 

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Because I am cheering for spring and not a return to winter.  Like most people.    But you just have to take whatever nature gives you and feel blessed to be alive on this blue marble floating through space.   

I wouldn’t claim to speak for most people, but I wholeheartedly agree with your second sentence.  

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's full on spring now.   And you would cheer for frost and snow in July.    So of course you are cheering for winter in mid April. 

I still consider early April to be the tail end of winter. It’s roughly on par with mid-November here.

Spring doesn’t truly start until the second half of April, sometimes early May. And it’s very short lived, at least out here.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You are so lame, haha. 

Totally lame.  

[Phil]

EPS starts up the E-Hem forcing week-2. Clean MJO orbit.

From mid-May onwards, this would be a cold west/warm east pattern, however in April it leans cold for the majority of the CONUS.

Does seem as if the coldest anomalies should be on our side of the pole for most of April.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As someone said the other day. You've been on a constant winning streak since 2013. About time we had 1-2 cold troughs. 

Yeah... this is so wrong.    We have had more than our share of troughs and wetter than normal conditions in western WA over the last decade.   And plenty of snow.    July and August have been nice though.  Summers have been warmer than normal overall.       

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is so wrong.    We have had more than our share of troughs and wetter than normal conditions in western WA over the last decade.   And plenty of snow.    July and August have been nice though.     

I think you are breaking. 

[Phil]

Dr. Euro still much stronger with the offshore ridge and more elongated with the Alaska/Beaufort TPV vs the GFS by D4.

Any guess who will win?

[Phil]

Tim might be flying through some turbulent weather on the way to Charleston today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Tim might be flying through some turbulent weather on the way to Charleston today.  

Many Prayerz. 

[MWG]

Low this morning was 28F and currently 52F. Waiting for the scorching 86F temp tomorrow lol.

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think you are breaking. 

Breaking?   If anything it's the opposite.  We can go anywhere.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim might be flying through some turbulent weather on the way to Charleston today.

Pilot reported that as well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much weaker with blocking ridge next week... undercutting happening much faster.   This run shows a large rain event with lots of mountain snow around mid week.   40s and rain is much more common in April than 7 consecutive days with lowland snow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

20 minutes ago, MWG said:

Low this morning was 28F and currently 52F. Waiting for the scorching 86F temp tomorrow lol.

 

[Omegaraptor]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is so wrong.    We have had more than our share of troughs and wetter than normal conditions in western WA over the last decade.   And plenty of snow.    July and August have been nice though.  Summers have been warmer than normal overall.       

I mean... do you want above average temps and below average precip every single month?

That doesn’t happen anywhere. Ma’ nature’s trying as hard as she can in California and in parts of Europe... but it doesn’t happen anywhere.

[Deweydog]

Snow won’t stick anyway once we store up all this warmth in the ground the next couple days.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I mean... do you want above average temps and below average precip every single month?

That doesn’t happen anywhere. Ma’ nature’s trying as hard as she can in California and in parts of Europe... but it doesn’t happen anywhere.

We have had way more than our share of wetter than normal months in the last decade.     And just since September.  Every month can't be wetter than normal.  That doesn't happen anywhere either.   I will always take a dry month.    The best is when we get to a wetter than normal month with just a few big storms.   Efficiency! 

Do you ever cheer for warm and dry?    

[TacomaWaWx]

52 here after a low of 32. Hoping the high temps over achieve a bit today maybe get close to a 30 degree diurnal range. 
 Going to also take advantage of our first warm weather of the year and go camping out on Anderson island tonight…before winter returns this weekend. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We have had way more than our share of wetter than normal months in the last decade.     And just since September.  Every month can't be wetter than normal.  That doesn't happen anywhere either.   I will always take a dry month.    The best is when we get to a wetter than normal month with just a few big storms.   Efficiency! 

Do you ever cheer for warm and dry?    

How many cool/wet summer months have there been since 2013? Maybe one or two?

I think that’s where you’re really due for a change.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS going with the trough bridge over AK like the GFS and GEFS.  

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

How many cool/wet summer months have there been since 2013? Maybe one or two?

I think that’s where you’re really due for a change.

I said that summers have been nice.   But we certainly have not had any shortage of wetter than normal months in the last decade.     Ironically... the wettest summer in the last decade (2019) was during the driest year.   In general... its been getting wetter and warmer overall.    But then western WA used to have a tropical climate so it can get much wetter and warmer.    Also can get much colder and drier.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

How many cool/wet summer months have there been since 2013? Maybe one or two?

I think that’s where you’re really due for a change.

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